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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/12/2016
Nick Rodriguez

 

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/12/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.

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Pitching Targets

Note- Clayton Kershaw and David Price were talked about on our daily picks article.

Vincent VelasquezVincent Velasquez FD 9100 DK 10900
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @ATL
FD - 40.59 DK - 22.67

Don't want to pay up for Clayton Kershaw? Then Vincent Velasquez is your guy! He will be going up against the Braves, who have had trouble getting anything going on offense. Fun fact about the Braves offense: The Braves have hit a total of nine home runs this season; 11 MLB players have hit 10 or more homers this season. This shows you the struggles they have to hit for power, so this will help Velasquez and his 44.8 FB% out big-time! I know I've talked about the Braves' inabilities to hit for power, but they also own a .274 wOBA (30th in MLB) and 65 wRC+ (30th in MLB). This is the perfect matchup for the 23-year-old.

Velasquez is a guy worth grabbing in all formats tonight. I mentioned the beautiful matchup he has, but he also presents your team with a ton of upside. He owns a 27.0 K% and 18.7 K-BB%. We have seen him have monster nights already this season, so go ahead and pick him up!

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Zack GreinkeZack Greinke FD 10900 DK 8400
Opponent - SF (Cueto) Park - @ARI
FD - 29.15 DK - 15.03

Zack Greinke will be going up against the Giants, which is not the prettiest of matchups, but I believe he is an excellent option on DraftKings, with that $8,400 price tag (I prefer paying for Kershaw on FanDuel). Sure, he has had two rough outings with his new team, but he has shown some signs of 2015 Greinke, with 16 K and 4 ER in his last two outings. He owns a 23.2 K% and 18.7 K-BB%, since 2015, which indicates that he has upside. He also owns a 47.7 GB%, which shows us his ability to keep the ball in the park, and ultimately helps him limit damage. The matchup isn't a pretty one, but you are getting a nice discount for one of the most dominant pitchers in the league (on DraftKings), so go ahead and plug him in some lineups!

Aaron BlairAaron Blair FD 5200 DK 7500
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @ATL
FD - 32.95 DK - 17.29

Aaron Blair is not the sexiest name on the slate, but our projection system loves him tonight, so it's only right for me to talk about the Braves' starter! He will be going up against the Philadelphia Phillies, which provides him with a nice matchup. Although the Phillies don't strikeout a ton against right-handed pitching (21.3 K%), they do struggle in other offensive categories that will help Blair out tonight. They own a hard-hit rate of 25.6% (29th in MLB), .285 wOBA (27th in MLB) and 71 wRC+ (29th in MLB). Blair has not shown us his ability to fan many hitters (7.7 K% in three major league starts), but he has an appealing matchup and could turn in a quality start. I won't argue with the projection system on this one! He is a SP2 for me tonight, especially with Kershaw, Price, Greinke and Velazquez taking the hill. And this game has a 7-run total, which is second lowest run-total on the slate.

 

 

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