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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/03/2016
Nick Rodriguez

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/3/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.

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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.

Pitching Targets

Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 12100 DK 12100
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @PIT
FD - 42.41 DK - 23.32
Our top cash-game play of the day is Jake Arrieta. He was dominant in 2015, and already has a no-hitter under his belt in 2016. Since 2015, Arrieta has been lights out with a 2.42 FIP (2nd in MLB), 26.8 K% (8th in MLB) and a 0.85 WHIP (T-1st in MLB). Not only has he been able to fan hitters and allow less than one walk/hit per inning, but he also owns a stellar 56.1 GB% (5th in MLB). This shows his ability to keep the ball low in the strike zone and force a lot of groundballs, which limits damage. The matchup isn't the prettiest for Arrieta, as he will be going up against the Pirates, but he will still do his thing and is the top cash-play game of the day.
DFSR 705x90
Matt MooreMatt Moore FD 7600 DK 8600
Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @TB
FD - 27.24 DK - 13.74
Matt Moore is one of my top GPP pitchers on today's slate. Sure, he is going up against the Dodgers who scare a ton of people with their lineup, but they have struggled against southpaws this season. They own a .291 wOBA (24th in MLB) and 78 wRC+ (26th in MLB). They haven't been able to get much going offensvily against southpaws, and they face a good one in Matt Moore. Moore has had a nice start to 2016. He has been fanning a ton of hitters, as he owns a 27.1 K%. He is showing great command in his pitches, and is also showcasing the control he has in all of his pitches. He owns a 5.4 BB% and his K-BB% is all the way at 21.7%. Just for a little comparison -- Jake Arrieta's K-BB% is at 17.1%. Moore has had a nice start to 2016 and I don't see the Dodgers slowing him down. Pitching at spacious Tropicana Field will help him out as well.
Marco EstradaMarco Estrada FD 8100 DK 6500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TOR
FD - 28.79 DK - 14.33
I personally would only use Marco Estrada in a tournament on FanDuel, but he is one of my top plays on DraftKings. He has a beautiful price tag at $6,500. You can pair him up with Jake Arrieta and still be able to afford some of those bats you love. Marco Estrada is quietly having a nice start to 2016. He owns a 2.91 FIP (league average is 3.20) and a 24.3 K%. He will be going up against the Texas Rangers today, who are in the middle of the pack against right-handed pitching. They own a .312 wOBA (16th in MLB), 94 wRC+ (17th in MLB) and .141 ISO (22nd in MLB). Marco Estrada should get run support from the Blue Jays, as they will be going up against a left-handed pitcher in Martin Perez, so go ahead and get some exposure to Estrada (especially on DraftKings).
Jeff SamardzijaJeff Samardzija FD 8700 DK 8200
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 34.1 DK - 18.19
Jeff Samardzija will be going up against the Reds tonight, and our projection system has him as the top PTS/$ pitcher. Although, the Reds put a beating on Johnny Cueto last night, their offense has been inconsistent on the year, so I wouldn't worry too much about that show they put on for Reds' fans.
The Reds have struggled against right-handed pitching this season. They own a .140 ISO (23rd in MLB), 68 wRC+ (28th in MLB) and .285 wOBA (27th in MLB). They have not been able to hit for much power or get runners in scoring position against right-handed pitching, so go ahead and get some exposure to Samardzija. He has one of the top matchups of the night and our projection system likes him. He is a tournament only play for me, with guys like Harvey and Arrieta taking the mound today.

image sources

  • Jake Arrieta: (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

6 Visitor Comments

  1. Not liking Matt Harvey today against ATL? I think it looks good for him with a -207 and o/u of 7.

  2. The optimizer still doesn’t show the Det/Cle games at 610p

  3. @Matt

    I like Harvey, but I focused on one cash-game pitcher and three lower owned pitchers I like for tournaments.

    And it could be because the game starts at 6:10 ET and it’s not part of the main slate. I’m not sure though.

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