Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces  - AT&T Byron Nelson

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AT&T Byron Nelson

TPC Four Seasons Resort - Irving, TX

Par 70 - 7,166 Yards

 

Jason Day extended his #1 ranking in the world this past week with a huge win at The PLAYERS Championship. That is now his 8th win on the PGA Tour in the last two season. When he gets hot the rest of the world should take cover. Starting at the US Open last year he finished the season with nine straight finishes inside of 12th with four wins. Coming into 2016 with momentum he scored a T10 at the Tournament of Champions but then missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. If you thought that was the end of the run, you were wrong. In eight tournaments since that missed cut he has picked up three wins, two other Top 10's and three other finishes inside of 23rd. Just amazing. It looks like he is in prime position heading into the summer to make a run at multiple majors and a Fedex Cup title. Stay tuned!

I hope you enjoyed the loaded field last week. While Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson will be here only 10 of the Top 30 in the world are in the field and Charley Hoffman is 3rd in DraftKings salary? I actually had to re read that sentence and then double check my cheatsheet for errors. Confirmed. He is 3rd in salary. Lineup construction is going to be interesting.

The course is the Par 70 TPC Four Seasons in Irving, Texas and stretches 7,166 yards. The course is tree lined with smaller fairways and undulating greens surrounded by a ton of bunkers. There are also water hazards that come into play all over the course. I will be targeting Ball Strikers(Driv Dist+Driv Acc+GIR)  with emphasis on the Driving Distance due to the possible conditions. There is rain in the forecast all the way up to Friday afternoon. With any Par 70 course I will also be targeting Par 4 Scoring and for the short hitters I want golfers who can score on the Par 5's. Even though there are only two of them on the course close to half of a players final score will come from there eight trips to the Par 5's and only two players in the Top 10 last year shot below -4 for the week. For cash games I have added a new stat in the past few weeks on the cheatsheet. I am using Scoring Average Before the Cut as it directly correlates with cut making percentage. All the key stats I am weighting are listed below:

 

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Ball Striking
• Driving Distance
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Scoring Average
• Birdie or Better %
• Sand Save %

I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.

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High End Targets ($9,000+)

Dustin Johnson
Vegas Odds - 7/1
Draftkings - $11,900
Fantasy Aces - $6,000

He comes in as the top play in my model this week that factors course history, stats, current form and odds. I am taking him over Spieth this week for a few reasons. First is course history(last five years). DJ has played here three times and finished 20th, 7th and 8th last year while Spieth has played here four times with finishes of 32nd, 68th, 37th, and 30th last year. For whatever reason the Texas native just hasn't been able to get comfortable here since his T16 back in 2010. Johnson also has current form locked up with 18 straight cuts made dating back to 2015. The 28th place finish last weekend was spectacular by any means but before that he had three Top 5 finishes in his previous four tournaments and a loss in the quarterfinals at the Match Play. He has the distance to take advantage of the longer Par 3's and the Par 5's and will be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 8
• Ball Striking - 50
• Driving Distance - 4
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 7
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 25
• Birdie or Better % - 3
• Sand Save % - 177

 

Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 14/1
Draftkings - $10,500
Fantasy Aces - $5,850

A non bomber sits #2 in my model this week. If you don't have the length off the tee it isn't the end of the world, you just need to be sharp in the most of the other areas combined. Kuchar is just that. He is Top 20 tee to green and scores on Par 3's, 4's and 5's and is a terrific scrambler. He has made the cut here in all eight trips to the Byron Nelson highlighted by two Top 10's in the last five years. He is coming off a fantastic T3 finish at the PLAYERS after a final round 68. He makes a great play in any format.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 19
• Ball Striking - 64
• Driving Distance - 156
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 31
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 30
• Birdie or Better % - 39
• Sand Save % - 82

 

 

Brandt Snedeker
Vegas Odds - 40/1
Draftkings - $9,300
Fantasy Aces - $5,600

After a T10 at the Masters last month it has been a roller coaster ride for Snedeker missing two of his last three cuts with a T25 at the Valero Texas Open in between. Hopefully a trip back to Texas this week can get him steered in the right direction as the US Open gets closer. He finished T6 here last year after putting together three straight rounds under 70 to close out the tournament. While he isn't considered a bomber he still averages over 290 yards per drive. He is elite on the Par 3's(8th) and Par 4's(13th)  and is also elite in Scrambling(11th) and Sand Save %(22nd). While I don't quite trust him in cash games I will roll with him without hesitation in GPP's this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 56
• Ball Striking - 89
• Driving Distance - 80
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 13
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 104
• Birdie or Better % - 30
• Sand Save % - 22

 

Also Consider - Sergio Garcia, Jason Dufner

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,000)

Ryan Palmer
Vegas Odds - 40/1
Draftkings - $8,900
Fantasy Aces - $5,200

Palmer makes a terrific value this week under $9K on Draftkings. He ranks 6th in my model and checks off all the boxes. He is a bomber(ranked 11th in Driv Dist) who hits a ton of greens and racks up birdies(19th in BoB%). He has good course history in the previous five years with finishes of 2nd, T9, T33, T22, and a T10 last year. After missing the cut at the FRYS.com Open back in October he has made 12 consecutive cuts on Tour including a T23 at the PLAYERS and a T4 at the Valero Texas Open. He is another Texas native who should easily make the cut and possibly be in the mix on Sunday. He is safe in all formats.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 51
• Ball Striking - 36
• Driving Distance - 11
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 96
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 3
• Birdie or Better % - 19
• Sand Save % - 81

 

 

Gary Woodland
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,500
Fantasy Aces - $5,000

Another bomber(ranks 3rd in Driv Dist) who comes back to Irving, TX with terrific course history. Since missing the cut here in his first trip back in 2009 he has made six straight cuts. He comes in with decent form(T28, T24,T20 last three) for a golfer in the mid $8K range and has a game that translates to TPC Four Seasons. He may not be the most accurate off the tee but he hits a ton of greens(ranked 26th in GIR) and destroys the Par 5's(ranked 3rd). He is ranked 18th in Scoring Average before the cut making him a safe play in any format this week for me.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 18
• Ball Striking - 40
• Driving Distance - 3
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 73
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 3
• Birdie or Better % - 54
• Sand Save % - 103

 

 

Graham DeLaet
Vegas Odds - 40/1
Draftkings - $7,900
Fantasy Aces - $4,900

Anytime we are looking for Ball Strikers, Graham DeLaet's name always pops up on my model. He ranks 33rd in Driving Distance, 64th in Good Drive % and 19th in GIR and 22nd in Par 4 Scoring Average. He comes back to TPC Four Seasons with nice course history as well with finishes of T41, T10, T7 and T22 last year. He is coming off a missed cut at the PLAYERS and awful weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship and will be ready to get back on the horse in search of his first PGA Tour win. The biggest thing that is holding him back is his putting. The undulating greens here at TPC Four Season somewhat bring the bad putters back to the field which benefits players like DeLaet a ton. And how can you fade that beard? You don't. The current form has him off my cash game radar but under $8K he makes an excellent GPP play.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 57
• Ball Striking - 21
• Driving Distance - 33
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 22
• Par5 Scoring Average - 161
• Birdie or Better % - 42
• Sand Save % - 164

 

Also Consider - Scott Piercy, Patrick Rodgers

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Jerry Kelly
Vegas Odds - 125/1
Draftkings - $6,700
Fantasy Aces - $4,500

At nearly 50 years old the three time PGA Tour winner no longer has winning upside but can still provide a ton of value in cash games at a very low cost. While he isn't the longest driver(ranked 92nd in Driv Dist) he is very accurate ranking 4th in Good Drive %, 7th in Proximity and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. He is an elite Scrambler(ranked 2nd) and is very good from the sand(ranked 35th in Sand Save %). He is a cut maker(11/13 so far in 2016) who has also recorded three Top 25 finishes. Lock him in your cash games.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 72
• Ball Striking - 92
• Driving Distance - 189
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 96
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 123
• Birdie or Better % - 188
• Sand Save % - 35

 

 

 

Also Consider - Mark Hubbard, Joe Affrunti

 

AT&T Byron Nelson Update Thread

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the AT&T Byron Nelson ? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.