Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/4/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

We've got a true split slate today, with seven early games and eight more tonight. That'll create plenty of opportunities for action and some sketchy weather situations only ramps up the intrigue.

Two games on the early slate are in danger, with high chances of rain for the Giants-Reds and the Braves-Mets. That could wipe out one of the day's most tempting spot for hitters (San Fran at Cincy) and one of the best pitching matchups (Steven Matz vs. Atlanta's thump-less offense).

It's a little clearer tonight, but there's a strong chance the Detroit-Cleveland game could be delayed or postponed, so keep an eye on that for the late slate. And if you're playing the all-day slate, it might be best to just avoid all three games.

Personnel

• The Giants will be giving Matt Duffy and Buster Posey the day off, and Joe Panik is not quite ready to return. Their replacements (Connor Gillaspie, Trevor Brown and Kelby Tomlinson) aren't super interesting at the bottom of the order, but Brandon Crawford will move up to the five spot if you're feeling lucky enough to brave the weather risk.
• David Wright is getting the day off for the Mets. He'll be replaced by Wilmer Flores, who is hitting seventh.
• Billy Hamilton is out today after injuring his thumb last night. Tyler Holt is playing CF for the Reds and batting second.
• Zack Cozart is back at the top of the Reds order after missing a couple of days with a knee issue.
• Jason Heyward will sit for the third straight game as he deals with a wrist injury. Ben Zobrist will man RF, opening up a spot for 2B Tommy LaStella, who is hitting second for the Cubs.
• Mike Moustakas wasn't in the Royals starting lineup last night due to a thumb injury, but he did deliver a two-run, pinch-hit single.
• Alex Rodriguez exited Tuesday's game and will undergo an MRI on his hamstring.
• Carlos Gomez returned to the Astros' lineup last night and went 2-for-3.
• Domingo Santana was back atop the Brewers' order last night after missing a game due to a shoulder issue.

Tournament Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays
How steady is your hand? That's the question a lot of DFSers will have to answer for themselves today after the Blue Jays nearly got goose egged last night in what was predicted to be an offensive bonanza. And it was ... for Justin Smoak. Nobody else in the lineup returned value. Such is baseball. So here we are again with one of the most loaded lineups in baseball facing off against a meatballer. Tonight's victim-in-waiting is Colby Lewis, a fly-ball pitcher with a sub-par K rate and a lifetime xFIP of 4.36. Despite the firepower in the heart of the order, Toronto has been a pretty middle-of-the-road offense through the first month of the season. If that scares you off from another nice matchup tonight, it can be understood. Our recommendation, however, is to trust the long-term numbers and run this stack back in at least a few of your tournament lineups.

Houston Astros
The Astros are in a similar situation tonight, squaring off against Phil Hughes. Minute Maid Park isn't quite as welcoming to hitters as the Rogers Centre, but it does boost home run upside, and Hughes is a better pitcher than Lewis, but he gives up loads of fly balls, too. That could be a problem against Houston, which has the power throughout the lineup to put a couple of those in the seats. You'll have to pay up a bit for the safest bets for production (Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa), but their costs aren't prohibitive. Some of the lower-tier lefties (Preston Tucker and Luis Valbuena) also come with nice upside for the price.

Note: We highlight a few more stacks to target here.

Sneaky Pitcher

Mike Leake

We wrote him up in last night's picks column and we're doubling down today—mostly due to a lack of attractive under-the-radar options. If you're playing the all-day slate, Drew Smyly might qualify here, as his price yet doesn't match his excellent production, but he'll probably be a popular choice on the late slate, where he's the No. 2 pitcher on the board behind Jose Fernandez. Meanwhile, Leake should be a nice contrarian play. We're definitely angling for a win here on FanDuel or using him as a SP2 on DraftKings, but a soft matchup against the Phillies in a good pitcher's park means he's squarely in play at bottom-of-the-barrel prices.

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Manny Machado

Maybe you've noticed, but Manny Machado is really freaking good at baseball. Following up a year in which he hit 35 bombs, stole 20 bases and put up a .861 OPS, the 23-year-old is on a pace to be even better in 2016. Through 113 PAs this season, he's rocking a .451 wOBA, .311 ISO and a 1.067 OPS. Sure some of that is BABIP-related, but we're looking at one of the elite players in the game and he's not really priced that way, coming in as the fourth-most expensive 3B on both of the major sites. Also of note: CC Sabathia is not good. He might be able to keep the Baltimore lefties in check (maybe), but Machado is improving against southpaws and is a great play in all formats tonight.

Derek Dietrich

The Miami infielder has established a reputation as a masher against right-handed pitching, and he's taking that tendency to extremes in 2016. The sample size is tiny, but it's tough to ignore a .495 wOBA, a .351 ISO and a 1.181 OPS—especially when taken in conjunction with last year's very nice .368 wOBA, .229 ISO and .864 OPS against righties. Now consider that Rubby de la Rosa can't get lefties out and that Dietrich is coming cheap, and you've got a great way to save some salary.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!