Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/12/16

It's a light day with just eight games, but the good news is they're all coming tonight, so the menu won't be diluted by a split slate. That's a good thing, because we've got quite a few quality arms going, making hitting tough to come by. Unless you're the Baltimore Orioles. Read on, and you'll see what we mean.

 

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PITCHER

Clayton Kershaw FD 12500 DK 13300
Opponent - NYM (Colon) Park - @LAD
FD - 47.14 DK - 27.27

For an eight-game slate, this one's kinda loaded with solid arms. We start with the best and most obvious. You don't need us to sing the praises of Kershaw; he's been the best pitcher in the game for years now, and Jake Arrieta's ludicrous start to 2016 notwithstanding, very little has changed. Kershaw is still posting super-elite K-rates for a starter, walking hardly anybody, and rarely giving up the long ball, resulting in an xFIP right at 2.00. The Mets have a respectable offense, but don't let that chase you off. They're a little less potent vs. lefties and they strike out quite a bit in the split. There's simply not a better option than Kershaw in cash games, and despite the price, his upside makes him  worth it in tournaments, as well.

Vincent Velasquez FD 9100 DK 10900
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @ATL
FD - 40.59 DK - 22.67

Speaking of strikeout upside, that's what you're paying for with Velasquez. He flashed that prowess with a 16-K performance against the Padres in April, and though he's been less impressive since, the raw stuff is apparent for the 23-year-old. He'll have the chance to flex it against the Braves, who sport the worst offense in MLB by pretty much every metric that matters. As always, the win potential is diminished by the Phillies' own offensive ineptitude, but we're willing to risk it based on Velasquez's 10.6/9 K rate and solid peripherals (3.25 xFIP).

David Price FD 9400 DK 11100
Opponent - HOU (Keuchel) Park - @BOS
FD - 39.39 DK - 21.64

Yeah, we know. Price has put up some pretty brutal outings recently, surrendering at least six runs in three of his last four outings. Our advice: don't panic, put hope everybody else does. That 6.75 ERA isn't real. Well, I mean, it kinda is. That's what he's given up. But the underlying numbers suggest it's more the product of bad luck that bad stuff. Price's K rate is actually up. Way up. He's whiffing more than 11.5 guys per 9, and while the walk rate is also up a tick, he's getting burned by insane BABIP and strand rates that should be regressing soon. That's why his xFIP is still sitting at a cool 2.95. Not every pitcher's peripherals will match their results, but over the long term most do, and that's definitely the case for Price, whose 3.19 career ERA is right in line with his 3.34 xFIP. Facing a boom-or-bust Astros lineup, he's the epitome of a tournament play tonight, but we think Houston's above-average K-rate vs. lefties makes him a fine choice in those formats.

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.83 DK - 8.9

Ian Kennedy is off to a nice start this year, but he won't have the spacious confines of his home park to help contain all those fly balls he gives up tonight. You may have noticed the projection system loves targeting lefties in Yankee Stadium against fly-ball pitchers, and the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium is a big part of what's driving this recommendation. It also doesn't hurt that McCann is hitting well in 2016. The underlying numbers suggest that the batting average will be dipping as the season wears on, but what we're most interested in here is McCann's power and his prime spot in the batting order.

Matt Wieters FD 2300 DK 3500
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.94

If you'd rather punt the position, we're suggesting Wieters. The one-time super-prospect is showing some wear, but the fact that Mike Pelfrey doesn't miss bats helps elevate his floor, and Camden Yard is up there with Yankee Stadium when it comes to home run factors for lefties. To be honest, there's not much else in the numbers to get excited about, but sometimes rock-bottom prices (and Mike Pelfrey) are enough.

 

FIRST BASE

Chris Davis FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 16.96 DK - 12.67

Pedro Alvarez FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.52 DK - 11.02

So, about Mike Pelfrey. He's going to be a recurring theme of this column, so now might be a good time to examine the projection system's enduring distaste for the 32-year-old meatballer. The short version is that he's not a good pitcher and he never really was. Even the couple of decent seasons he put up with the Mets shortly after breaking in weren't supported by the peripheral stats. And in the six years since his last sub-4.00 ERA, he's only gotten worse. He did a decent job of keeping the ball in the yard last season, but still got slapped around for a 4.45 xFIP. This year he's given up six bombs with 15 Ks and 15 walks in 30.1 innings, and lefties have posted a .459 wOBA against him. So now comes the hard part: do you choose the high-priced slugger in the middle of the order, or the cheap one in the bottom third. Alvarez is obviously the more contrarian play. The power he's known for hasn't yet shown up this season, but he is displaying a much-improved approach, resulting in substantial improvements in his walks and strikeouts. Given the aforementioned boost provided by the home park, tonight makes a good time to take a flyer on a breakout. Davis is obviously the "safer" play. He's one of the game's top power hitters, and while we usually don't associate 30-percent K rates with safety, the downside is significantly mitigated by Pelfrey's inability to strike guys out.

 

SECOND BASE

Jonathan Schoop FD 2200 DK 4000
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.45 DK - 8.91

We're gonna keep going back to the well, folks. But aside from everything we've already talked about, it's a really tough slate at second base. Plus, if you're planning to pay up for pitching, you're going to need some savings, and we think Schoop is a nice place to find a bargain on FanDuel. He's coming super cheap there, and has nice power upside (.530 slugging vs. RHP since the beginning of 2015). He typically hits near the bottom of the order, which depresses his value, but also makes him a low-owned tournament option (maybe less so tonight). He's tougher to recommend for cash games, but he's in play there, too, at least on FanDuel.
Dustin Pedroia FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - HOU (Keuchel) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.92

We're not excited about the value projection, but given the slim pickings at the keystone tonight, you could do a lot worse than Pedey. We're also not considering the Red Sox recent offensive exploits, but you might. This pick is more about a high-floor hitter with well-established command of the strike zone squaring off with a scuffling starter. Dallas Keuchel has always been a bit of a nibbler, but he's not finding the edges right now, resulting in a walk rate that's nearly double what he put up last year. And while his his 3.66 xFIP suggests his 4.70 ERA should be coming down, he's also getting hit pretty hard this year, as evidenced by his 29.9 percent hard contact rate, which is up from 21 percent in last year's Cy Young campaign.

Consider: Ian Kinsler (moreso on FanDuel)

 

SHORTSTOP

Xander Bogaerts FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - HOU (Keuchel) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.18

You can take pretty much everything we said about Pedroia and apply it here, because it all fits for Boegarts as well. He's showing increased patience after last year's breakout season and proving he might be able to maintain the lofty batting average as well. Last year's .320 avg. was looked at somewhat skeptically given the corresponding .372 BABIP, but through 151 plate appearances in 2016, he's backed up those numbers with .328 and .387 marks, so extremely high BABIP might just be part of the 23-year-old's skill set. He's also demonstrating increased power and though it hasn't shown up in the form of home runs yet, he's on pace for about 60 doubles (!), so don't be surprised if some of those gappers start clearing the walls soon.

Didi Gregorius FD 2000 DK 2700
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.35 DK - 7.32

And now, your punt pick. Gregorius is coming in at bargain basement prices, and that's a big part of the allure tonight. But the projection system also likes his potential to produce in this matchup. Don't get us wrong, he's not going to make anybody forget about Derek Jeter anytime soon, but his BABIP is currently trending more than .40 points off his career pace, so he's probably not as bad as his .220 avg. might have you believe. Or maybe he is. At least he's only costing you about $2K. Plug him in, hope he yanks one over the right-field wall, and trust the salary you saved will be invested in guys who can make up the difference if he doesn't.

THIRD BASE

Manny Machado FD 4300 DK 5400
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 15.31 DK - 12.2

I don't know, maybe it's just me, but it feels like Manny Machado's excellence is going sorely underrated. I mean, everybody knows he's really good, but the numbers he's putting up over the last 200 or so games are more than really good. I feel like I do this every time I write him up, but let's just take minute to appreciate what this 23-year-old is doing. In 2016, he's leading the league in wOBA (.477) and slugging (.722). And here's his triple slash against righties since the beginning of 2015: .308/.375/.569. He's about as good a hitter as we have in the game right now, and he makes a strong play in all formats, even when he's not facing Mike Pelfrey.

Maikel Franco FD 3500 DK 3400
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.95

Franco isn't quite tearing up the league like he did in 80 games after getting called up last season, but we're still bullish on the young Phillies 3B. His blend of contact and power skills are pretty rare, and while we'd like a few more walks, a substandard BABIP suggests the batting average should be trending upward (provided he can cut down on the pop ups). He's in a solid spot tonight against Aaron Blair, a highly touted prospect who hasn't quite mastered his craft at the major league level. He's walked nearly twice as many guys as he's whiffed through his first three starts and he's not getting ground balls, so we wouldn't be surprised to see Franco put a charge into one tonight.

 

OUTFIELD

Adam Jones FD 2600 DK 4400
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 14 DK - 10.91

Mark Trumbo FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.34 DK - 9.44
Another instance of picking on poor Mike Pelfrey. This one's similar to the dilemma at first base, except you'll have the option to play both guys here. Don't let us stop you. In fact, the projection system would have you do just that. It's got Jones and Trumbo as two of its top three producers in the outfield tonight, and the cheaper guy is actually No. 1 on the board for raw points. Jones has struggled in the early going this year, but he's shown clear signs that he's shaking off some nagging injuries with hits in five straight games and homers in his last two. Couple that with his career track record of reverse splits, and we've got a guy coming at a steal, especially on FanDuel, which moves prices pretty slowly. Odds aren't he won't be available in the Jon Jay range for long, so seize the chance while you've got it. Trumbo is the flip side of the same coin. He's been mashing this season, and while we're not sold on the elevated batting average, the power is well-established. And while he's traditionally preferred southpaws, he's more than capable of taking advantage of a soft matchup like this one. In 89 at bats against righties this year, he's posted a .416 wOBA and .551 slugging and few of those came against guys as bad as Pelfrey.

J.D. Martinez FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.73

Justin Upton FD 2700 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.58

Staying in the same game, Ubaldo Jimenez isn't quite as tempting for Detroit's hitters due to his solid K potential, but as always with Ubaldo, there's no guarantee the Tigers hitters will have to swing. His always sketchy command has been typically bad this year (more than 4 walks per 9), and it's a pretty decent bet somebody's going to get into one he leaves over the fat part of the plate every time he toes the rubber. And despite subpar results in 2016, Martinez and Upton are always a solid place to turn to for home run upside. That said, until he shows signs of regaining prior form, Upton's more of a pure tournament play. He's always been streakier than most guys, but he's mired in a long stretch of badness right now, striking out in nearly 40 percent (yep) of his plate appearances. Digging into the numbers, very little has changed in his batted ball profile. He's still hitting the ball hard, he's just not hitting it often. But he's coming at a discount because of it, so he's worth a flyer. Meanwhile, Martinez looks more like the victim of plain bad luck. He's striking out quite a bit less than his career average, but his BABIP is .66 points off his usual number, so that explains a good deal of his .230 batting average. He probably won't match last year's 38 HR mark, but the power is still there (projections calling for something closer to 30), and he's now homered in two of his last three games.

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