Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/15/16 Playoffs

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

Analysis
The series that just wouldn't die. Like the zombies in a horror movie, just when you think you have put them down and are free and clear, they wake back up and keep on coming. From a viewing standpoint, this series has only been enjoyable if you are a fan of Miami or Toronto (and even then I'm not so sure). Things changed just a tad in game six when Miami went super small to start the game, running Deng and Winslow together in the 4/5. That sped up their pace with Richardson coming off the bench to play major minutes. The Heat went total small ball and likely will again for the deciding game. It proved effective against the slower Raptors.

Top Plays
Goran Dragic - FD 6400 DK 6400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.98 DK Proj. Pts - 34.54
We got God Mode Dragic in game 6, and if the Heat are going to try and small-ball the Raptors to death, he's going to need to do a lot once again in game 7. It worked so well that I can't imagine why they'd get away from it, and while I don't think you can count on him for 20+ shots and 7x points per dollar on these prices, he'll be super involved once again.

Dwyane Wade - FD 8300 DK 8400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
If you think Wade is playing any fewer than the very most upper end of his minutes tonight, you're nuts. Wade played as hard as I've seen him go all season in game 6, and his complete 22/6/5/3/2 line was good for 5x points per dollar on these prices. The Raptors don't have anyone that really wants to cover him (especially if DeRozan has to handle so much offensive load), and I'm getting the popcorn and preparing for another big game. On a day that's pretty thin for shooting guards, Wade makes for a terrific option.

Bismack Biyombo - FD 5700 DK 6000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 29.83 DK Proj. Pts - 30.46
The Raptors were caught with their pants down in game 6, and Biyombo looked fairly lost against the extreme small ball squads the Heat threw out there. So why do I like him today? Well, with a day to prepare and practice for what Miami was doing, the Raptors have to be able to come up with a plan to counter it. Biyombo should be able to hurt them rolling to the basket and crashing the boards, and I think we see a big game from him here. He could also disappear completely if the Raps just try to out-small the Heat, so play him at your own risk.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8200
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.73 DK Proj. Pts - 41.95
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7700 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 38.16 DK Proj. Pts - 39.14
Both are in play today, but I'm not thrilled about either. Lowry's had back to back good games and has the better match-up, but he's getting expensive. DeRozan has been on again, off again all playoffs long, but definitely has the capacity for a big game. I'd definitely rather have Wade if you're choosing at this price point, but both might wind up in optimal lineups today simply on account of the limited options.

Consider: Cory Joseph and Patrick Patterson as cheap guys who few people will play in big tournaments only.
 

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
I'm as surprised as you, believe me. It seemed rather inconceivable the Thunder could pull out a series win against the Spurs. That they did it in six games, taking two of them in San Antonio where the Spurs had lost one game all season (to the Warriors), put it even that much more in the "whaaaaaa?" category. But the Thunder came out with a ton of energy and a big lineup, giving the Spurs fits.

I don't know if we will continue to see the same thing against the Warriors. It's one thing to play Steven Adams 40 minutes against a Spurs squad with Aldridge and Duncan. It's another against Golden State who can and will small ball you to death. Short story short, I can't wait to see how this plays out. My gut tells me Golden State finishes this in six games or less. But I thought much the same about the Spurs.

Top Plays
Oklahoma City
Kevin Durant - FD 10100 DK 9900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.19
My favorite big money play today, and it isn't even close. Yes, Westbrook will try and get his against Curry, but did you see what Durant did to the Dubs this year? He put up a 32/10/9, a 37/12/5, and a 40/14/5. You read those right. Unlike the Spurs, the Warriors who have no one that can come close to hanging with him. Bogut might play extra minutes and they can try and send this assignment Draymond's way, but that leaves the Warriors very small against Ibaka. The fact of the matter is KD is probably going to be guarded by someone with no chance, and given the eye of the tiger KD we saw at the end of the Spurs series, I'm bracing myself for a few monsters.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.29 DK Proj. Pts - 27.79
Still not priced to his minutes, especially on FanDuel. On the surface this really isn't a great match-up for Adams. It might be hard for him to stay on the floor if Golden State decides to go uber small, but the Thunder showed they weren't afraid of letting Adams loose on Aldridge in the Spurs series, and he's athletic enough to track Draymond if it comes to that. If he's out there he'll have a great rebounding advantage, and would be deadly in the pick and roll against a small line-up. It'll be interesting to see if Bogut plays big minutes here (which would depress Adams' value), but he's still just not priced for his minutes. I'm playing him.

Russell Westbrook - FD 11100 DK 11300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Westbrook was his usual frantic (and awesome) self against the Spurs, and it stands to reason that that should continue in a faster paced series with the Warriors. I'm hoping we get the 20/14/13 Westbrook instead of the 37 (on 30 shots)/6/4 Westbrook, and given how the last series played out, I'm actually fairly confident that we will. I like him considerably better than Curry at similar prices, given the injury issues there.

Which Ibaka are we getting? It's the big question. Ibaka was relevant again in game 6 of the Spurs series, but had been in a prolonged disappearing act before then. I'm nervous playing him, but I might need to given how bad PF looks today.

Golden State
The projection system is lower than I expected on the Golden State guys today, but it makes sense. Steph Curry is priced high because he's awesome, sure, but the rest of the team had their prices inflate in his absence, and a few shoot-outs (including the overtime) have left their prices at inflated levels. It's a really weird set of prices for a team that should score a pile of points.

So, to be honest? I kind of want to semi-fade the Warriors here. Draymond should have a big game, but he's expensive compared to where he was during the season. Do you want him over KD (albeit different positions) for the same money? You can probably make a better argument for Steph over Russell here if you just think he's going to show up and try to shut up all the "I think OKC has a shot to win this!" buzz. But I probably won't. Just saying.

I don't mind the small forward value here - both Barnes and Iggy should be fairly solid - and I think we could see a huge Bogut game if he plays high 20s minutes, which is totally in play. But all in all, I'm just not thrilled at the value here. Still, someone is going to score a lot of points, and I don't blame you if you try and figure out who.

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