Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 87 – 5/8/16

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UFC Fight Night 87 gives us Mother’s Day action on Sunday afternoon from Rotterdam, Netherlands. I love the overseas cards because I can watch a main event and it's not 12:30 am on the east coast. It really is the little things. Anyway, this card has some hidden DFS value and heavyweight clashes in the co-main and main events, what more could you ask for? Another winning week? Let’s see what we can do.

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

Kyoji Horiguchi ($10,700)

Vegas Line: -550
Career Record: 16-2
UFC Record: 5-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 9 KO / 1 Sub / 5 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Chico Camus

I know I preach to lean on the heavyweights (and you’ll see one below) but I love the flyweight favorite in this one, Kyoji Horiguchi. A former title contender, Horiguchi has ripped through the Flyweight division with the exception of his fifth round loss to Demetrios Johnson, but everyone loses to Mighty Mouse. Horiguchi has good finish potential for his weight class and is fighting just an average guy in Neil Seery, so I’m loading up on the 25-year old Japanese product of American Top Team.

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Alistair Overeem ($10,300)

Vegas Line: -220
Career Record: 40-14, 1 NC
UFC Record: 5-3
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 17 KO / 19 Subs / 31 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 9 KO / 2 Subs
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round TKO – Junior dos Santos

Heavyweights in the main event, you almost have to use this bout in your lineup. Overeem is the smart play as he fights in his home country and is coming off one of the most impressive wins of his long, long career after finishing Junior dos Santos. Andrei Arlovski was knocked out in the first round of his last fight by Stipe Miocic and I think Overeem could duplicate that perofrmance and put himself in line for his own title shot.

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Jon Tuck ($8,600)

Vegas Line: -145
Career Record: 9-2
UFC Record: 3-2
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Finishes: 4 KO / 4 Subs / 7 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round Sub (RNC) - Tae Hyun Bang

This isn’t technically an upset and it requires some explaining, but Tuck represents WAY too much value not to mention. When the DraftKings salaries were posted Tuck was set to face Nick Hein, a fight in which he was the underdog. But Hein pulled out six days before the fight and a UFC newcomer, Josh Emmett stepped up to take on Tuck. Tuck is now a -145 favorite with an $8,600 price tag and Hein is making his UFC debut on short notice – not a good spot.

If that’s not enough to convince you, Tuck has never been finished and has seven first round knockouts to his credit, including last time out against Tae Hyun Bang. This fight isn’t a slam dunk for a variety of reasons but at $8,600 I’m taking my chances and playing Tuck everywhere.

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