Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/10/16 Playoffs

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Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs

Analysis
Ok, the Thunder can't actually win this series, right? Or can they? I like many thought it more of a formality than a prediction that the Spurs would win this series, but that was before Oklahoma City seemed to find the recipe for hanging with San Antonio. Now I don't think you can bank on KD outscoring the entire Spurs team in the 4th, or Westbrook notching more assists than the entire Spurs team combined (something I'm sure Popovich was just giddy about), but the momentum in this series has definitely shifted in the Thunder's favor. I do expect San Antonio to play better tonight at home, but this game could really go either way.
Top Plays
Russell Westbrook - FD 11100 DK 11100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59
Kevin Durant - FD 10100 DK 9500
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 43.92 DK Proj. Pts - 46.54
Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.68 DK Proj. Pts - 27.16
For the Thunder we have the usual suspects, plus the surprise appearance of one Steven Adams, who has really been a nice surprise for fantasy owners willing to roster him in this series. Adams has seen 36+ minutes in each of his last 3 games, and it seems that he has pushed far ahead of Kanter and Ibaka in Billy Donovan's rotation. Not to mention the fact that Tim Duncan decided to retire early and not tell anyone, Adams is now frequently covered by either West or Diaw, both of whom he has a sizable height advantage over. I won't spend much time on Russ and KD because unless you're completely new to this whole NBA thing you know what these guys are capable of. Although he's more expense, I like Westbrook a bit more than Durant because of his ability to generate a lot of fantasy points without scoring the basketball.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 9400 DK 8900
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 43.47 DK Proj. Pts - 45.26
LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 8700 DK 8600
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 45.05 DK Proj. Pts - 45.95
Danny Green - FD 4100 DK 4100
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 23.8 DK Proj. Pts - 27.33
Tony Parker - FD 5100 DK 5200
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.06 DK Proj. Pts - 27.8

I know the Spurs are reeling a little bit right now, but if any team in the NBA can correct their problems in a matter of days it's San Antonio. Parker seems to be rounding into a form we hadn't previously seen from him in this postseason, averaging over 20 ppg in his last two contests while seeing over 30 minutes in both of those games. Aldridge and Leonard have emerged as the Spurs clear-cut, go-to options in this series, and both produce better at home than on the road. And that just leaves Danny Green. He was held scoreless in his last game @ OKC, but still saw the most minutes at SG for the Spurs. I think the chances that he only gets 3 shots again (and misses them all) are pretty slim, so I like buying low on Green tonight.
 

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

Analysis
With the injuries to both of these teams starting centers, small-ball has become the style of play that is going to be seen throughout the rest of this series. Game 4 had some very interesting storyline's that should be mentioned here: Although he didn't outproduce him, Cory Joseph saw more minutes than Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan continued his wildly inconsistent postseason with a crushing sub 10 FP performance, Bismack Biyombo had a solid double-double in 31 minutes of action, the Heat's 4 returning starters each saw about 40+ minutes in this one, and Justice Winslow saw 31 minutes (and produced fairly well) off the bench. A lot of this game is going to hinge on the health of Whiteside, because if he can go it changes the dynamic of the game entirely. Given that the Heat are now tied in this series, and the fact that Whiteside has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL, I think it's likely that he's out at least 1 more game (but I'm not a doctor nor do I play one on TV so how much do I really know?).
Top Plays
Dwyane Wade - FD 8100 DK 8300
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
Joe Johnson - FD 5100 DK 5100
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
Goran Dragic - FD 6500 DK 6400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.59 DK Proj. Pts - 31

Our system likes the following guys from the Heat, and with each of these guys seeing a bump in minutes and usage with Whiteside off the floor, I have to agree with the system. Wade is playing (almost) like he was back in '05-'06 when he won a championship, playing super aggressive, attacking basketball on the offensive end (as evidenced by the 24 shots he took last game). Dragic saw the second most shots and the most minutes on the team in Game 4, and with the Raptor's playing with a smaller lineup without Valanciunas, his ability to slash and score really gives him a nice bump in value moving forward. And steady Joe as all the kids call him (idk if that's true or not anymore) has been a fantasy star in this series, hitting x6 value in 3 of his 4 games agains the Raptors. The loss of Whiteside only magnifies his value, and as far as inexpensive SF's go, he's about the only one I really trust.

Bismack Biyombo - FD 4700 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
Patrick Patterson - FD 3800 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 19.09 DK Proj. Pts - 21.45
Kyle Lowry - FD 7900 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.5 DK Proj. Pts - 41.83
Two value plays and a PG who shot 2-11 from the floor, but still managed a near triple-double. Yuck. I never thought I'd actually say this, but of the three Raptors here I trust Biyombo the most simply because of his defensive presence and ability to hit the offensive glass. Lowry has had 3 nice games in a row (from a fantasy prospective), and with the loss of Whiteside in the middle he should have more opportunities to attack the basket, which is something he didn't do much of in Game 4 surprisingly. And Patterson is more of a flyer to me, but the guy did see 41 minutes of action last game so just being on the court for 80% of the game gets you a mention, especially since he's priced near the minimum.
 

Portland Trailblazers at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
Heeeeeee's baaaaaaack. For those of you who didn't catch the end of the game last night, you missed a truly vintage Steph Curry moment in which he proved why he's the best in the league. Ice-cold for most of the game and playing on a knee that didn't even seem to be 100%, this guy comes out and drops 17 points in a 5 minute OT period. The return of Curry means business as usual for the Warriors in this one, and it could mean a dip in production for some of the other Warrior players (although it didn't in Game 4). Now for the Trailblazers, I'd imagine they're going to be pretty demoralized heading into this one, especially since they played so well in Game 4 and still lost. Look for another steady stream of Lillard and McCollum in this one, as these two combined to take exactly half of Portland's shots last night. I know this has been a pretty competitive series thus far, but with a close-out game at Oracle and the return of Curry, I think there's a good chance this one goes to the Warriors by 10+ points (just something to keep in mind).
Top Plays
Draymond Green - FD 10000 DK 11800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 50.28 DK Proj. Pts - 52.86
Stephen Curry - FD 10600 DK 9700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 0 DK Proj. Pts - 0
No real surprise here for the Warrior's, Curry and Green are my favorite plays out of this one. Green has been an absolute beast during the postseason for Golden State, and even with the return of Curry he managed an amazing 60 FP performance (albeit due to 7 blocks and 4 steals, which is unlikely to happen again). Green has now gone over 50 FP in each of his four games against the Trailblazers, and I don't see any indication or defensive scheme that is going to reverse this trend moving forward. Now Curry is more of a flyer pick because I can't be sure how his knee is going to hold up, but he provides a high-upside option at a slightly cheaper price than Westbrook. After that overtime performance it wouldn't surprise me if Curry came out gunning in Game 5, so you can use him as a more risky tournament play when I imagine more people will roster Westbrook for safety purposes.

Note: Our system likes Klay Thompson, and he's not a bad option even with Curry back in the lineup, but I personally think he's overpriced given the reduction in offensive responsibilities he's likely to see.

Damian Lillard - FD 8900 DK 9800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 46.59 DK Proj. Pts - 50.28
C.J. McCollum - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5900 DK 6000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 31.57 DK Proj. Pts - 32.76
Not a lot of surprise here either if you've been keeping up with this series, but the Trailblazers rely very heavily on these 3 guys. Lillard has played like an absolute super-star in this series, and even with a great defender in Thompson checking him most of the game, he's still averaging over 30 ppg. His price really should be higher given his usage, and he's almost a bargain given his ability to go off at any given moment. McCollum is the other guy who Portland looks to for most of its scoring, and he's produced 20+ points in each of his last 3 games. I think the return of Curry actually benefits him, because now he won't have to worry about the lanky defensive presence of Shaun Livingston nearly as much (although he'll probably see a fair amount of Andre Iguodala, but still). And last, but not least, Al-Farouq Aminu has been a nice surprise for the Blazers in this postseason, and Terry Stotts has rewarded him by giving him 35+ minutes on most nights. The biggest thing for Aminu is will his shot be falling as it was in Game 4, because his ability to impact the game by rebounding and defending is unquestionable. It's a road game so it's hard to know for sure if the shot will be there in this one, but at these low prices it's hard to pass up on a guy who's been producing in this series like Aminu.

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