Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
We've got a chance of rain in a few locations tonight, especially Baltimore and Chicago, so keep a close eye on the Yankees-Orioles and Red Sox-White Sox. But as of Tuesday morning, it looks like all 14 games on the main slate are in play.
Personnel
Toronto Blue Jays
This one is automatic. Outside of Coors Field, hitting venues don't come much better than the Rogers Centre, and few teams are better equipped to mash a soft lefty than the Blue Jays. We're expecting to see high ownership rates on Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarancion and Troy Tulowitzki, which isn't ideal for tournaments. Then again, the matchup is so nice, they're going to be tough to fade.
San Francisco Giants
What the Giants lack in outright sluggers, they more than make up for in lineup depth. With solid options throughout the order, they rank among the National League's best in wOBA and wRC+, and they strike out less than any team in the majors other than the Angels (yeah, the Angels). Regardless of which Cincinnati hurler gets the call, we think virtually every bat in the San Francisco order is in play tonight, as the Great American Ballpark adds significant home run upside.
He's not the sexiest name on the board, but he can get the job done—especially in a matchup at home against the Phillies. St. Louis is a very solid pitcher's park, and the Phils don't have the kind of lineup we would expect to overcome that disadvantage. They rank near the bottom of the league in wRC+ and team wOBA and strike out a little more than league average against right-handed pitching. Wacha isn't a big-time K guy, but he's worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts, and the Cards are a -165 favorite, which gives him nice potential to grab a W today. We'd like to see a little more savings, but we think he can exceed his middle-of-the-road price tag.
He's slumping right now, going 0 for his last 17. That's the bad news. The good news is that he's coming at an extreme discount on most sites, and he's in a great spot to break out against lefty Martin Perez in one of the majors' best venues for hitters. Perez owns a 4.96 xFIP this season and will be facing a Blue Jays lineup loaded with right-handed sluggers. Offense is expected, and Encarnacion should be right in the middle of it, hitting in his customary cleanup spot. His strikeout rate is up this year, but projection systems are calling for regression soon, and Perez doesn't strike people out anyway. And with Encarnacion's patient approach and home run upside, he makes a strong play in all formats.
Walker is raking this season and there's not much in the peripheral stats to suggest he'll be cooling off soon. The torrid home run pace might not last, but even so it looks like the 30-year-old could be on his way to a career year for power numbers. The good thing about Walker is we don't necessarily need home runs to meet value. He's always been at his best from the left side of the plate, and Braves starter Matt Wisler has been terrible against left-handed hitting through 25 big-league appearances. The Mets are built to take advantage, and Walker should have ample run-producing opportunities. We'd like him more if he were to creep up on the order, but hitting from the six hole hasn't dinged his value so far this season and there's no reason to believe it will start tonight.
NOTE: On FanDuel, strongly consider Brandon Crawford. His price and sub-prime spot in the order makes him tougher to play on DraftKings, but we think he's well worth the $2,800 price on FD.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
Still not seeing the Cle/Det game on the optimizer for the early slate. Pretty sure that it was there earlier.
The link to "Last nights picks" shows todays picks.
That's because today's picks were posted last night (or technically early am this morning).
Looking at the Rays lineup today.Could be a sneaky stack Thoughts?
Yes, a Rays stack could be really sneaky for tonight. Scott Kazmir was horrible to start the year, and has only had 1 quality start. Maybe the Rays can get something going on early.
Warning against stacking Mets: I have done it a few times this season in juicy matchups and they will get you some points, but it seems they do it in one inning early and then just take it easy. It is almost like their coach tells them not to run up the score.
Gotta love baseball. As Anthony O warned, the Mets are currently getting no-hit by Wisler and the Braves. And Mallex Smith hits a HR off of Harvey in the same game. A guy who hit one HR all of 2015 in MiLB. Unbelievable.