Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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We already touched on Madison Bumgarner, Jamie Garcia and Juan Nicasio in a few different price tiers. Here we will look at some of the other pitchers to target.
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAD
FD - 43.78 DK - 24.7
Funny to think about him as not having been on the main slates' roll, but here we are. Kershaw is Kershaw and I'm not going to go through his superlatives. Ah hell, I'll give you a couple of tidbits. Amazingly he's pitching better this year than last (which barely seems statistically possible) but he's rocking a 1.90 xFIP and an unheard of 19:1 K:BB ratio. Those numbers are stupid. In fact, he has one less HR allowed than BB allowed. (3 vs. 4) The only cases against him (and they're small) have to do with price and his opponent, the Angels, are difficult to strike out. Kershaw isn't your typical pitcher so holding up an opponent (especially one as weak as the Angels) isn't perfect process. But you need an insane K day to meet his price tags. It's what's knocking him down some in our system considering the Angels are K-ing less than 14% of the time against LHP this season. That number is crazy low. Still probably the chalk play, but on a night full of great arms you can possibly get away from the price tag.
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TOR
FD - 35.61 DK - 19.01
Bad ballpark but Stroman has a couple of things working in his favor today. He's coming very cheap on FanDuel and you can see the big time pricing differences between the two sites. $11K on DraftKings compared to $7900 on FanDuel means somebody messed up somewhere. The truth is very much in the middle and I'll take the discount on FD. Stroman doesn't have elite K stuff but that number could tick up some tonight. The Rays strike out the most in the majors against righty pitching this season (26.4%) and lack much in the way of lefty raw power. Stroman also has solid ML odds for his price tier at -142. His salary will help roster more bats against weaker arms which is an issue on today's slate.
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 35.19 DK - 19.36
Where Stroman was strictly a FanDuel play, Chen is someone I can see rostering as a 2nd SP on DraftKings. The line's moved in his favor, starting at -102 and swinging down to -123 with a 7 o/u. The Phillies don't have much in the way of expected runs here and are near the bottom of the league in team wOBA against lefties. Chen's put up solid peripherals this season with a 4:1 K:BB and 3.63 xFIP. Doesn't have tons of upside because the K's aren't elite, but I can see him going far into the game considering the Phils' lack of pop.
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @ARI
FD - 34.9 DK - 18.95
Big savings on Greinke if you're rostering him on DraftKings and don't let the 5.26 ERA fool you. His xFIP is more than 1.5 runs less at 3.54. The latter isn't fantastic, but it's damn good for that DraftKings price tier. The Yankees have run bad at the plate this season, but are also not tough in the lefty power department. Greinke's struggled in two key areas this season which have led to the price dip. Namely, LOB and BABIP against. Both stand to regress to his career norms over the course of the season and this is a buy low situation on his pitching profile.
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View Comments
I feel like Kershaw is still the chalk. The low K% is mainly due to Simmons, Giavotella, Escobar and Pujols. Simmons is out and while the other three will most likely play, they are also facing the best left handed pitcher in the world. Also a NL matchup so he should get a free 2 Ks from Weaver which is better than facing another low K% hitter in Cron (If Weaver even lasts that long).
Yeah I totally agree. Low K% doesn't mean good hitters of course. I think he's chalky too. The issue though is that with so many good pitchers going today it is very hard to suss out solid, cheap value plays to fit into lineups. You have to sacrifice to get Kershaw in there.
Who u going with for dk pitchers cash Doug? I'm hesitant on Greinke . I'm stumped . System loves greinke but I don't
And how bout Chen nicasio? No need to go too expensive here I don't think
I actually really like that price point on Greinke. But I get the uneasiness.
$1200 saving from Kershaw to Bum is pretty huge and I like hedging some from FD with Bum on Dk.
Nicasio a good add as well. Solid park, weaker offense
Ya greinke and nicasio with loaded bats actually could work
Right this is the issue tonight. It isn't for lack of good pitching, it's that there is too much of it. Stacking teams is real tough and getting the ones with higher run expected totals is near impossible if you want a stud arm.