Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 198 – 5/14/16

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We head to the MMA-crazy Brazil as Fabricio Werdum defends the Heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic. Even though the fight I was most looking forward to, Anderson Silva vs. Uriah Hall, was cancelled, this card is filled with Brazilian legends of MMA and it should make for one hell of an atmosphere in Curitiba. Make sure to check out the cheat sheet this week, which has been updated to factor in the Vegas Line on each fight. Let’s get to the card and analyze the matchups in all their DFS glory.

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino ($11,600)

Vegas Line: -1400
Career Record: 15-1, 1 NC
UFC Record: 0-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: 13 KO / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round KO – Daria Ibragimova

I think everyone can agree that Cyborg is likely to roll through Leslie Smith, but a price tag of $11,600 can make her tough to fit in your lineup. For that reason, I’ll probably be sticking to GPP games with Cyborg, you need to find a few upset/contrarian plays to cash big anyway. In terms of fight analysis, Cyborg will out class Smith but the latter is plenty tough and has shown the ability to take punishment. That being my only hesitation, Cyborg should be the super safe play that is highly owned, putting more pressure on you to find the right upsets and correctly pick the close fights.

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Francisco Trinaldo ($10,000)

Vegas Line: -225
Career Record: 19-4
UFC Record: 9-3
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: 6 KO / 5 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 2 Subs
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Ross Pearson

Trinaldo is not a super sexy pick down on the undercard but the 37-year old Brazilian comes into this fight, in his home country, on a five fight winning streak. His last three victories all came against higher level opponents with name recognition, including four months ago against Ross Pearson. The stoppage number sways this one for me as Trinaldo’s opponent, Yancy Medeiros, has been up and down the last three years. All of Medeiros’ last three UFC losses came via first-round stoppage and he has struggled every time he takes a step up in competition. Trinaldo is favored and has upside to land you 100 points with a first-round finish.

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Stipe Miocic ($9,100)

Vegas Line: +135
Career Record: 14-2
UFC Record: 8-2
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 10 KO / 1 Subs / 6 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round TKO – Andrei Arlovski

Full disclosure: I’m not super comfortable with this one. But it’s a heavyweight fight and the main event, so with the way I approach DFS that means I need to make a pick here. This fight is razor close and the $9,100 salary gives Miocic the edge (half way to making up for Cyborg’s $11,600 shopping spree). The downsides for Miocic are he will be fighting against what will be a raucous Brazilian crowd and this is his first-ever chance at UFC gold. But he has vicious power, which he displayed with a brutal, and very early, TKO of Andrei Arlovski. Miocic has proven himself to be a durable heavyweight, so in a fight that I believe is a coin flip, give me the underdog.

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