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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/7/16 Playoffs
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Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Analysis
After two games, we’ve had two slow, grinding contests. They both went to OT, yet I wasn’t particularly entertained. I guess if I was a Heat or Raptors fan… Maybe if I had a DFS lineup to stir my interest? Great idea! The problem here is the game’s likely low Pace, given the teams’ defenses, playing styles, and performances to date. That makes it hard to project players from either side to have a particularly good fantasy night. The players who look to get the most touches won’t get that many relative to a typical game (or the other game on the slate). The higher priced (over $7k) options here do not project to have good multiples. One or two might have strong performances, but it’s impossible to expect that on average. We know D-Wade will be clutch, but that doesn’t mean he’ll put up 30. Is anyone out there willing to run Lowry in a cash contest? There are a couple of solid mid-tier plays, but tread carefully with anyone else in this one.
Top Plays
DeMarre Carroll - FD 4800 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 24.78 DK Proj. Pts - 26.76
Carroll is the second-best SF option for Saturday’s slate on FD. Fortunately you get (have) to play two, meaning Demarre is a solid play there. On DK it’s a different (even better) story. His significantly lower price, combined with the favorable scoring system, render him the top SF option, and arguably the play of the night at any position. Will he put up a 9x like last game? You can’t expect that, but somewhere between a 9x and Game 1’s 5x seems reasonable. We like him to go over 6x on average. Get him in your lineups.
Jonas Valanciunas - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 33.98 DK Proj. Pts - 34.56
JV is a monster in real life, and produces fantasy points like crazy on a per-minute basis. The problem is counting on him to get near 40 minutes of run as did in the first two games of the series. If he sees that much court time again, he’d be the top Center option on both sites. However, it’s more realistic to expect a low-to-mid 30’s night. That definitely makes him a fine option, but not a no-brainer. If you like him for high 30s instead of lower 30s, put him in. At the less favorable expectation, he’s still one of two realistic choices on the night. He has a high floor, and I like his upside a lot.
Joe Johnson - FD 5100 DK 5000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
Joe Johnson being one of a handful of picks from this game speaks volumes. He’s not a bad option, and if you don’t want to run chalk at SF, he’s certainly a nice pivot play. We like a couple of other guys quite a bit more, even on DK where he’d be a strong play on many nights. Outside of diversifying your lineups, I’d go with the other positional options.
Luol Deng - FD 6500 DK 6800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.4 DK Proj. Pts - 28.81
This pick makes a strong statement about not just the game, but the position overall. Deng is simply less valuable in fantasy than real life. Running an NBA team? Love to have him. In DFS, unless you’re willing to roll with Ed Davis, he’s your third option on FD. Ugh. I think I’ll stick to the chalk in cash games. Note that he’s listed at SF on DK, which makes him an even worse play.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trailblazers
Analysis
If we can’t make many recommendations from the other game, it’s reasonable to expect a lot from this one. That’s what you’ll find below. The projections assume Steph Curry won’t play, and I think that’s a very safe proposition. This is good news from a DFS perspective (at least for cash games) as it provides predictability. We’re likely to see much of what we saw in the first two contests. Portland returns home, but they haven’t shown a ton (against a full team) in the City of Roses during the playoffs. In Round 1, they pulled out a hard-fought Game 3 win against the full Clippers squad, then barely won their last two home games against the Clips’ second team. It’s tough to expect a Blazers win (Golden State is actually favored by 3), much less a romp. What is reasonable to expect is solid statistical performances from a bunch of players, and that’s what we like to see around here.
Top Plays
Harrison Barnes - FD 4400 DK 4500
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.72 DK Proj. Pts - 25.37
Barnes is one of my favorite plays of the night on FD, and easily the top option as his position on a Pts/$ basis. He gets more run with Steph out, and seems to have found his shot again after stinking up the joint throughout the Rockets series. But for Demarre Carroll, he’d be the top SF option on DK as well, and is one of the top values of the night at any position. Run him with Carroll on FD, and find a way to get him in your lineup on DK. You’re best off spending big money on other positions.
Klay Thompson - FD 8000 DK 9100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 43.99 DK Proj. Pts - 47.77
At his relatively low price you can’t afford not to run Klay Thompson on FD on Saturday. He’s that much better than the other alternatives. Despite the bonus for the 3-ball on DK, his outrageous price makes him less attractive. As the primary shooter for the Dubs, he’s still a viable option. He’s not a must-play on performance, but may be due to salary issues (as in, you have to spend it somewhere, and SF surely isn’t it). I do think you should run him on DK, just temper your expectations given what you need to spend.
Damian Lillard - FD 8500 DK 9200
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 45.48 DK Proj. Pts - 49.08
The ultimate chalk play and place to spend your money, Lillard does fall into the “must” category on Saturday. He is easily the top PG on both sites. Like, by over 20%. Even at his inflated price on DK. He has to be in your lineup based both on value and the necessity of spending all your available dollars. Plug him in and move along.
C.J. McCollum - FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
On FD, McCollum isn’t in the same “necessary” category as his backcourt mate, but most certainly represents a solid play. You need two SGs there, and he pretty much stands out as the second choice after Klay. On DK, he’s Saturday’s non-punt SG of the night. With a high floor/ceiling combination, McCollum is another nice opportunity to get production and invest your dollars on both sites. Don’t let his inconsistency scare you off – the floor reflects the DFSR system’s expectation that he’s due to be “on” for Saturday.
Mason Plumlee - FD 6200 DK 6400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 30.35 DK Proj. Pts - 30.8
I mentioned that there were two viable Center options on Saturday. Plumlee is the second. He’s neck-and-neck with Valanciunas in Pts/$ terms on FD and DK. I can see playing either. They’re in the same salary range, so that doesn’t differentiate them much. It’s worth noting that Plumlee projects for a slightly lower floor and marginally higher ceiling. Neither is a bad choice. Note that we’re not recommending Andrew Bogut on Saturday. He shows a good multiple, but his price has shot up 15% in two games, bringing his floor into question. You also need to spend money, and the other centers are good places to do so.
Draymond Green - FD 9600 DK 11200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 47.82 DK Proj. Pts - 50.28
While on the subject of needing to spend money, it seems like the right spot to bring up Draymond. It’s really a tale of two sites here. On FD, he’s priced TWENTY PERCENT lower relative to his DK price. Even at the reduced FD rate, he carries the highest salary of the night. You need two PFs, and he’s the top option. Even if you didn’t need to invest your salary, which you do, he’s the play. On DK, he’s pretty close to must, but for different reasons. The price seems almost prohibitive, to the point where you might in fact consider investing elsewhere. The issue here is positional options, because the next pick is a SF on DK. Despite the outrageous price tag, he’s essentially the top PF on the site. I know he had one big game, but I remain uncomfortable with Ed Davis. So much so that I’ll be running Green.
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5600 DK 5500
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.62 DK Proj. Pts - 28.66
Aminu isn’t one of the last picks because of his value. He’s the second-best alternative on FD, and third isn’t in the neighborhood. He should be in your lineup. On DK, as a SF he’s nice enough, but there are better alternatives. He rarely dips below 4x, and typically approaches 5x. Other than going off one night against the underhanded Clippers though, he won’t get you much more. Run him on FD, move along on DK.
Shaun Livingston - FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.33 DK Proj. Pts - 22.5
And finally… Because you have to play two point guards on FanDuel. That’s all I got. Really. Don’t touch him on DK.
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image sources
- Damian Lillard, Raul Neto: (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
47 Visitor Comments
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I honestly think that the Blazers put a really good whooping on GSW in game 3
Hey just wanted to says thx for ur site and tell a story of a small time player (2-3 lineups a night), who actually hit last night on fanduel. No i didnt not have Frye, but had the best lineup without him and finished 29th out of 145k. It was crazy fun to actually hit for once after thinking like most that you just cannot compete with the big dogs. Too bad b-ball is almost over!! Keep the faith my fellow fantasy players.
See this dfs Danny contributes NOTHING here. Just ‘go visit his blog’. He’s spamming the boards.
Meanwhile cashed hard with the opti. Took 1st in the 25$ 2k mini. Cashed 400 for 1st. Then another 150 in my main gpps. Rolling again tonight with the optimizer. I’m loving me a Portland stack with a little dragic as my core. Gotta be somewhat contrarian
Do you think big Ed Davis should be included in that stack? Would def free up some cap space.
Oh good. They beat me to it. Well done dfsr. We come here for you guys. Not some random dudes fly by night service.
Hey Ben,
Currently working on this issue. Fiddling with the comment settings to decrease this spam. It’s tricky because we don’t want to moderate comments because then the discussion gets stilted, but in doing that we have to relax the filter settings. But agreed, I don’t want this here either. We’ve worked really hard to grow our traffic organically and without these little “tricks” folks can do.
That’s awesome Chad. That’s happened to me once on Draftkings. I’ve won quite a few times but hit pretty big just one time. It’s a real high and a great feeling.
Steve Adams gets 15 more pts, I win $2,500. Instead I got $20. The life of Fantasy basketball.
Congrats on the win, but yeah, it gets aggravating when the BIG $$$ is within reach, and you wind up with a mere fraction of it.
Keep grinding.
Never mind no they didn’t.
I prefer Iggy over Barnes, but it’s close, otherwise I’m pretty much following your advice to the letter…..thanks.
On a side note: The other night I won 30.00 on a FD hockey tourney, finished 5th out of 1700+, and only 4 points from the top prize.
It was just a 1.00 entry fee, but the thing is that I did it in a rush and didn’t have time to refer to any advice websites, in other words I made all of the picks myself. Gave me a great sense of satisfaction even if it was only 30.00.
My point is that I think this stuff is starting to rub off on me, it’s becoming second nature to a degree. I really think the more you play the more likely it is that you eventually hit it big. Luck will always be a large part of the equation, but all of that research and advice seeking is extremely important as well.
Still, you would think finishing 5th out of over 1700 would win you more than a measly 30.00, but I’ll take it, a win is a win.
Danny Green became non existant after 1st quarter & cost me big money….
I want to first say to Doug thanks for this awesome site last night I won $50 on DK. This site truly helps me and helps me use my optimizer correctly. I am on a roll right now- Here is my DK lineup for tonight.
PG Kyle Lowry
SG Terrence Ross
SF DeMarre Carroll
PF Draymond Green
C J. Valanciunas
G C.J. McCollum
F Harrison Barnes
UTIL Al-Farouq Aminu
Hi there i love playing but need a good linephew opimizer
Can u help me pick a good one n I will reward u when I win
Can u give a lineup for FRIDAY please for today
Believe it or not I referred the channing frye pick last night, he of course went off and I also squeezed in Humphries at a bare minimum price. I won huge last night, but thats history now. I also took some advice from someone who has their own blog now, he posts on this site. He referred me to Mike Scott, ouch! Did that hurt me alot on a few lineups lol. Ill be looking for that one epic pick or two and I’ll throw them out there later. Gotta speak with my insider sharks 😉
Hey Doug, what is your hunch on Ezeli? Do you think the dubs will play him more in game 3? He had a nice Game 2 and was extremely efficient!
I finished 107th in the 50 k tournament in dk last night, Frye came out so clutch, would have liked more from humps, but what killed me is Tony Parker finally going off. Oh well back at it tonight
Hey Ben….Whos looking good today in the line ups?
So who is tonight’s channing Frye?
Good night for many sounds like. Could have been huge I was sitting 3rd in large FD tourney with 5 min left. But only had Aldridge and he didn’t do enough! Went from 3rd to 45th pretty fast. But I only had 4 line ups in so it is possible!!!
Terrence Ross is a name keep getting thrown at me from the people I am speaking to. But it seems he may be a little more owned then I’d like….
Ross has blown up before in the past, given the struggles of lowry and derozan, he could get his
Any thoughts on Ezeli? I think he could be today’s Channing Frye. He was excellent last game and he is a big that contain Plummer and the other Portland bogs along with green.
Saturday’s Hybrid L/U for FantasyAces by The Walrus!
G D.Lillard 38.88 6,300.00
G K.Thompson 33.18 5,800.00
G S.Livingston 17.67 4,200.00
F D.Carroll 17.94 3,800.00
F J.Johnson 22.06 4,550.00
F D.Green 39.53 6,500.00
C H.Whiteside 38.64 6,150.00
Util A.Aminu 22.16 3,950.00
Util A.Crabbe 15.03 3,700.00
New to FantasyAces? Support those that support you and join using this link:
http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
The Frye…tonight?
Crabbe, Powell, Ross, Ezeli?
Any thoughts on derozan? Is it safe to fade him?
I’m liking the optimizer today. But I’m throwing in whiteside as I see most of today’s centers neutralizing eachother. Still deciding between Barnes and iggy. I agree with ross as I have him at least 7/35 lineups.
I also have crabbe in a few lineups as well.
Anyone have a dk gpp lineuo?
Hey Doug, aminu or deng for 50s?? I have room for each with a little left over.
Spent $29 buckaroos and got $71 back!!!
I had Fry and the rest well you know………………………INCREDIBLE LINEUP!!! Thank you DFSR!!!
Crabbe, Richardson, Ross, or Henderson….that is my current dilemma. Which of these guys will have the bigger game? I’m leaning Henderson. Thoughts?
Pretty sure seen it early…this is logically speaking portlands best shot to take a game aminu lillard and mccollum for me tonight. Livingston = safe value pg2.. Low vegas total for tor/mia = slow pace but usually implies a possible big game for a big man or two..could be wrong but not trusting big plum at all in this series. Whiteside/JV safe at center and allows more balanced roster construction..the big question is who to play at sf?
Jv allows better roster construction*
Also thinking carroll because of low vegas total and iggy over barnes because his upside is stronger…if barnes isnt scoring at least 15 actual points ur screwed
Anybody got cash lineups?
I tend to agree iggy for gpp upside Barnes for cash then
Lol so true nick, Barnes is so sketchy lol
I have trouble with Powell being so high on the projections today, he’s essentially done nothing and Terrence Ross is having a great series thus far.
Anyone have a draftkings gpp lineup?
Ross should come back down to earth. And they have Powell at 17 points. Not really pushing him down our throats with that.
I doubt Powell does much
Patterson is starting now according to Rotoworld
Bogut is my guy tonight… People drifting towards Ezeli, low ownership. I’m im ??
for fd cash:
would you take plumlee and johnson or val and iggy
Doug, please explain. Your article LOVES Barnes yet the optimizer rosters Igoudala??
Optimizer was right on tonight!..cashed out.