Toronto Blue Jays' Edwin Encarnacion watches his RBI single against the Kansas City Royals during the sixth inning in Game 2 of baseball's American League Championship Series on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Welcome to another busy day in daily fantasy baseball. There are 15 games throughout the day on Wednesday and we will touch on players across the entire slate. Be sure to check out the three other articles for today. We will cover our favorite stacks, top starting pitchers that were not covered in this article and a news and updates article. Good luck everyone!
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Early Slate
Opponent - ATL (Chacin) Park - @NYM
FD - 37.39 DK - 19.98
Matz is my favorite starter in the early slate and he has everything going for him on Wednesday. He is in a great spot vs. the Braves who own the worst wOBA(.248) and second worst strikeout rate(26.3%) vs. left handed pitching. Matz had a rough start to the year giving up seven earned runs to the Marlins but has been lights out since, going 3-0 with .93 ERA and striking out very close to 10 batters per nine innings. The Mets are big favorites at home and Citi Field has consistently been a great pitchers park. Roll with Matz in any format today.
Consider - Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester
Evening Slate
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @MIA
FD - 44.06 DK - 24.95
He is the highest projected pitcher of the entire slate and comes with huge strikeout upside in a home matchup vs. the Diamondbacks. For his career, Fernadez has a 1.61 ERA and very low .222 wOBA against playing at home vs. a 3.77 ERA and .284 wOPBA against on the road. It has been an up and down season to this point with a 2-2 record where he has allowed nine earned runs in the losses and only four total in his other four starts. He is pitching much better than his 4.08 ERA suggests as he is operating with a 2.81 xFIP at the moment. Oh ya, he also strikes out over 10 batters per nine innings for his career.
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @STL
FD - 31.18 DK - 15.95
If you are looking to stack your bats on the late slate Leake makes a terrific GPP play on FanDuel or second pitcher on DraftKings. It has been a very disappointing start the season for him but he comes into this home matchup in a good spot to pick up his first win as a Cardinal. He doesn't strike many batters out(5.83 K/9) forcing him to be a ground ball pitcher and that is where the issue has been. He is currently only pitching to a 46% ground ball rate which is the reason for the four home runs he has given up in his last three starts. He will face the Phillies who currently rank 24th in team wOBA(.293) and own a -23 run differential on the season.
Consider - Carlos Rodon, Drew Smyly
Early Slate
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.84
The top projected catcher of the early slate and always one of the most consistent options in daily fantasy. He has positive splits with a career .301 average vs. left handed pitching and comes into this game red hot. He has tallied a hit in five straight and 13 of his last 14 games with a 121 wRC+. He lacks the power upside needed for winning a GPP but makes a terrific cash game play in the early slate for the all day slate.
Evening Slate
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.66
Before getting Tommy John surgery back in 2014 he had put together three straight seasons of 20+ HR for the Orioles. He is trying to recapture that success but before he can he will need to cut down on the strikeouts. Striking out shouldn't be a problem tonight vs. the Yankees who are throwing C.C. Sabathia out on the bump. His K rate has dropped each of the last three years and is currently sitting just over six K's per nine innings. He is also walking over four batters per nine while Wieters has an above average(9.7%) walk rate. It is also noteworthy that Wieters is a career .276 hitter vs. left handed pitching(only a .249 career average vs. righties).
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.04
I know what you're thinking, you don't need to say it. Martin has been absolutely horrible to start the year with a .141 average and 43.7% strikeout rate while walking less than 10% for the first time since his rookie season back in 2006. I am going to go with the projection system on this one. He is close to the highest rated catcher on the slate(PTS/$) in a good spot to turn the offense around. He is facing Colby Lewis who is a fly ball pitcher and striking out less than six batters per nine innings. Don't trust him in cash games but take a shot in GPP's here his slow start will leave him in the 1% ownership range.
Consider - Buster Posey
Early Slate
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.48
It has been a terrific start to the season for Carter as he closed out April with five home runs and started May with two more. He has always been know for his power and has finally seen his strikeout rate fall below 30% for the first time since his rookie season in 2010. He has a tremendous hard hit ball % that is well above average at 37.9%. He hits in a prime spot in the order and will face a lefty Hector Santiago on Wednesday who is a fly ball pitcher(45% GB rate) and has given up five home runs in five starts this season. Load up on the Brew Crew.
Consider - Anthony Rizzo
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.29 DK - 10.71
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.81
Trying to find the right opportunity to stack the Blue Jays power bats has been a challenge to say the least this season. They sit in the middle of the pack in team wOBA vs. both right handed and left handed pitching while striking out as a team close to 25% of the time. What happened to the patient Blue Jays from 2015? The projection system loves the Blue Jays bats tonight and it makes sense when you look at the matchup vs. Colby Lewis. Although he has started the season 2-0 in five starts he is striking out less than six batters per nine innings and has given up seven home runs. Smoak has been the more consistent player as of late with hits in seven of his last 10 games and has a really high 21% walk rate for the season. I would recommend using Smoak in cash games and Encarnacion for a GPP stack.
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.28 DK - 9.92
The power hitting first basemen is in a great spot for fantasy success on Wednesday in a matchup vs. soft throwing Tyler Wilson. After starting the year out in the bullpen, Wilson made two starts giving up a home run in each and has a strikeout rate below 5% for the season. Tex is a switch hitter coming off a season in 2015 in which he hit .296 with 25 home runs vs. left handed pitching. Load up on Yankess and Orioles as this game could be one of the highest scoring of the entire day.
Consider - Byung Ho Park
Early Slate
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.16 DK - 7.28
If he is back in the starting lineup for the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon he makes a fantastic value play at minimum pricing on both sites. After spending the better part of five years in the Cardinals and Athletics minor league system, he has made his way to the majors via Milwaukee. He is still finding his way as a hitter striking out 22% of the time which has resulted in a very low .120 average. The good news is that he is a patient hitter(28% walk rate) and coming off a game where he was hitting 6th in the order. His low salary allows you to spend up on pitching and power.
Consider - Brandon Phillips
Evening Slate
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.61 DK - 9.12
The 32 year old veteran second basemen, in his 10th year in the league, is once again proven his critics wrong. He has been a very consistent fantasy option with a .324 average and has already recorded 19 runs scored which is currently 12th in the majors. He has also added some power with three home runs and 13 runs batted in.
Consider - Roughned Odor
Early Slate
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.59 DK - 9.5
The Brewers have enjoyed the presence of their new shortstop hitting near the top of the order. Villar is walking over 13% of the time to start the year and sits with a .372 OBP which opens the door for a ton of runs with the power bats of Braun and Carter hitting behind him. He also presents extra upside with his speed as he sits second in the majors with eight stolen bases.
Consider - Ketel Marte
Evening Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.33
His first full season with the Blue Jays isn't going exactly as planned as he is hitting just .165 and striking out a career high 29% of the time so far in 2016. He has shown the power in which he has provided throughout his career with five home runs and 13 RBI hitting out of the five hole. There are some positives to take out of the month of April and early days of May. He is walking 13% of the time and is due fro some positive regression as his BABIP is sitting at .179 for the season. He hits in a good hitters park in Toronto and should start to benefit once the top of the order gets it going. His early season struggles have helped lower his salary and his ownership making him a great GPP play on Wednesday.
Consider - Aledmys Diaz
Early Slate
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.17
The Giants and Duffy are in a great spot on Wednesday afternoon to score some runs against the Reds in the Great American Ballpark. They matchup against Straily who has come out of the bullpen to start three straight games and hasn't yet made it out of the 6th inning. He has given six earned runs with the biggest issue being walks(4.5 BB/9). Duffy is a contact hitter hitting third for the Giants right in front of Buster Posey. He should be in line for some fantasy production if he can get on base and let the power bats drive him home.
Consider - Kris Bryant
Evening Slate
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.85
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.13
As you are probably starting to notice the projections absolutely love the Yankee hitters(literally all of them) against fill in start Tyler Wilson. His first three appearances came out of the bullpen in long relief where he struck out four in eight innings pitched. Not much has changed since joining the rotation as he has only recorded six strike outs in 11.2 innings pitched. He isn't going to scare the veteran hitters of hitters of the Yankees who are striking out as a team less than 20% vs. right handed pitching. Both players have struggled in the early going but have upside in this matchup and should be considered for GPP formats.
Consider - Carlos Santana
Early Slate
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.74
He has done a fine job in the leadoff spot for the Brewers early in the 2016 season with a .346 wOBA which is over 25 points higher than league average. While he lacks the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, he has power(3 HR) and has scored 11 runs while adding 11 RBI. The Brewers have the luxury of throwing eight right handed bats at Santiago on Wednesday with Villar and Walsh being switch hitters. Santiago has struggled against right handers giving up a .304 wOBA against while giving up five long balls and walking eight. He is a safe play in any format on his own and a great addition to a full Brewers stack.
Consider - Mike Trout, Jay Bruce
Evening Slate
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.29
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.96
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.6 DK - 10.74
I am not naturally a mean person so don't hold it against me Tyler Wilson fans. The Yankees are the ones that could be hurting your feelings tomorrow. I mean c'mon. He has a strikeout rate lower than five per nine innings and has given up a home run in each of his first two starts while not making into the 6th inning in either game. He pitches to contact and that could be trouble vs. the Yankees outfielders who all hit left handed(Beltran is a switch hitter). Wilson has given up a staggering .338 wOBA to left handed bats this season. Gardner and Ellsbury hit at the top of the lineup and both come with stolen base upside. Beltran normally hits 6th in the lineup and has more power upside than the other two. All make great plays on their own or as a part of a Yankee stack.
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.63 DK - 9.84
This is by far my favorite game to target in the evening slate. The Yankees have all been mentioned but don't forget about the O's here. They face C.C. Sabathia who continues to decline with age seeing his K rate drop to the 6% mark while losing his control(4.64 BB/9). Jones is a player you want to target when he is playing at home as the splits are pretty staggering. Over the past three years at home he is hitting .277 at home vs .240 on the road.
Consider - Giancarlo Stanton, Preston Tucker
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View Comments
Anybody have cash game lineups for today?
So what stats specifically do you look at when picking players? You like the Brewers but the only players who have decent stats against Santiago are braun who isn't even a for sure start today and villar. Lucroy hasn't hit well pitchers similar to him and carter has taken him deep twice in 14 AB's. Looking a various projection scores they aren't even favorites to win today. I'm assuming that's because of the pitcher they're rolling out but I'm not really seeing the picks for brewers.
How about chatwood today for gpp? Before you laugh me outta the comments section he's actually been pretty decent away from coors albeit in 3 starts but all 3 quality starts including a rear end kicking of the cubbies only time he's really struggled is giving up cheap homers at coors am I wrong to consider him?
I play FD. Forr the afternoon only games I just wanted to note the weather looks bad for the Giants and Cincy game and also for Braves and Mets. I am going to steer clear of Matz and any of those teams. The Chicago Pittsburgh game is having some weather issues also but seeing how it's looking like scattered showers I am going to roster just Kris Bryant and hope the game plays. With that said, unless you can afford King Felix or Strausburg, you are kind of in a pinch as Lester, Nicasio, and Matz are all huge gambles due to weather. I personally am going to gamble on a gut feeling today and take Chatwood. Colorado is due for a win vs the Padres. Vargas has a .87 ERA but that number won't last all season. With that said I also stacked a complete OF of Colorado hitters and stacked C,1,2,SS of Brewers. At 3rd I took Kris Bryant.
I like your thinking Bentley either go big with a lineup full of Rockies or go home I'll be using a similar strategy except focusing on the Mil/Laa game good luck today
@ryan We do not look at BvP stats are the sample sizes are just not big enough to draw projectable conclusions from. Santiago is giving up a ton of home runs and the Brewers have guys who can get on base at the top of the lineup and power right handed bats who can drive them in. Our picks are based off the projection system for the most part and it uses a wide variety of stats to come up with the projection(will have to let Doug elaborate deeper on the stats). Hope that helps.
@ Mike - I don't think you are crazy for considering Chatwood in GPP. He should be fairly low owned and is a great price in a pitchers park. The Padres are also the worst team when looking at team wOBA(.275) against right handed pitching. Great call my man!
Thanks Chris that's pretty much what I was thinking all the factors you mentioned appreciate it
Didn't think the lack of Carter in lineup would change your brewers projections that drastically
Actually Carter in think they've changed their lineup 3 times already