Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/15/16

 

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have a full 15 game slate in our hands today with a few aces and a bunch of pitchers in tough spots. Make sure to check out our 3 other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather/lineup news that may arise.

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PITCHER

Note - Danny Duffy is on a 50 pitch limit. Make sure you steer clear.

Jose Fernandez FD 11100 DK 11700
Opponent - WSH (Ross) Park - @WSH
FD - 39.74 DK - 22.62

Fernandez finally displayed his upside last start with a 66 FanDuel point performance. This gives me a ton of comfort as he struggled earlier in the year with his fastball control and secondary pitch movement. He is facing off with the Washington Nationals in this one, a team that has struggled against righties to start the year as evidenced by their major league lower third combined wOBA of .309. Aside from Bryce Harper, the entire team struggles to drive the ball and score runs, however, Harper is definitely a concern. I expect Fernandez to pitch around Harper and either walk him or make him swing at something out of the strike zone. Fernandez is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game when his stuff is working as shown by his 11 double digit strikeout performances throughout his career. This ballpark is a positive one for right handed pitchers as it ranked 22nd last year for lefty power. I will be targeting Fernandez in both tournaments and cash games as I see his strikeout ability as safety.

Felix Hernandez FD 10300 DK 11300
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @SEA
FD - 36.45 DK - 19.41

This slate is definitely one where you will need to pay up for pitcher. Hernandez is another guy I will be target against an Angels team that has been pitiful against righties. The Angels have hit for a team .298 wOBA and 28.7% hard contact rate against righties. King Hernandez on the other hand, has really struggled to start this season. However, he has shown the upside 10 strikeout 7 inning performance. Hernandez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last 5 years as evidenced by his insanely low .267 wOBA and 26.4% hard contact rate. I will be targeting Hernandez in strictly tournaments as he has been very inconsistent to start the year. I would look at a guy like Sonny Gray or Joe Ross if you are looking for a safe play. However, those guys have a very limited upside.

Consider - Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.29

McCann has been hitting the ball well to start this season, especially against righties with a .377 wOBA and 3 home runs. McCann has always destroyed righties as evidenced by his .353 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate. McCann will be facing off with Miguel Gonzalez today, a guy who belongs in the minor leagues. Over the past 3 seasons, Gonzalez has exhibited a .372 wOBA and 4.86 xFIP to lefties. Yankee Stadium will only help as it is one of the best overall parks in the league for left handed power. McCann is a great play in all formats as the Yankees should have a great offensive day.

Yasmani Grandal FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.54 DK - 7.98

Yasmani Grandal has finally started hitting for power after struggling for the first month. Grandal has always been one of the better hitting catchers in the league and it looks like he is going to be that guy once again this season for the Dodgers. He has sported a .342 wOBA and 14% flyball rate dating back to 2012. While Mike Leake has the reputation of an above average pitcher, he struggles against lefties due to his weak changeup. In 2015, Leake gave up a .351 wOBA and 14 home runs to lefties in 105 innings. Grandal should go under owned here and has as much upside as anyone else at this catcher position.

Consider - Russell Martin, Jonathan Lucroy

 

FIRST BASE

Lucas Duda FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.36

Duda has been going through a huge slump over the last 2 weeks and while it is a little concerning, he saw the ball extremely well last night with a multi-hit game. Duda is a guy who has hit righties exceptionally well throughout his career. In 2015, Duda sported a .345 wOBA and 39.6% hard contact rate against righties. Tyler Chatwood on the other hand, has struggled mightily against lefties as shown by his career .345 wOBA and 4.77 xFIP. This game is sitting at an over/under of 11 and you need to make sure you have exposure to it one way or another. Duda is a terrific way to do that and is in play in all formats.

Chris Davis FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.03 DK - 10.48

Chris Davis is someone I will have on at least 1 tournament team every single time he is in the lineup. He brings consistent upside against anyone as he can hit 2 home runs and nobody will blink an eye. Over the past 3 seasons, Davis has hit righties to an unbelievable .462 wOBA and 45.8% hard contact rate. This match up will certainly force me to put Davis on more than a few teams tonight as he will face off with a weak right hander in Michael Fulmer. In Fulmer's short major league career, he has exhibited a .369 wOBA. While this sample size is very small, his minor league numbers don't suggest we should expect any type of dominance. Davis is a strong play in all formats, however, I am more apt to use him in tournaments as he is very power reliant.

Consider - Miguel Cabrera, Wil Myers, Prince Fielder

 

SECOND BASE

Scooter Gennett FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - SD (Vargas) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.71 DK - 9.47

Scooter Gennett is one of my favorite players to roster as he is a legitimate good hitter against righties and always goes under owned. He has hit righties to a .346 wOBA clip and a 116 wRC+. He will be facing off with one of the worst pitchers on today's slate, Cesar Vargas. Vargas has given up a combined .372 wOBA this season and has been pitching a lot better than his peripherals suggest. This entire Brewers team is in play and Scooter will likely be right in the middle of the action.

Jason Kipnis FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.61

Jason Kipnis is a guy I rarely roster due to his team's inconsistent lineup.However, this match up sets up perfectly for Kipnis as he will be facing off with a right hander that gives up home runs and stolen bases. Tyler Duffey has sported a .385 wOBA and a rediculous 41.2$ hard contact rate to lefties so far in 2016. Kipnis on the other hand has exhibited a .387 wOBA against righties, which is consistent with the rest of his career numbers. Kipnis will likely be hitting 2nd between Santana and Lindor which sets him up extremely well to drive in runs and then be driven in and that's if he doesn't clear the bases himself.

Consider - Neil Walker, Derek Dietrich

 

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - BOS (O'Sullivan) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.58 DK - 9.44

I am not too sure how it took this long to target Sean O'Sullivan. He is easily the worst pitcher on the slate and it is not really that close. In 2015, O'Sullivan gave up a combined wOBA of .392 and an xFIP of 6.10. While he will not be in the majors much longer, we need to take advantage of him while he still is. Correa has smashed righties since his major league debut with a .362 wOBA and a 33.8% hard contact rate. I would not be surprised if this Astros team hits 5 home runs today and 1 or 2 might just come from Correa. Correa is my top overall option at shortstop and is one of the better overall plays on the slate.

Brandon Crawford FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.81

Brandon has hit righties very well over the last few years with a .341 wOBA and 128 wRC+. He will be facing off with Rubby De La Rosa, a right hander who is one of the worst pitchers in the league against lefties. in 2015, De La Rosa gave up a .404 wOBA in 85 innings. It is very rare to see numbers that bad and for the team to not send the pitcher down, however, his numbers against righties were enough for the Diamondbacks to stick with him. The one problem I have with Crawford is his spot in the batting order which is why he is a tournament play only for me. However, if he happens to hit in the top 6, he is a great play in all formats. As a side note, Crawford has great BvP vs De La Rosa if that is something you are into.

Consider - Troy Tulowitzki, Asdrubal Cabrera

 

THIRD BASE

Jacob Lamb FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.32

Lamb has been on fire at the plate recently with 8 hits in his last 5 games and has hit some warning tracking flyouts as well. He will be taking on Matt Cain today, the same pitcher who gave up 6 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. Cain is completely washed up as evidenced by his .402 wOBA against lefties. Cain destroyed his arm throughout his prime and is now paying for it at the young age of 31. Lamb on the other hand, has hit righties very well since entering the league with a .330 wOBA and 37.7% hard contact rate. Lamb is in a great spot to produce today and is someone I will have exposure to in both cash games and tournaments.

Eugenio Suarez FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.68

Eugenio Suarez has flown under the radar to start this season, however, he has 6 home runs on the year and a .422 wOBA against lefties. While that is certainly not sustainable, I expect Suarez to have a great year and emerge as one of the best hitters on this Reds team. Adam Morgan on the other hand, has struggled against righties with a .336 wOBA and 36.7% hard contact rate throughout his career. While this ballpark is not ideal, Suarez is not reliant on power and derives most of his fantasy points from driving in runs. I do prefer Suarez in tournaments as he is a bit reliant on the team having a good day at the plate.

Consider - Maikel Franco, David Wright

 

OUTFIELD

Michael Conforto FD 4000 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 13.87 DK - 10.72
Curtis Granderson FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 13.76 DK - 10.73

This outfield duo is going to be very popular today and rightfully so. As mentioned, Tyler Chatwood has struggled against lefties throughout his career as exhibited by his .345 wOBA and 15.9% HR/FB rate. Both Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson have been extremely good against righties over the last 2 seasons. Let's take a look at each of their respective numbers. Granderson exhibited a .384 wOBA and 37.3% hard contact rate compared to Conforto's rediculous .391 wOBA and 45.1% hard contact rate. This game is sitting at an over/under off 11 and you certainly need to find exposure. I am comfortable with both of these guys in both tournaments and cash games as they have a safe floor and high ceiling.

Mitch Moreland FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.38
Nomar Mazara FD 3200 DK 3300
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.21 DK - 9.55

Here is another outfield duo that is going to be much lower owned and has nearly as much upside. While Aaron Sanchez is a pretty good pitcher, he has struggled against lefties as evidenced by his career .332 wOBA and 34.6% hard contact rate. Mitch Moreland and Nomar Mazara have both hit righties extremely with a combined wOBA over .334 and a hard contact rate over 32%. Globe Life Park sets up very well for left handed hitters as it was ranked top 4 in terms of home runs and extra base hits. Mazara and Moreland are a terrific tournament duo that offers a ton of upside at a very low price point.

Yasiel Puig FD 2400 DK 3900
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.35

Yasiel Puig is just way too cheap around the industry, especially on FanDuel at $2400. It is going to be very difficult to not play Puig in this spot against a pitcher who has struggled against both righties and lefties to start the year. Leake has exhibited a .319 wOBA and 4.36 xFIP to righties this far, however, his peripherals suggest he may struggle even further with a 36% hard contact rate and a 35.5% flyball rate. Puig on the other hand, has hit righties well over the course of his career with a .365 wOBA and 36.5% hard contact rate. Puig is a great option in both tournaments and cash games as he can score in so many different ways.

Consider - Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Colby Rasmus

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