Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/16/16 Playoffs

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Toronto Raptors at the Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis
Could these two teams be coming into this game with more different post-season experiences thus far? The Raptors have played fully 6 more games than the Cavaliers over the same stretch of time, and are missing their starting center. They've been in back to back rock fights, reserving really any good play until game 7 of the Heat series, when their guards finally went off.

So am I crazy for saying I don't hate Toronto's chances to at least keep it close in these games? The Cavs are relatively weak when it comes to back-court defense, and the Raptors went out and got Demarre Carroll specifically for match-ups like LeBron. The Raptors shouldn't need to rely on Valanciunas' low post scoring here, and Biyombo is actually a welcome defensive presence down low for them here.

Top Plays
Lebron James
LeBron nearly averaged a triple double in the last two games of the Hawks series, and while the Raptors play quite a bit more slowly than the Hawks, the Hawks make up for some of their fast play by having the 2nd highest defensive efficiency in the league. When healthy, Carroll is a tougher defender than anyone who guarded LeBron on the Hawks, but he isn't. I don't know that LeBron has huge upside here, but he seems awfully safe.

Kyrie Irving
Kevin Love
The other two Cleveland stars are simply underpriced, here. The Raptors were the toughest match-up in the league for opposing point guards this season, but that didn't stop Goran Dragic from nearly leading the Heat to a win in the 2nd round. Irving should be able to show up in the 5x points per dollar range, here. But I really love Love here. I love love Love. Valanciunas being out means the Cavs can afford to play Love at the 5, and that would make it extremely tough for Biyombo to keep track of him on the perimeter. Love averaged 24/14 in the last two games of the Atlanta series, and this looks for all the world to be his coming out party.

Kyle Lowry
Lowry finally put all the elbow concerns to rest in game 7, going off for 35 real points and 62 fantasy points. At these low prices, he's going to be awfully enticing given the match-up here. You can't strictly go by defense vs. position rankings, here, because against most teams the Cavs can hide Irving on the lesser of the two back-court evils. Well, DeRozan presents a much worse match-up for Irving than Lowry does based on his ability to get to the hoop, and I'd guess Lowry will be trailed by Irving quite a bit here. I like him in any format.

DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan didn't quite show up at these prices against the Heat, and it's going to come down to one question for most people playing today: Do you prefer him, or Klay Thompson? If I'm being honest with you, it's tough. I like Thompson's match-up better, but DeRozan shot 29 times in the Raptors' must win against the Heat. Valanciunas being out is a big deal because the Raptors will now be playing something between 2 on 5 and 4 on 5 offensively. DeRozan should have a ton of usage here, and I think he makes the most of it.

Bismack Biyombo
Biyombo was our top center selection before game 7, and he went out there and did just what we projected - he buried the Heat on the boards. With Cleveland threatening to go small here based on their previous games, I can see the Raptors following a similar line in this one. While Biyombo won't kill the Cavs offensively, his presence as an elite rebounder should keep the Cavs more honest size wise. Yes, Biyombo's expensive, and this is more of a separation play since the world will be playing Adams here. But I'm intrigued, especially because Adams is arguably a more likely minutes victim based on Golden State's lineup of death potential.

Patrick Patterson
Our line-up optimizer liked Patterson for game 7 against the Heat, and he double-doubled easily with Whiteside sidelined. The Cavs will present a tougher interior challenge for the Raptors, but with Valanciunas out and the Cavs threatening to go small here, you could argue that Patterson's minutes are the safest of anyone this side of Lowry and DeRozan. You'll have to save up somewhere today, and Patterson makes a fine spot to do so.

Random cheap upside: Cory Joseph.
 

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
Note: Prices have changed dramatically in this series! While the analysis is similar, the prices are different, and the picks are very different as well.
I'm as surprised as you, believe me. It seemed rather inconceivable the Thunder could pull out a series win against the Spurs. That they did it in six games, taking two of them in San Antonio where the Spurs had lost one game all season (to the Warriors), put it even that much more in the "whaaaaaa?" category. But the Thunder came out with a ton of energy and a big lineup, giving the Spurs fits.

I don't know if we will continue to see the same thing against the Warriors. It's one thing to play Steven Adams 40 minutes against a Spurs squad with Aldridge and Duncan. It's another against Golden State who can and will small ball you to death. Short story short, I can't wait to see how this plays out. My gut tells me Golden State finishes this in six games or less. But I thought much the same about the Spurs.

Top Plays
Oklahoma City
Kevin Durant - FD 10000 DK 9900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.19
My favorite big money play today, and it isn't even close. Yes, Westbrook will try and get his against Curry, but did you see what Durant did to the Dubs this year? He put up a 32/10/9, a 37/12/5, and a 40/14/5. You read those right. Unlike the Spurs, the Warriors who have no one that can come close to hanging with him. Bogut might play extra minutes and they can try and send this assignment Draymond's way, but that leaves the Warriors very small against Ibaka. The fact of the matter is KD is probably going to be guarded by someone with no chance, and given the eye of the tiger KD we saw at the end of the Spurs series, I'm bracing myself for a few monsters.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.29 DK Proj. Pts - 27.79
Still not priced to his minutes, especially on FanDuel. On the surface this really isn't a great match-up for Adams. It might be hard for him to stay on the floor if Golden State decides to go uber small, but the Thunder showed they weren't afraid of letting Adams loose on Aldridge in the Spurs series, and he's athletic enough to track Draymond if it comes to that. If he's out there he'll have a great rebounding advantage, and would be deadly in the pick and roll against a small line-up. It'll be interesting to see if Bogut plays big minutes here (which would depress Adams' value), but he's still just not priced for his minutes. I'm playing him.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10100 DK 11300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Westbrook was his usual frantic (and awesome) self against the Spurs, and it stands to reason that that should continue in a faster paced series with the Warriors. I'm hoping we get the 20/14/13 Westbrook instead of the 37 (on 30 shots)/6/4 Westbrook, and given how the last series played out, I'm actually fairly confident that we will. I like him considerably better than Curry at similar prices, given the injury issues there. Weird side note: Westbrook's price has dropped $1k, but so has Curry's, so all of the analysis still stands.

Which Ibaka are we getting? It's the big question. Ibaka was relevant again in game 6 of the Spurs series, but had been in a prolonged disappearing act before then. I'm nervous playing him, but I might need to given how bad PF looks today.

Golden State
So the sites threw a big monkey wrench out there by reducing the prices of the Golden State stars a ton before game 1 even began.

Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.8 DK Proj. Pts - 53.99
All of a sudden Steph is wildly affordable! And it's a spot where you'd love to play him, of course. His usage has gone up (when healthy) in the playoffs, and he was somewhere between solid and great in his three games against the Thunder this season. He went 26/6/10, 33/4/4, and 46/3/6 against them, and Westbrook seems more wired to try and gamble for steals and get it back on the offensive end than try and lock anyone down. I didn't like him at $11k, but you have to consider him at $10k.

Draymond Green - FD 9600 DK 10400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.35 DK Proj. Pts - 48.85
Green was actually pretty bad against the Thunder this season, but our projection system is bullish on him today thanks to his increase role during the postseason. At similar prices I'd much rather play Westbrook (or even LeBron), but if you wind up liking other options at those positions on a short slate Draymond is a serviceable fill in. The minutes aren't in question of course, but at this stage that can be said for all of the stars here.

I don't mind the small forward value here - both Barnes and Iggy should be fairly solid - and I think we could see a huge Bogut game if he plays high 20s minutes, which is totally in play. But all in all, I'm just not thrilled at the value here. Still, someone is going to score a lot of points, and I don't blame you if you try and figure out who.

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