Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/9/16 Playoffs

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Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat

Analysis
You like games that end up with fewer than 190 points? It's the Raptors and Heat, baby! While there wouldn't be much to say about this series normally, we've been delivered two huge bombshells over the weekend: both Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valancunias will almost certainly miss the game. Figuring out where those minutes are headed will likely be the key to profiting from this slate, so without further ado, let's parse it.

Top Plays
Bismack Biyombo - FD 4700 DK 3900
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
When Valancunias missed time earlier this season, Bismack was a routine 30-40+ fantasy points contributor. If Whiteside were playing I'd have some concerns about foul trouble and being up against a superior rebounder, but with this looking like a heavy dose of guys like Udonis Haslem, Josh McRobert, and Amar'e Stoudemire, I think Biyombo feasts here. I don't see any way around him playing 30+ minutes and putting up at least 5x points per dollar, and I'd say he's a favorite for 6x or better. On the same token, I likely won't be gambling on the Heat bigs. Whiteside only played 8 minutes in game 3, and none of the other guys really played enough to have a huge impact. You could make a case for Haslem as a play on DraftKings, but I love Biyombo on FD.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7600 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.23 DK Proj. Pts - 38.19
Kyle Lowry - FD 7900 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 34.96 DK Proj. Pts - 37.3
I'm not going to lose sleep on one bad game from DeRozan - he shot 6/17 (which shouldn't happen again here) and had 3 very solid games before that. As for Lowry, things are certainly looking up. It's not only great that he demonstrated both efficiency and a high volume of shots (going 11/19) in game 3, but he actually ran bad in the assist department. Without the poor shooting of his teammates, this could have been an easy 5x performance. Don't mind either today if it makes sense salary wise, and bonus points because they won't have to deal with Whiteside patrolling the paint.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 25.15 DK Proj. Pts - 27.49
The boom or bust guy. Carroll is playing HUGE minutes here, and while he's got a tough defensive assignment, we saw what he was capable of when he put up 38 fantasy points in game 2 of this series. I don't think he's super trustworthy here necessarily, but he's awfully cheap for a guy playing that many minutes in what ought to be a close game.

Dwyane Wade - FD 8100 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
Really the only guy I'd feel great about rostering from Miami today. Wade's gone ahead and grabbed the game by the horns in 2 of the 3 games in this series - shooting 25 efficient shots, yes, but also rebounding like a madman, pulling down 7 a game in his last 8 games. With the Heat trailing 2-1, you can believe Wade will be bringing at home once again.

Consider: Joe Johnson.
 

Golden State Warriors at Portland Trailblazers

Analysis
The far faster game on the slate, and thus where most of the chalk plays will come today. We saw the Trail Blazers finally get off the schneid in game 3, and the two teams scored 228 points combined. Did I mention this is where your fantasy value comes from today? It is.

Top Plays
The Warriors
Klay Thompson - FD 8200 DK 9000
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 45.11 DK Proj. Pts - 49
Draymond Green - FD 10000 DK 11800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 50.28 DK Proj. Pts - 52.86
Not a lot to see, here. Green has morphed into an uber-star in Steph's absence, and Klay has been incrementally better as well. Both are terrific values, since neither really has a guy that can cover him on the opposite team. The Trail Blazers made a noble try with Ed Davis, but Green simply outclasses him with his passing ability. Love these two in any format.

The rest
Whom can you trust among the other Warriors guys? Each of Iggy and Barnes have had some great games and some complete disappearances. Livingston has been generally solid, but his minutes are headed in the wrong direction after getting gutted by Lillard and co in game 3. I don't think you feel great about playing him in game 4, but it's tough to imagine Leandro Barbosa playing 20+ minutes here. If you need to, I suppose you can grin and bear it.

The Trail Blazers
Ah, the real feast of the day. They've got the best match-up of the day on account of the Warriors fast PACE, and have juggled minutes enough that there's still lots of value.

Damian Lillard - FD 8900 DK 9600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 46.59 DK Proj. Pts - 50.28
C.J. McCollum - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Just to get the chalk out of the way first, I imagine these guys will be in every optimal lineup today. Lillard's huge game 3 is well documented by now, but he had been solid in the 3 games prior to that one as well. And, yes, he's making the most off of playing against back-ups right now, but he can only play the guys that are put in front of him. I love him again tonight. McCollum had been a bit shakier, but finally put up a game worthy of his minutes increase in game 3, scoring 35 fantasy points in what passes for a balanced line for him. I like both again today.

Ed Davis - FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 25.55 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
The big riser in game 3! Ed played 30 minutes and was a basket away from a double double, putting up 24 fantasy points on a minimum salary. The price is up a bit, but he should be able to pay you back and then some. If you think the Blazers are going to pivot away from what finally worked in game 3, I'd say you're nuts. Still, some will be gunshy in this one and figure that Plumlee will sink back into his normal role. It's looking more and more to this analyst that Plumlee just doesn't fit in this series. I'll bet on Davis anywhere.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5900 DK 5800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 31.57 DK Proj. Pts - 32.76
We expected a minutes regression for Aminu in game 3, but Harkless' injury helped his minutes head north of 40. I'm not sure if we can count on 40 minutes here, but it might not matter. Aminu is a great piece for Portland to play because he can switch onto a number of Golden State's perimeter guys, and not get instantly destroyed by Draymond Green. His 23/10 game might not be indicative of what we see every game, but it won't need to be to qualify him as the safest small forward on the board today by a healthy margin.

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