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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/16/16 Playoffs
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Toronto Raptors at the Cleveland Cavaliers
Analysis
Could these two teams be coming into this game with more different post-season experiences thus far? The Raptors have played fully 6 more games than the Cavaliers over the same stretch of time, and are missing their starting center. They've been in back to back rock fights, reserving really any good play until game 7 of the Heat series, when their guards finally went off.
So am I crazy for saying I don't hate Toronto's chances to at least keep it close in these games? The Cavs are relatively weak when it comes to back-court defense, and the Raptors went out and got Demarre Carroll specifically for match-ups like LeBron. The Raptors shouldn't need to rely on Valanciunas' low post scoring here, and Biyombo is actually a welcome defensive presence down low for them here.
Top Plays
Lebron James
LeBron nearly averaged a triple double in the last two games of the Hawks series, and while the Raptors play quite a bit more slowly than the Hawks, the Hawks make up for some of their fast play by having the 2nd highest defensive efficiency in the league. When healthy, Carroll is a tougher defender than anyone who guarded LeBron on the Hawks, but he isn't. I don't know that LeBron has huge upside here, but he seems awfully safe.
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Love
The other two Cleveland stars are simply underpriced, here. The Raptors were the toughest match-up in the league for opposing point guards this season, but that didn't stop Goran Dragic from nearly leading the Heat to a win in the 2nd round. Irving should be able to show up in the 5x points per dollar range, here. But I really love Love here. I love love Love. Valanciunas being out means the Cavs can afford to play Love at the 5, and that would make it extremely tough for Biyombo to keep track of him on the perimeter. Love averaged 24/14 in the last two games of the Atlanta series, and this looks for all the world to be his coming out party.
Kyle Lowry
Lowry finally put all the elbow concerns to rest in game 7, going off for 35 real points and 62 fantasy points. At these low prices, he's going to be awfully enticing given the match-up here. You can't strictly go by defense vs. position rankings, here, because against most teams the Cavs can hide Irving on the lesser of the two back-court evils. Well, DeRozan presents a much worse match-up for Irving than Lowry does based on his ability to get to the hoop, and I'd guess Lowry will be trailed by Irving quite a bit here. I like him in any format.
DeMar DeRozan
DeRozan didn't quite show up at these prices against the Heat, and it's going to come down to one question for most people playing today: Do you prefer him, or Klay Thompson? If I'm being honest with you, it's tough. I like Thompson's match-up better, but DeRozan shot 29 times in the Raptors' must win against the Heat. Valanciunas being out is a big deal because the Raptors will now be playing something between 2 on 5 and 4 on 5 offensively. DeRozan should have a ton of usage here, and I think he makes the most of it.
Bismack Biyombo
Biyombo was our top center selection before game 7, and he went out there and did just what we projected - he buried the Heat on the boards. With Cleveland threatening to go small here based on their previous games, I can see the Raptors following a similar line in this one. While Biyombo won't kill the Cavs offensively, his presence as an elite rebounder should keep the Cavs more honest size wise. Yes, Biyombo's expensive, and this is more of a separation play since the world will be playing Adams here. But I'm intrigued, especially because Adams is arguably a more likely minutes victim based on Golden State's lineup of death potential.
Patrick Patterson
Our line-up optimizer liked Patterson for game 7 against the Heat, and he double-doubled easily with Whiteside sidelined. The Cavs will present a tougher interior challenge for the Raptors, but with Valanciunas out and the Cavs threatening to go small here, you could argue that Patterson's minutes are the safest of anyone this side of Lowry and DeRozan. You'll have to save up somewhere today, and Patterson makes a fine spot to do so.
Random cheap upside: Cory Joseph.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
Analysis
Note: Prices have changed dramatically in this series! While the analysis is similar, the prices are different, and the picks are very different as well.
I'm as surprised as you, believe me. It seemed rather inconceivable the Thunder could pull out a series win against the Spurs. That they did it in six games, taking two of them in San Antonio where the Spurs had lost one game all season (to the Warriors), put it even that much more in the "whaaaaaa?" category. But the Thunder came out with a ton of energy and a big lineup, giving the Spurs fits.
I don't know if we will continue to see the same thing against the Warriors. It's one thing to play Steven Adams 40 minutes against a Spurs squad with Aldridge and Duncan. It's another against Golden State who can and will small ball you to death. Short story short, I can't wait to see how this plays out. My gut tells me Golden State finishes this in six games or less. But I thought much the same about the Spurs.
Top Plays
Oklahoma City
Kevin Durant - FD 10000 DK 9900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.19
My favorite big money play today, and it isn't even close. Yes, Westbrook will try and get his against Curry, but did you see what Durant did to the Dubs this year? He put up a 32/10/9, a 37/12/5, and a 40/14/5. You read those right. Unlike the Spurs, the Warriors who have no one that can come close to hanging with him. Bogut might play extra minutes and they can try and send this assignment Draymond's way, but that leaves the Warriors very small against Ibaka. The fact of the matter is KD is probably going to be guarded by someone with no chance, and given the eye of the tiger KD we saw at the end of the Spurs series, I'm bracing myself for a few monsters.
Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.29 DK Proj. Pts - 27.79
Still not priced to his minutes, especially on FanDuel. On the surface this really isn't a great match-up for Adams. It might be hard for him to stay on the floor if Golden State decides to go uber small, but the Thunder showed they weren't afraid of letting Adams loose on Aldridge in the Spurs series, and he's athletic enough to track Draymond if it comes to that. If he's out there he'll have a great rebounding advantage, and would be deadly in the pick and roll against a small line-up. It'll be interesting to see if Bogut plays big minutes here (which would depress Adams' value), but he's still just not priced for his minutes. I'm playing him.
Russell Westbrook - FD 10100 DK 11300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Westbrook was his usual frantic (and awesome) self against the Spurs, and it stands to reason that that should continue in a faster paced series with the Warriors. I'm hoping we get the 20/14/13 Westbrook instead of the 37 (on 30 shots)/6/4 Westbrook, and given how the last series played out, I'm actually fairly confident that we will. I like him considerably better than Curry at similar prices, given the injury issues there. Weird side note: Westbrook's price has dropped $1k, but so has Curry's, so all of the analysis still stands.
Which Ibaka are we getting? It's the big question. Ibaka was relevant again in game 6 of the Spurs series, but had been in a prolonged disappearing act before then. I'm nervous playing him, but I might need to given how bad PF looks today.
Golden State
So the sites threw a big monkey wrench out there by reducing the prices of the Golden State stars a ton before game 1 even began.
Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.8 DK Proj. Pts - 53.99
All of a sudden Steph is wildly affordable! And it's a spot where you'd love to play him, of course. His usage has gone up (when healthy) in the playoffs, and he was somewhere between solid and great in his three games against the Thunder this season. He went 26/6/10, 33/4/4, and 46/3/6 against them, and Westbrook seems more wired to try and gamble for steals and get it back on the offensive end than try and lock anyone down. I didn't like him at $11k, but you have to consider him at $10k.
Draymond Green - FD 9600 DK 10400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.35 DK Proj. Pts - 48.85
Green was actually pretty bad against the Thunder this season, but our projection system is bullish on him today thanks to his increase role during the postseason. At similar prices I'd much rather play Westbrook (or even LeBron), but if you wind up liking other options at those positions on a short slate Draymond is a serviceable fill in. The minutes aren't in question of course, but at this stage that can be said for all of the stars here.
I don't mind the small forward value here - both Barnes and Iggy should be fairly solid - and I think we could see a huge Bogut game if he plays high 20s minutes, which is totally in play. But all in all, I'm just not thrilled at the value here. Still, someone is going to score a lot of points, and I don't blame you if you try and figure out who.
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image sources
- Stephen Curry: (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
50 Visitor Comments
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Thunder-Warriors is going to be so fun to watch. Great breakdown, James
FD
Lowry
Curry
J.R.
Roberson
Durant
Iggy
Love
PP
BB
Go cheap at PG or SG? Does Shump get some time? Thoughts/ advice please. Thanks
Today’s FantasyAces Lineup:
G K.Lowry 36.14 6,300.00
G D.DeRozan 33.61 5,900.00
G J.Smith 19.74 4,300.00
F K.Love 33.01 6,300.00
F S.Ibaka 25.08 4,650.00
F H.Barnes 20.18 4,400.00
C S.Adams 22.24 5,200.00
Util P.Patterson 15.99 4,100.00
Util D.Carroll 17.91 3,800.00
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GK.Thompson34.026,700.00
GK.Lowry36.146,300.00
GJ.Smith19.744,300.00
FK.Love33.016,300.00
FS.Ibaka25.084,650.00
FP.Patterson15.994,100.00
CT.Thompson21.554,500.00
UtilD.Waiters16.213,800.00
UtilD.Carroll17.913,800.00
Why is the optimizer only giving me 1 lineup?
We pushed through updates last night that seem to have caused issues in other places. We are working to resolve now.
Do you guys see a situation where Kanter get’s more than 21 minutes? I really like him in this series, I think he will fit more with the flow than Adams. Adams made a lot of sense to band with SA’s bigs, but I just think they will need Kanter offensive abilities. Thoughts?
Unfortunately Golden State doesn’t run a lot of big’s on the floor like the Spurs. I think you’ll see Kanter’s minutes trend in the wrong direction in this series as it’s a HUGE pace up game from the Spurs. Don’t be surprised to see the Warriors use Green at C a lot tonight with Bogut questionable. Pulls Adams away from the basket and gives the team the spacing they thrive on.
Thoughts on T. Thompson at Center? Maybe a good punt?
Curry. Westbrook. Smith. Waiters. Caroll. James. Ibaka. Love. Ezeli. Westbrook. Curry. Robertson. Caroll. Durant. Patterson. Love. Thompson. Westbrook. Irving. Smith. Shumpert. Durant. James. Patternson. Ibaka. Kanter. Curry. Irving. Smith. Derozan. Durant. Barnes. Ibaka. Patterson. Biyombo. Thoughts/Advice on the lineups. Thanks.
Post your lineup in a way that isn’t so annoying to read would be my advice
They say only 1% win the big payout dollars regularly. I’ve never won over $100. Can anybody who is in that big winner 1%. Could some tips Oone in that big win 1% give me some tips on how to win or what the key is? I love to play. Just wanna win a little.
It’s just a luck of the draw, sometimes players you think going to do well will dud on you. And players you don’t expect to do well will be the different maker. Trying to roster all the elite players only make it harder for you to win. Look at the top winners they never have all elite players. You have to differentiate your rosters. For ex. Roberson from OKC put 29 fpts. in game 6 that was the different maker. Winslow 28 fpts in Game 7, Channing Frye Game 3…
This is my DK Lineup I think it’s a winner to, and I am disagreeing with The Walrus82 here I think Enes Kanter is the man tonight for me-
PG Cory Joseph
SG Andre Roberson
SF Harrison Barnes
PF Channing Frye
C Enes Kanter
G Stephen Curry
F Kevin Durant
UTIL R. Westbrook
I am skeptical about Kanter’s productivity, although he should see good court minutes in this one. Decent option to save a few bucks and roster those other players though. That looks like a pretty solid lineup.
I think GS goes small most of the game and Kanter plays fewer minutes because of it. Also, I hope everybody chases points with Roberson tonight.
My DK lineup from yesterday and today. Thoughts on goin cheap at C in order to get Stph and Russ both, since Bogut is Q
Westbrook
J Rich
Durant
Ibaka
Speights
Curry
Carroll
Roberson
I was never a fan of paying to get info. On here but I read the updates everyday and after using that info. As well as some of my own intuition I won the nba $4 contest that had a total payout of $250,000 and $50,000 for first. I had never won more than $200 before I found this site. I will say this though, you need to use this info. As well as have that one or two players that don’t cost alot that have a great night. (The night I won was game 7 of Portland and golden state and Crabbe and Ed Davis were huge for me.)
Won first? That’s awesome!!
That’s great & all, but PTL/GSW did not go to 7 games.
Steve do you have a screenshot of that win? Would love to plaster it on my vision board! Congrats on that!
Thanks for all the great advice everyone!! And I agree, this site is awesome. I’ve paid for a couple others that sucked. Love the comments from all you guys on here.
It’s fixed, that’s how only 1% win. If you click on top 3 winners for NBA on fanduel, 99% of the time they have no win/loss history besides that night. It’s a business people. Tell me a business that will stay open where the average joe cleans up. No casino I know of. It’s designed to let you win anywhere from $4 to a thousand or two to keep you coming back, never the big ones. That would break their business model. So that’s why they have these bot lineups or employees winning the big prizes, to keep the fraud going. Football is just as big of a joke for tourneys. Baseball as well.
Steve what’s your lineup tonight? I have come so close in these playoffs… I won 9,500 for first place back in January on draftkings football, but I haven’t quite mastered basketball yet. I’m trying to decide whether not to use the big names at all tonight
TM you’re a dumbass. If you get the lineup right, you get it right. I’ve won 1st place among 75,000 people. I play daily and I continue to try to win. It’s totally possible, and realistic, just don’t be a chump and ride the same waves as everyone else. Differentiate and you can win.
Do most of you guys who win play max bets?
Curry or westbrook for cash games on FD? Or stack them both?
Starting Speights or Ezeli over Bogut in order to get Steph and Russ? Advice on the C position for GS. Thanks
I agree with TM though Austin. There are no real regulations and you can’t see ‘every’ single player during the game. They very well could be doing it and I’m sure they are. I’ve hit some big winners as well, but I’d guess 1/4 or even 1/3 of those top payouts are bots…how would we ever know?
Troy – Even if Bogut plays tonight he’ll probably be fairly limited. Liking Ezeli, Speights and Kanter tonight.
Ok thanks appreciate the advice!!!
Hoping Speights or Ezeli return some value, gotta risk somewhere to get top 2 PG’s and KD in there
All I’m saying is it isn’t in these companies best interest to pay out millions of dollars to average people. They want us depositing, winning a little and losing a lot. It’s all computerized of course it’s controlled by fanduel and draftkings. If you believe otherwise, it’s you that’s the dumbass. These companies are here to make money, not make us rich. If average people were winning these like commercials advertise , it would be covered like crazy in the news. Better chance of winning powerball than hitting the magical winning lineup that beats their bots. Look at the paid optimizer on this site. I used it for two months never won more than $4 with it. And people will say oh you have to swap out some players it spits out ….then what’s the point in paying for it if I still have to do the work , and still lose using it? I can win $4 on my own without paying $30/a month for a computer to lose for me
DK and Fanduel take a cut from every tournament people enter. That’s how they get their money. It doesn’t take a genius to know that just by looking at the payouts. If u think it’s fixed then don’t play and we can move on without you. Obviously you don’t win so don’t play. Why do u feel the need to come and complain on this site when it’s used for these websites? Cry me a river TM and go away
You do know you’re playing Poker,right?!
If you are the casual player you are playing penny anti and if it’s your job… You are doing the work to win the big pots not crying about the computer algorithms losing your money!!
I don’t think its rigged, I finished tied 2nd in one contest won $170(overall winner won by .70 a point)and another scenario where I won $175 combined in 3 contests
What do you guys think about this cash lineup for fanduel
Curry
Lowry
Smith
Waiters
KD
Barnes
Love
Patterson
Adams
TM…. Go cry to mommy 🙂 clearly I’m not a dumbass considering I’ve netted over 10,000 on draftkings in 2016. And you’re clearly retarded, considering you’re the one paying for optimized lineups. Use your brain, and your gut. Let me give you some advice, you need to change your perspective. Right when you enter a game, you should already come to terms with losing that $3 or whatever. The odds are stacked against you, and everybody is going to make lineups with the same people on a short slate. For instance tonight, everyone’s going cheap with Roberson and Ezeli, speights, Ross, Frye etc… Because they want to stack their teams with all the most expensive all stars. DONT DO THAT. get ballsy! Get creative! Take a chance! Big risks being big rewards. Odds are you’re going to lose anyways, so why not lose while taking a chance. You have to take chances like this and it’s hard to do, because you feel like your guaranteeing yourself a loss by doing so, but DIFFERENTIAITE. Write that entry fee off mentally and accept it as gone, and start to make your decisions based on not playing it safe, or you’ll never win big. Sure you can pick Westbrook, curry, durant, and squeeze them into the same lineup because they’re averaging around 50 points a piece, but if they don’t pay off, you’re out. Why pay 11,400 for Westbrook who may get around 60 points tonight when you could pay 8500 for Lowry who will get you around 50 points and save you 3000 to add to one of your punt plays. You need to change your perspective on the game. I was about the throw in the towel until I won 9,500 and now I know it’s possible. I beat the odds. So can you. If your focused on playing it safe in order not to lose your entry fee, you’ll never win a significant prize. The way I see it, your already pissing away 3 bucks, so take a chance. Fuck it, what’s 3 bucks in the long run….
Well said
@TM your mindset is the number one reason you’re not building a bankroll. Stop chasing tourney wins. Go after 50/50’s and double ups, I know its not as exciting as winning a big tourney but believe me, it pays off when you only have to beat out 50% of the comp. My current ratio is 80% cash games and 20% GPP’s. Try it out. But since its such a short slate, change it to 90/10.
Exactly, people who think they can just take down tournaments on a regular basis will be disappointed. I’ve won a couple small ones and finished high in some big ones but my money is made in 50/50s. Don’t complain that u didn’t get rich with the projections you were given. Everybody wants to win, very few do. Play smart and like Austin said, be ready to accept that your money u bet is gone by the end of the night
For my 2nd sf , Barnes, Iggy or Carroll? FD cash game. Need some advice.
https://twitter.com/jdjohndickinson/status/732357525467627520
Bogut warming up – looks pretty loose!
I would choose Barnes to be honest
Does anyone trust Frye?
Dude I don’t know whether to build my lineups around Speights or Adams…. or Ezeli…. If I had to guess, Speights will outplay Ezeli. Speights has had more minutes and has been the guy that fills in when needed, of course Ezeli is coming off an injury so that may be the cause. But I have seen speights play a lot lately, not Ezeli. Adams is a consistent scorer, I like him, over Bismack. I likes Bismack when he was 3,800….. but now that hes 6,200 he would have to play great against T Thompson, Lebron, and Love in order to achieve his pricepoint. Just my opinion
I’m taking the risk on Frye, if you saw how he played last series. For only 3,200 he doesn’t have to have a stellar game to achieve his value at this pricepoint. I like Frye as a punt play. get ballsy
Bogut is starting so I’m still going with mo buckets and I’m taking the risk with Frye
Hell yeah let’s go Barnes, Frye, and Joseph! Sleeeeeepers!! GL everyone
Going with westbrook, Joseph, smith, Thompson, james, durant, patpat, Frye and adams on fd. Hoping cavs take out raps early and Frye gets some run.
Austin what would you fd lineup be if you were to take that risk tonight ?
I think it’s a big mistake not to put love and James in with how they’ve been playing even when they destroyed the other team they’ll at least average 35 fantasy points