welcome to Sunday baseball! We have 15 games on the docket with a few aces on the mound and more than a few gas cans. Make sure to check out our 3 other MLB articles as well as they will touch on any weather news, stacks and some more top pitching options. Let's get into the top options at each position!
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Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @SD
FD - 40.46 DK - 22.46
First of all, let's touch on Jake Arrieta. While Arrieta is in a great spot to produce, the price is really tough. Matt Harvey is sitting $2800 cheaper on FanDuel and considerably cheaper on DraftKings as well. Harvey has the best match up on the day against the Padres. The Padres are the league's worst team against righties with a 77 wRC+ and 22% hard contact rate. Harvey has been dominant against both lefties and righties with a combined .265 wOBA over the course of his career. He will also be pitching in the best park for pitchers in the majors. Harvey should go out and dominate this team like we have seen many right handers do. Harvey is my number 1 option on the day in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @SF
FD - 35.2 DK - 18.73
Jeff "Shark" Samardzija has started the year pitching well with a wOBA under .300 and an elite hard contact rate of only 20%. While those numbers may not be sustainable, he is definitely going to have a bounce back season. He has upped his fastball velocity to 96 and is getting more movement on his secondary pitches. This match u sets up very well for him as the Rockies are a bottom 5 team on the road. While these guys all have great numbers, they are very inflated due to Coors Field. The Rockies have been struggling recently as well and this is not the spot for them to turn it around. They will just wait until they head back home. Shark is a pitcher I am comfortable with in all formats today, however, I like him more in tournaments with Harvey on the slate.
Opponent - WSH (Roark) Park - @CHC
FD - 41.21 DK - 22.63
Speaking of Arrieta, you can still consider him though. If there are enough cheap options coming through the hitter ranks then there's no denying Arrieta is the top raw point guy on the slate. At a -235 favorite against the Nats you can project him for a bunch of win expectancy points. The problem is he needs to almost definitely get there in order to hit value. He's the top arm no doubt, you just are taking a big risk on the salary.
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 32.07 DK - 17.14
Aaron Nola has pitched very well in his last 3 starts with nearly identical stat lines of 7 innings and 7 strikeouts. I love the way this match up sets up for Nola to have a 4th straight good start. The Marlins have the 4th lowest hard contact rate and that may drop even further with Dee Gordon out of the lineup. Nola has been extremely effective against both lefties and righties with a -.300 combined wOBA. Nola has improved his fastball velocity and his off-speed pitches have gained more movement. Nola is more of a tournament play for me in this one as he does have a high blow up risk.
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.49
Stephen Vogt will be facing off with the right handed Chris Tillman in Camden Yards. Vogt is one of the better hitting catchers in the league against right as evidenced by his .353 wOBA and .479 SLG percentage. Chris Tillman has struggled against lefties over the course of his career with a 4.35 xFIP and .292 BABIP. I look for the Athletics to get to Tillman and Vogt will be right in the middle of it all. Vogt is a great cash game and tournament option as he is not reliant on power to produce.
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.67 DK - 9.53
Brian McCann is going to be my favorite tournament catcher on the day as he mashes right handed pitching and is facing a guy who gives up a ton of home runs in Steven Wright. Wright has given up an above average .301 career wOBA against lefties, however, his peripherals suggest a lot different. Wright holds a 4.65 xFIP and a 36.2 hard contact rate against lefties. This is a top 5 ballpark for left handed hitters and McCann has a great shot to get a hold of one tonight.
Consider - Victor Martinez, Yasmani Grandal
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @DET
FD - 14.51 DK - 11.07
What is there to not like about Miguel Cabrera today? He is swinging the bat well and is facing a left handed pitcher who can't get righties out too well. In 2015, Perez gave up a .336 wOBA and all of his peripherals suggest decline. Although very obvious, Miguel Cabrera has destroyed left handed pitching over the course of his career with a rediculous .414 wOBA, 39.8 hard contact rate and a .429 on base percentage. Cabrera is certainly my top option at the position and is worth paying up for.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 15.11 DK - 11.52
Adrian Gonzalez produced yesterday with 2 hits and will look to carry over that game into this one. The Dodgers are facing off with the homer prone right-hander Marco Estrada in the Rogers Centre. Estrada has given up 111 home runs over the course of 9 years and has an average HR/9 of 1.33. Gonzalez is a great hitter against right handed pitchers and hit them to a .360 wOBA clip just last season. Gonzalez is sitting at $2800 on FanDuel which makes it very hard to fade him.
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @BAL
FD - 15.58 DK - 11.64
Chris Davis is a guy I love to play when he is going to be under 15% owned because he can hit 2 home runs against anyone. With all of the great options at first base today, I fully expect Davis to be overlooked. Kendall Graveman is a guy who has struggled against both lefties and righties over the course of his career as evidenced by his combined wOBA of .326. Chris Davis on the other hand, has torn apart righties over the past few years with a .410 wOBA and ridiculous 44% hard contact rate. Davis is a great tournament play on a day where the first base ownership will be very spread out.
Consider - Mark Teixeira, Anthony Rizzo
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @DET
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.7
Here is our second Detroit Tigers bat and there just might be more. The Tigers are a team I like to target when facing a bad left handed pitcher. Martin Perez is just that and as mentioned above, his peripherals suggest a ton of decline. Ian Kinsler has always hit lefties well as evidenced by his .345 wOBA and 30% hard contact rate. This entire Tigers offense is in play and Kinsler is one of the top bats in the offense.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.3
Chase Utley seems to be a guy that I keep landing on recently and it has been paying off very well. Utley is likely going to be leading off here against Marco Estrada. Utley has hit righties very well over the course of his career with a .368 wOBA and a 36.8% hard contact rate. As mentioned above, Marco Estrada is an average pitcher who has trouble giving up the long ball. I do prefer Utley in tournaments as Kinsler is my favorite cash game option.
Consider - Jason Kipnis, Cesar Hernandez
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.13 DK - 11.1
Another Dodgers bat Yes. This offense is in a great spot here against a pitcher that gives up a ton of home runs in a ballpark that is very conducive to the longball. Seager entered into this year as the league's top prospect and has performed well so far. Seager has hit righties to the tune of a .317 wOBA and will only improve as he gains major league experience. Seager is a great cash game and tournament play.
Opponent - COL (Butler) Park - @SF
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.47
Brandon Crawford has been swinging the bat extremely well over the past 10 games with 11 hits, 4 multi-hit games and 2 home runs. I look for Crawford to continue the dominance in this one against a bad right hander in Eddie Butler. Butler has struggled against lefties throughout this entire career and this year will be no different. In 2015, Butler gave up a putrid .452 wOBA against lefties and his peripherals do not suggest much improvement. Crawford and the rest of the Giants left handed bats are firmly in play.
Consider - Brad Miller
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.43 DK - 9.9
Machado is my favorite bat of the day and it is not too close. Kendall Graveman has shown reverse splits throughout his career and Machado has done the exact same. In 2015, Graveman gave up a .342 wOBA and 11 home runs to righties in only 60 innings. Machado on the other hand, Machado hit righties to the tune of a .384 wOBA and 34.2% hard contact rate. This ballpark sets up great for the match up as Camden Yards is a top 10 park for right handed hitters. Machado is my top option on this slate and will be in every lineup I make.
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 13.61 DK - 10.68
Maikel Franco is facing off with Justin Nicolino and the Marlins is a game with a 7.5 over/under. Nicolino has struggled against righties thus far into his career with a .340 wOBA and 5.17 xFIP. While Franco is better against righties, he hits lefties just fine as evidenced by his .259 wOBA and 127 wRC+. This Phillies team is going to get to Nicolino and Franco is the best hitter in the lineup.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.27
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.02 DK - 10.14
I promise, the final 2 Dodgers! While I would love too, I won't go into why Estrada is great pitcher to target today. However, let's take a look at Puig and Pederson. Puig has displayed reverse splits throughout his career with a .366 wOBA and 36.2% hard contact rate. Joc Pederson on the other hand, destroyed righties last year with a .404 wOBA and 152 wRC+. This whole Dodgers offense is in play and these 2 outfielders have huge upside.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.07 DK - 11.27
David Peralta is the weekly left handed hitter that gets to bat against Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz is one of the worst pitchers I have ever witnessed against left handers and there is no reason to believe he will improve today. Peralta hit righties to the tune of a .397 wOBA in 2015 and will likely only improve from here on out as he is entering his prime. This Diamondbacks team doesn't not have a ton of lefties but the ones they do have are certainly in play.
Consider - Domingo Santana, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Braun
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View Comments
Not going to pick on Tillman. He has returned to form so far this season. I am on him at SP2. There are lots of gas cans today to choose from.
Anthony keep going back and forth between Tillman and Corbin as SP2
I think Corbin has the better match-up, but Tillman is the better pitcher right now. Coin toss John in my opinion
Leaning Tillman after reading couple quotes from Arizona manager about Corbin
Not going to complain but it seems to me that this week the optimal lineup has had some unusually low scores, and it seems more often then not has not even been close to cashing even in cash games, I guess I am just wondering why this is because I want to make the necessary changes to start cashing again. Is it simply because the players are under delivering or other players are over performing. Or has it just been a weird and low week for the optimal lineup?
how do you guys suggest hand picking H2H matchups on FD? I have read that you can click on their name to see their record but I am guessing it has changed since it will not let me now.
Zac, baseballdata.com is what I use. Everything you need.
What teams are best to stack today?
I like DBax, Orioles and Brewers.
Check out our stacks article!
Austyn just happened to look and similar thinking rolling out top 4 jays hitters thinking might be lighter owned because of other juicy matchup plus 2-4 brewers and kinsler with tomlin and iwakuma with 400 left in a gpp
The system had some awesome picks yesterday. Odor and Maz coming out with history homers. Then Turner finally turns on the heat. Puig had never seen a knuckle ball and Happ capitalized on this, Fielder needs to get his big butt in shape ( he should have blasted a couple of those pitches yesterday. )And Perez was off at the plate. Use the Optimizer as your core then make those substitutions that just don't look right. 136 was awesome and if Cueto got his W as he almost did the Opt. would have had us all paid. That's baseball!
Some backups in make Getting Arrieta in a lineup not that bad. DeJesus, Cesar Hernandez, Lamb, Weeks Jr., even Mazara is ridiculously cheap on DF.
Definitely rolling an Arietta/Harvey lineup out there.
Good morning. No picks article today yet?