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This is the same information that James wrote up yesterday as it still applies since Game 1 is tonight
Analysis
Could these two teams be coming into this game with more different post-season experiences thus far? The Raptors have played fully 6 more games than the Cavaliers over the same stretch of time, and are missing their starting center. They've been in back to back rock fights, reserving really any good play until game 7 of the Heat series, when their guards finally went off.
So am I crazy for saying I don't hate Toronto's chances to at least keep it close in these games? The Cavs are relatively weak when it comes to back-court defense, and the Raptors went out and got Demarre Carroll specifically for match-ups like LeBron. The Raptors shouldn't need to rely on Valanciunas' low post scoring here, and Biyombo is actually a welcome defensive presence down low for them here.
Top Plays
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
LeBron nearly averaged a triple double in the last two games of the Hawks series, and while the Raptors play quite a bit more slowly than the Hawks, the Hawks make up for some of their fast play by having the 2nd highest defensive efficiency in the league. When healthy, Carroll is a tougher defender than anyone who guarded LeBron on the Hawks, but he isn't. I don't know that LeBron has huge upside here, but he seems awfully safe.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 36.35 DK Proj. Pts - 38.79
The other two Cleveland stars are simply underpriced, here. The Raptors were the toughest match-up in the league for opposing point guards this season, but that didn't stop Goran Dragic from nearly leading the Heat to a win in the 2nd round. Irving should be able to show up in the 5x points per dollar range, here. But I really love Love here. I love love Love. Valanciunas being out means the Cavs can afford to play Love at the 5, and that would make it extremely tough for Biyombo to keep track of him on the perimeter. Love averaged 24/14 in the last two games of the Atlanta series, and this looks for all the world to be his coming out party.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 40.2 DK Proj. Pts - 42.68
Lowry finally put all the elbow concerns to rest in game 7, going off for 35 real points and 62 fantasy points. At these low prices, he's going to be awfully enticing given the match-up here. You can't strictly go by defense vs. position rankings, here, because against most teams the Cavs can hide Irving on the lesser of the two back-court evils. Well, DeRozan presents a much worse match-up for Irving than Lowry does based on his ability to get to the hoop, and I'd guess Lowry will be trailed by Irving quite a bit here. I like him in any format.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 38.48 DK Proj. Pts - 39.54
DeRozan didn't quite show up at these prices against the Heat, and it's going to come down to one question for most people playing today: Do you prefer him, or Klay Thompson? If I'm being honest with you, it's tough. I like Thompson's match-up better, but DeRozan shot 29 times in the Raptors' must win against the Heat. Valanciunas being out is a big deal because the Raptors will now be playing something between 2 on 5 and 4 on 5 offensively. DeRozan should have a ton of usage here, and I think he makes the most of it.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 29.97 DK Proj. Pts - 30.59
Biyombo was our top center selection before game 7, and he went out there and did just what we projected - he buried the Heat on the boards. With Cleveland threatening to go small here based on their previous games, I can see the Raptors following a similar line in this one. While Biyombo won't kill the Cavs offensively, his presence as an elite rebounder should keep the Cavs more honest size wise. Yes, Biyombo's expensive, and this is more of a separation play since the world will be playing Adams here. But I'm intrigued, especially because Adams is arguably a more likely minutes victim based on Golden State's lineup of death potential.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 18.35 DK Proj. Pts - 20.47
Our line-up optimizer liked Patterson for game 7 against the Heat, and he double-doubled easily with Whiteside sidelined. The Cavs will present a tougher interior challenge for the Raptors, but with Valanciunas out and the Cavs threatening to go small here, you could argue that Patterson's minutes are the safest of anyone this side of Lowry and DeRozan. You'll have to save up somewhere today, and Patterson makes a fine spot to do so.
Random cheap upside: Cory Joseph.
Analysis
The Thunder just keep on winning, and even after watching their last 3 games, I'm not entirely sure how. Sure, Westbrook and Durant are playing incredible (especially Westbrook) but I mean, come on, relying on a guy like Steven Adams to be your third scoring option? It's amazing what the Thunder have been able to accomplish with great rebounding, pestering defense and two superstars. If Game 1 is any indication of what OKC is going to bring to this series then I could see this thing going 6 or 7, whereas before I only saw it going 4 or 5.
Now Golden State didn't play their best brand of basketball last night, I don't think anyone expected them to lose Game 1 on their home floor. The issue was the second half for the Warriors, who seemed to get out hustled and outworked on their way to being outscored by 19 after half. Some of that was open shots just weren't falling as we're accustomed to seeing from Golden State, but you've got to give some credit to the swarming OKC defense. The key takeaway moving forward in this series is that while Curry, Thompson, and Green are sensational, the Warriors need to get some contributions (namely scoring) from 1 or 2 other guys if they're going to advance in this series.
Top Plays
Oklahoma City
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
If there's one thing to take away from the game last night it's that Westbrook is taking this matchup with Curry and the Warriors extremely personal. He struggled a bit in the first half of Game 1, but came out in the 2nd looking like a man possessed and pretty much single handedly got the Thunder back into the game. While Klay Thompson is a great defender, it appears that Russ is still too quick for him, and Westbrook was able to get into the lane and to the foul line even with Thompson on him in Game 1. In addition when Golden State switched on pick and rolls he was able to get any shot he wanted against whichever much slower defender switched out to guard him. I think Russ has massive upside in this series, and while I don't expect another 7 steal game, a triple double with, let's say 4 steals, isn't out of the question.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
The guy that is going to be owned by pretty much everyone, Adams is far and away your best PPD option at center. His price is still really depressed given the minutes and production, as he's seen at least 35 minutes and recorded a double-double in his last 4 games. It was interesting that Golden State went small as much as they did in Game 1, playing Bogut, Speights, and Ezeli just a combined 31 minutes last night. If this trend continues, Adams should be able to sustain his rebounding and second chance scoring because he's often the biggest guy on the floor. Until the Warriors prove they can keep him quiet in the paint, I'm rolling with Adams.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
While I personally like Lebron James more at the SF position, I'd be doing everyone a disservice if I didn't at least mention one of the best players in the league here. Durant had a pretty cold shooting night in Game 1, but was able to supplement it with 1 boards and 3 steals. Despite the cold shooting Durant was still the second leading scorer in the game behind Westbrook, and from my point of view his struggles from the field had more to do with him just missing shots that he normally makes than the Warriors applying some kind of special defense. SF is disgusting outside of KD and James, so if you can manage a roster with both of them I'd certainly go that route today.
If you want to go super cheap at SG you could try using Dion Waiters or Andre Roberson, although I tend to lean toward Waiters due to the fact that his minutes are trending upward and OKC is going to need his offense.
Golden State
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 35.51 DK Proj. Pts - 39.42
This pick makes a lot of sense here for a number of reasons. I don't love the matchup against Roberson, but he only saw 21 minutes of action in Game 1, and even when he was out there Thompson was able to do some damage against him. Because the Thunder need offense, Dion Waiters is going to get bigger minutes and let's just say he's less than qualified to guard Thompson anywhere on the floor. It's also worth noting that Thompson took the most shots in Game 1 for the Warriors, which is a trend that could continue if everyone not named Steph Curry and Draymond Green continues to struggle on the offensive end. Our system doesn't like him quite as much as DeRozan, but if Thompson is guarded by Waiter for 15-20 minutes a night, we could see some big numbers from Klay.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.35 DK Proj. Pts - 48.85
Our projection system likes Draymond here, but I like him too for reasons that are difficult to quantify. Green is the unquestionable emotional leader of this team, and I can only imagine how ticked off he is that the Warriors lost Game 1 on their home court. If anyone can have a huge bounce back game after only collecting 5 rebounds and 4 assists, it's definitely Green. With Westbrook looking committed to playing air-tight defense on Curry, Green should have plenty of opportunities to initiate offense and rack up some points. To me this game really seems like it could be one of those "Draymond does everything and ends up with 15/13/10/3/3" games due to how badly Golden State needs to win Game 2. The price is high, but I think the upside here is worth it.
Obviously you can go with Steph Curry, but I don't like him as much as Westbrook for the same price. Also, Andre Iguodala & Harrison Barnes make decent punt options at the SF position.
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View Comments
Any good advise for sleeper picks tonight?
A sleeper pick to me would be Channing Frye and Patrick Patterson. Love is sift and doesn't play defense, just look at what Millsap and Tobias Harris did to him in the past 2 rounds. Patterson is a good pick because he is consistently seeing 40 minutes a night and they will need him. I believe Cleveland could blow this one out by the 3rd quarter thus making Frye an interesting pick. Just my opinion. Please comment and let me know if you agree or disagree.
Terrence Ross
Awesome! Thanks
Any thoughts on Shumpert or Dellavedova?
I don't think Dela gets many minutes unless this turns into a blowout early.
Like Lloyd said. Unless the Cavs blow them out by the 2nd quarter and they rest their guys, I don't see Dellavedova or Iman getting those minutes. I don't believe CLE is as strong defensively like Miami is, so I can see this game staying relatively close. If Toronto can keep the score within 7-9 points, then everyone will hit their value because the minutes will be there.
CLE had a lot of rest before playing ATL in that game 1 and the game was a close game until the end. So there is some possible rust factor that could be there. I just think LeBron is going to go beast mode in this series. He is probably mad that he couldn't get to go up against Wade and is going to destroy the Raptors! Hopefully it's not a blow out!
So far Vegas has Cleveland at -11. They see it as a blowout. So keep that in mind when making your picks.
SC/KD or RW/LBJ? Who would you pick and why?
I'm leaning towards SC/KD
rw and lj they'll drop for sure 50 or more