Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/12/16 Playoffs

Thursday and Friday bring us two more elimination games. OKC is hosting the Spurs, trying to knock them out on their home court. I’m pretty sure they’d rather avoid a Game 7 in San Antonio. Toronto will be at the Heat. If they can close out the series on the road, that’ll go a long way towards reversing their rep as postseason chokers. It would also be the franchise’s first appearance in the Conference Finals. What’s the impact for DFS? Lots of motivation, lots of minutes for the top rotation guys, and plenty of production from the teams’ stars. You’ll see that reflected below.

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San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis

Wow. OKC stole one on the road. I have to admit… didn’t see that coming. The Thunder now have a chance to close out the series at home. Given the comeback they had to mount to win Game 5, it’s hard to say they can’t produce down the stretch. That said, one game a trend does not make. To lose that “hero ball” rep, they’ll need to get it done on Thursday. The result on Tuesday did involve Westbrook and Durant dominating the ball, but the difference seemed to be the activity by Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. We can only hope that they learned something from that, and the stars begin displaying more trust in their (extremely talented) supporting cast. The Spurs failed to close out the game despite the heroic efforts of Kawhi Leonard. His teammates missed shots and allowed offensive rebounds. The officiating didn’t hurt either. I’m expecting a close, hard-fought game on Thursday, where the usual suspects dominate the ball, come up with big performances, and execution down the stretch determines the outcome of the game. Not very original, but the script fits. It also drives the DFS epectations.

Top Plays

Russell Westbrook - FD 11100 DK 11100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59

Where else to start in this game? Those of you who’ve read my picks before know I have a man-crush on Russ. Late game hero-ball tendencies aside, he’s one of my favorite players in reality and DFS. You’ll have to pay through the nose to get him in your lineup, but the multiple justifies the investment. He’s not the very top Pts/$ play, but he’s pretty close, and certainly the only elite option.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 8700 DK 8700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 45.05 DK Proj. Pts - 45.95

LMA’s play has fallen off in this series after a blistering start. It has clearly affected his team. He missed several shots down the stretch of Game 5, contributing to the unexpected home loss. Look for a strong performance in a do-or-die game. He’s the best Pts/$ option among all higher-end players on FD and DK, as well as the #2 PF on FD. Play him there, and consider him strongly on DK if you’re looking to spend some money.

Serge Ibaka - FD 5200 DK 4700
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 28.97

If you’re looking for a top power forward play, Ibaka is your man. He has the highest Pts/$ projection on FD and DK at the position. On DK, it’s not even close due to the relative pricing disparity. He is pretty much a must-play on both sites, and on DK he’s a no-brainer.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 9500 DK 9100
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 44.59 DK Proj. Pts - 46.42

His projected multiple isn’t terribly strong, and he’s certainly not cheap. However, you have to spend your money somewhere. I’m comfortable that he’s going to be very active under the circumstances, which gives him a strong upside. Also, the position’s not terribly exciting on this slate. Leonard is a good option to spend value gained elsewhere.

Manu Ginobili - FD 3600 DK 3600
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 20.62 DK Proj. Pts - 21.99

Danny Green - FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 23.8 DK Proj. Pts - 27.33

I’m presenting these guys together because they’re the picks of the night on both FD and DK at shooting guard. They’re also both Spurs. That said, their profiles are a little different. We like Green’s floor (he he’s unlikely to fall below a 4x), producing at least minimum value in four of the five games in the series. Note that his price has risen substantially through the series, limiting his upside. Manu is definitely a low floor/high ceiling play. He just saw a 5% price drop, so he’s certainly become more attractive. You can find steadier picks at the position, but not with his upside.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 5900
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.68 DK Proj. Pts - 27.16

Adams is like the Energizer Bunny, he just keeps going and going and going … (sorry if I’m dating myself). I love his game in real-life, and he is the top DFS play at Center on FD. His high price on DK lowers his multiple and renders him more difficult to roster, unless you’re looking to pivot off the top recommendation (see below).

Kevin Durant - FD 10100 DK 9400
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 43.92 DK Proj. Pts - 46.54

It would be wrong not to present KD. He might go off at any time. The DFSR projections are not kind on FD, where you really should consider him only if you don’t trust one of the two top plays (again, see below). The drop off from them to Durant is that big. He is worthy of consideration on DK. You can find slightly better multiples with a couple of SF alternatives, but betting on his upside wouldn’t be the worst choice either.

I can’t give him a full write up, but if you’re looking for a cheap flier at Center on DK, Timaaaay is worth a look for just $3k. His salary puts him in the no-fly zone on FD. Goran Dragic is also worth a mention at PG if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, but comes with quite a low floor.

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat

Analysis

Five games, five nail-biters. The first two seemed a little boring to me, as the grinding pace and bad shooting grated the nerves. The play has picked up a bit, Kyle Lowry is playable again, the games have remained tight, and the series has really become quite compelling. Injury has muddied DFS expectations. Bismack Biyombo has become a broadly-owned commodity. Patrick Patterson may fall into the must-play category. Josh McRoberts may have fantasy relevance. Justise Winslow picked up heavy minutes, and might do so again. Luol Deng was in foul trouble and threw up a bagel from the floor – you can expect a bounce-back game in terms of minutes and performance, IF he’s fully healthy. Finally, you can expect D-Wade to be dominating the ball in crunch time. He probably should. The picks below reflect all of the above.

Top Plays

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7400 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.23 DK Proj. Pts - 38.19
If you don’t want one (or both) of the cheap Spurs, DeRozan is your guy. He played like the guy we saw in the regular season on Wednesday. If you think he keeps that up, you may find him difficult leave alone. If you think he reverts to his miserable postseason shooting performances, stay away. The DFSR system predicts the former.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8200 DK 8000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.5 DK Proj. Pts - 41.83
While I am still convinced there is something off about the guy, he isn't letting that effect how much he's shooting. Lowry put up 25 shots last game and went 25/10/6 for an outstanding line. I think we can pencil him in for about 40 minutes again in this one and the price is still in a fine range of value.

Bismack Biyombo - FD 5500 DK 5600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
It's actually a pretty close call in terms of the top value play at center between Bismack and Adams. I The former's playing major minutes with Jonas on the shelf and game five saw him with a 10/6 line while chucking in blocks and steals. I think that's the low end of fantasy production for this guy if you are putting his minutes in the high 30's.

Dwyane Wade - FD 8300 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
The Heat manage his minutes pretty strictly, but if there was a chance to see him get all the run he needs then this is the game. It's elimination time for the Heat and Wade's been their primary scorer in this series. Though he didn't dominate the shot volume last game, I think you see him get more looks up from the field here.

Strongly consider Demarre Carroll and Luol Deng if they come back to game six at full strength.

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