Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/9/16

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PITCHER

Jose Fernandez FD 10800 DK 11300
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIA
FD - 46.55 DK - 26.75
A few weeks ago when posting one of the main slate articles, I called Wily Peralta "awful." I will stick to that opinion until the day that man hangs up his glove and retires.. but the Brewers as a team are not that much better. Their offense has picked it up in the last few weeks, but notoriously against awful pitching. When facing starters such as Cueto, Nola, Wacha, Arrieta, even Jon Niese, the Brewers have failed to score more than 3 runs. It's actually astounding - besides Ryan Braun, they only have one other player that is batting above .290. As a team their average is just an embarrassing .249, while the league average is currently .301. If the run production, and overall poor pitching doesn't put a big circle around Fernandez in your lineups tomorrow, I don't know what will.

Felix Hernandez FD 10700 DK 11000
Opponent - TB (Moore) Park - @SEA
FD - 40.53 DK - 22.15
Let's be real. The numbers that King Felix put up in his last outing are not exactly impressive. Anytime you give up 8 runs in 4 inning to the Oakland Athletics at home it is far from a great outing. Tomorrow night I expect him to live up to the King Felix name. The Rays are coming off of a road stretch in which they swept the Los Angeles Angels, and I don't expect their streak to continue. He's the second most expensive pitcher on the board besides Jose Fernandez but besides his last outing, Hernandez pitches incredibly well at home. I love him to have a huge bounce back start and strike out a ton of guys. The Mariners, Robinson Cano in particular, have shown significant improvement in their offense since the start of the season, and I expect that to continue against Matt Moore, who although has been great to start the year, notoriously struggles throughout his career on the road. Get Felix active in both cash and GPP lineups.

Consider: Matt Moore

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.25
You are going to see a lot of Yankees on the list today and for good reason. While Chris Young has started the year with an increased K rate, historically this guy isn't a top line starter. Young's career numbers are bad against righties for his career and over the last couple of seasons he's allowed a .350 wOBA to that split. McCann is hitting up in the lineup with A-Rod hurting and is the top value catcher on the day. Great ballpark for lefties to jack one out and McCann's prices are in the complete value zone.

Salvador Perez FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.99
Targeting Yankee Stadium on this slate is definitely one way to go. Ivan Nova is a low K guy coming off a year that saw him with a 4.59 xFIP and 6.03 K/9 rate. He's a heavy GB% guy so the reduced K's are somewhat to be expected, but he's still considered one of the weaker arms here. Perez hit righties well last season with a .775 OPS and 17 HRs. He's very cheap on on both sites, but especially on FD.

Also considered: Steven Vogt - huge upside as a power bat.

 

FIRST BASE

Eric Hosmer FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @NYY
FD - 15.37 DK - 11.92
Hosmer continued his hot hitting against the Indians, smashing a 3 run homer of Josh Tomlin, and raising his season long OPS against right handed pitching to .971. The good news for him is that he'll be up against a significantly worse pitcher tonight (Ivan Nova) in a significantly better ballpark for left handed hitters. Great play in any format.

Chris Davis FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.53 DK - 8.69
Davis is having an interesting season, falling even more in the three true outcomes territory than he has in the past. While only batting .200 on the year, this season he's hitting .308 with runners in scoring position, and when he hits the ball, he obviously hits it very hard. Lest you think this is a fluke, it's actually pretty common for swing and miss guys. Pitchers need to be more careful around the plate with men on and can't waste as many pitches, leading to more contact.

I don't know about you, but going against the back end of the Twins rotation, who I think could get rocked by the Orioles tomorrow, I think Chris could CRUSH tournaments and lineups everywhere.

Prince Fielder FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.48 DK - 6.44
The Rangers have been great recently, and while Prince has been anything but, I still like him quite a bit here. First of all, hitting in Texas this time of year makes a huge difference. With the Northern part of the country plunged into an endless pseudo-Spring, hitting in the warm confines of Arlington should help Texas bats generally. It's a nice match-up with non-prospect Miguel Gonzalez, and if anything can help Fielder get going, it should be a home match-up in a positive platoon spot against a young and not awesome pitcher.

Also considered: Mark Teixeira.

SECOND BASE

Brandon Phillips FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.02 DK - 8.14
I really like Brandon Phillips for numerous reasons. He's put up an .846 OPS this season. He drives in runs, he steals bases, he can bat at any position in the order and still produce. If that doesn't make you interested, in his last seven games he's had 9 hits... 5 were home runs. He's .080 OPS points better against lefties for his career, and is batting .400 against them this season. And tonight he'll be up against Jon Niese, who has been nothing short of horrendous this year. Great play, any format.

Jason Kipnis FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.44 DK - 7.67
Kipnis has shown some troubling signs to start the season without a doubt, but I think there's room for hope, here. Yes, basically all of his underlying stats are worse - he's striking out at an absurd 29.7% rate, and he's walking less. His ISO is down. But a LOT of that has come from his dismal performance against lefties - he's struck out 18 times in 42 plate appearances against them. He's been serviceable against righties, posting an .837 OPS, and a solid .174 ISO. The great thing here is the match-up with Fiers - he's a righty who struggles to strike guys out - the sweet spot for Kipnis' skills.

Ben Zobrist FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - SD (Vargas) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.56
My favorite big money option at the position if you wind up saving up elsewhere. Zobrist has been consistent (thanks to the Cubs being awesome and him being so hard to K) and has flexed upside as well (thanks to the Cubs being awesome and him having good power for the position). It's a solid spot against Vargas in the generous Wrigley Field.

SHORTSTOP

Zack Cozart FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.32
Cozart is on something of a BABIP fueled tear to start the season, and there's a decent chance some regression is forthcoming. But the things he can control have looked great. He's striking out at an all time low rate (12.2%) and his batted ball data looks excellent as well - the 32.2% hard contact he's made (per FanGraphs) is a record for him as well. He's been .070 OPS points better against lefties for his career, and it's a great opportunity to pile on Jon Niese.

Jimmy Rollins FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.42 DK - 10.29
A solid high floor option tonight. Rollins still has the speed an on base ability to hit atop the White Sox order, and Colby Lewis is building on last year's 4.62 xFIP with a 4.84 xFIP this season. Friendly park, solid hitters around him - it's hard to imagine him not doing at least something.

Jean Segura FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 10.04 DK - 8.74
Trevor Story FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 10.14 DK - 8.26

It's tougher than usual to fit guys in in Coors tonight thanks to the ongoing price corrections happening industry wide, but both of these guys look like solid picks tonight. Story's break-out is well documented, and he's got a spot against de la Rosa. Segura has sneakily posted the 4th highest fantasy points per game at anyone at the position going today, and he's cheaper than any shortstop in the top 5. I'm a buyer on both if you can afford it, though I'll probably go cheaper with Cozart.

THIRD BASE

David Wright FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.56
So far so good. Wright's hitting lefties well to start the season which lines right up with his career killing of southpaws. Dude's put up a lifetime OPS over 1.000 in this platoon with a .437 wOBA. That's as good as you'll see from anyone in the game. Not a fantastic matchup against Kazmir who doesn't get the "gas can" label like some of the other pitchers going today. But the platoon splits are way in Wright's favor here.

Eugenio Suarez FD 2900 DK 4600
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.89
Yes. Another Red. The system is officially in love with Cincinnati tomorrow. For his career, Suarez is significantly better against lefties with a .346 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Should hit in an around the top of the order agaisnt the lefty Niese. Great American Ballpark played right in line with Coors for power last season (113 in the HR department) and this one could be a slugfest.

Consider Jake Lamb even with the Coors' price increase

Adrian Beltre FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.17
I prefer him against lefties of course but Miguel Gonzalez comes into this game with a career 4.46 xFIP and strikeout rate less than seven per nine. He's been a platoon neutral pitcher for his career and our system is buying Beltre as a middle of the order hitter in a power park against a weaker arm. It's eschewing the reverse platoon piece in favor of the FanDuel price. Little steep on DK though.

 

OUTFIELD

Melky Cabrera FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.88 DK - 10.09
Adam Eaton FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.97 DK - 11.57
Don't let Colby Lewis' 3.32 ERA fool you even for a moment. This is a dude still pitching with an xFIP closing in on five (4.84), who strikes out less than 6.5 batters per nine. That's going to be a real issue against guys like Eaton and Melky who are striking out 10% and 8% respectively on the season. And both are walking more than going down on strikes. These are patient hitters and that profile should cause issues for Lewis. Great power hitter's park as well gives the boost here. Eaton is especially viable on DK where he's coming very cheap.

Miguel Sano FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.28
This guy has yet to really start to show flashes of how good he can be. After the disappointing start to the year overall by Minnesota as a whole, including having to send their "future star" in Byron Buxton down to the minors, the Twins could use extra help offensively. Miguel Sano is supposed to be that break out guy in the middle of the order, who can change the game or the season, with one swing of the bat. He's coming off a shortened 2015 that saw him with a .929 OPS and .397 wOBA against righties. Tyler Wilson's never shown any real strikeout ability and while I don't love the park, I do like Sano's contact expectation in this one.

Carlos Beltran FD 2400 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @NYY
FD - 16.64 DK - 12.68
Jacoby Ellsbury FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @NYY
FD - 16.78 DK - 14.25 (IF HE PLAYS)
Brett Gardner FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @NYY
FD - 16.37 DK - 13.23

Remember how I said that Chris Young loves to give up home runs? Yeah, the system told me that one to. While although the Yankees are struggling offensively, I think this is one of the perfect times to roster them. The prices are depressed and they have a solid matchup against Young. Yankee Stadium is about as good as any park in the league for lefty power and all three of these guys (though likely Ellsbury doesn't play) have power upside against Young. Beltran's major issue this season is the K, an expectation that greatly decreases against Young's historical makeup.

Strongly consider paying up for Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and David Peralta in Coors today

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