Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/19/16 Conference Championships

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This is the same information that Justin wrote up yesterday as it still applies since Game 2 is tonight

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis

Wow. Well, if the first game is any indication, this series is going to be over quick. That outcome wouldn't be surprising even in the slightest, but I was still somewhat shocked by the sheer dominance on the part of the Cavs. They got everything they wanted in Game 1 and had things clicking with every unit. One thing one couldn't help but notice was just how easy it was for the Cavs to get easy baskets, both in transition and in sets. Even when running half court offensive sets, they still got easy layups or wide open threes. Their ability to both efficiently is something the Raptors can't stop. That much is obvious. What's even more intriguing to me though (and of course this is looking way ahead) but this kind of offense can hang with the Warriors (or Thunder, but mostly the Warriors we were worried about). Last year's Finals Cavs were a shell group running everything through Lebron and relying on him to basically take 100% of the burden. Not this group. They have three-point shooting in abundance, can really hound you on defense leading to transition baskets and have shown they can play small ball for the entire game. This makes things really interesting as we look ahead to the Finals. (Yes, we're looking ahead to the Finals.)

Top Plays
LeBron James - FD 9800 DK 10800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
Kyrie Irving - FD 7100 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
Kevin Love - FD 7500 DK 8400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 36.35 DK Proj. Pts - 38.79
The only worry with these three is the blowout. In Game 1 they all saw reduced minutes because the Cavs had blown the doors off Toronto. All three were more than effective in their time on the court with Kyrie looking particularly deadly. He got to the rim over and over. In fact, Lebron and Kyrie combined to shoot 15-21 on closely contested shots. Meaning they were just in a layup line. In fact, Lebron and Kyrie combined for 32 of the starting units' 47 total field goal attempts. I don't think you can count on this kind of shot distribution going forward, but it speaks to how much trouble the Raptors had in defending both.

Love meanwhile didn't need to get his rebounding going enough to hit value on these prices. But this isn't to say it's off the table. I think you see an uptick in his production in Game 2 as Toronto possibly shifts its attention more to the big two.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 38.52 DK Proj. Pts - 39.57
The Cavs made it clear they are more than happy letting Derozan take as many long twos as he needs. He put up 11 shots from the right elbow or beyond. I suspect the Cavs love this and Demar only got to the rim twice. The volume alone though has him in play for DFS purposes and his DK price is cheap enough to consider if the Raptors can keep it even a semblance of close.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8600
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 40.32 DK Proj. Pts - 42.8
Shot 0-7 from three and that's basically the whole story. Lowry, like Derozan, had to live on the perimeter all night and it didn't even come close to working. Look for something in the way of a bounce back for Game 2 mostly because I don't suspect he misses every single three pointer in this series.

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
For a little while it looked like the Thunder were really going to make a true run at starting this series 2-0. But then Steph Curry happened. He had a third quarter to remember, shooting the lights out and basically putting the game out of reach for OKC in a short period of time. GSW was up nine at halftime and by the end of the third they were up 21. It was a display and a quick reminder of just how quickly the Warriors can step on your neck when the shots are falling.

OKC still put up a fight and I suspect they continue with the pressure as the game moves them back home. But the Warriors are just such a force it's tough to see them not ending up in the finals (something that really only game one put into doubt for me). Anytime you have two of the top 7 best players in the league (Russ and KD) you have a chance and staggering their rotations does leave room for them to exploit the opposing team's second unit. But if Golden State is going to get out in transition and hit the three then it's always an uphill climb.

Top Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.41 DK Proj. Pts - 56.83
Curry didn't have much going in the first half. The Thunder did an excellent job of bottling him up at point of contact and he only got off four three pointers by halftime. They also forced him into some ill-advised passes. But all that went away in the second and he was a superstar again. The blowout is less of a risk on the road for Steph and I suspect he sees major minutes in this one.

Draymond Green - FD 9400 DK 9500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.28 DK Proj. Pts - 48.78
It appeared (many, many, many times) like he was actively trying for a technical foul (or worse) in the second game. Jawing, staring down, chipping, just everything to get the Thunder riled up. But again he was a jack-of-all trades finishing with a 10/8/7/2/1 line in only 32 minutes.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10000 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Kevin Durant - FD 9800 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
Not really letting you in on anything new with these two. They are basically the whole team and if the Thunder are going to keep it close then it's only because they are playing major minutes and dominating the usage rates. Durant is in line for more run on a game-to-game basis but Westbrook has more potential upside because of what his skillset brings to the table. Both are borderline must plays on a slate where you have to get real picky with salary.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
Minutes are the whole story with him. Looked banged up in game two and is dealing with a bunch of little injuries. But he's still out on the court for a vast majority of the game and that's plenty of reason to keep playing him at these prices.

Dion Waiters - FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 17.8 DK Proj. Pts - 18.98
He's a better DFS fit on these short slates when he's coming off the bench mostly because he doesn't get caught in the OKC scoring shuffle. Running with the second unit opens up more shots for Waiters and the minutes are enough for the price tag.

Consider Festus Ezeli merely as a punt play and Andre Iguodala/ Harrison Barnes as cheap SF types.

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