Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/3/16 Playoffs

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

Analysis
These two teams played about the ugliest 7 game series that I can recall in recent league memory, and now we get to watch another hard fought slog in round 2. Huzzah! The Raptors and Heat each played a bottom 5 PACE this season. They also played a top 10 defensive efficiency each.

The game has a 191 O/U. Barf.

That said, this game should be a much more even contest than the Trail Blazers/Warriors, and there are still some values to be had.

Top Plays
Joe Johnson - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
DeMarre Carroll - FD 4400 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.23 DK Proj. Pts - 25.08
The cheap small forwards. Both are set to play tons of minutes in game 1, and while Carroll makes for a very bad match-up for Johnson, pickings are slim on a 2 game slate with a game featuring two grind-it-out half court teams. I'm particularly intrigued by Carroll's huge game 7 minutes against Indiana. If he's really ready to go, he could have serious upside - he was a $6,000 player when getting these minutes in the past.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7500 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.12 DK Proj. Pts - 38.71
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7400 DK 7000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 35.83 DK Proj. Pts - 36.76
The expensive two guards, coming off of two very different series. Wade was steady before turning in a fantasy dud in admittedly fewer minutes in game 7. DeRozan was all over the place, but put the Raptors on his shoulders as they closed out the Pacers. They'll likely be defending one another here, and my guess is that both will save some energy for the offensive end. I far prefer Thompson at similar prices, below, but wouldn't mind either. Really, it's a too-rich day for shooting guards, with the 2s from all 4 teams going as viable fantasy options.

Also considered: The point guards! Dragic was great in an increased role in game 7, and with Josh Richardson still a bit banged up (whatever the Heat claim), I suspect he'll be in for more looks in game 1 here. As for Lowry, he looks a little expensive for me given the other options out there, but I won't rule him out depending on how the money shakes out when I start running the lineup optimizer.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
After a game one gutting, the already seemingly too-high line of -7.5 jumped to -9.5 in the Warriors' favor. And the scary thing is, Golden State really could have played better. Combining a devastating 55-40 rebounding advantage with their typical sharp-shooting, the game was a bigger blowout than the 12 point difference suggests.

All that said, Portland certainly could have been better as well. Lillard, McCollum, and Plumlee all seemed too small for the stage, but after getting their asses handed to them, I personally think they'll be playing a little looser in this one. Given that everyone basically got their minutes in game 1 in what could wind up being the most lopsided game of the series, I suspect that will be the case here as well.

In addition, this game will have an over/under 20 points higher than the Raps/Heat game. That is a TON. Whatever fears you might have, it's going to be tough not to have significant exposure to these teams any time they meet for the rest of the series.

Top Golden State Value Plays
The Starters.

Golden State went "big," at least for them - Bogut was on pace to play the far top end of his minutes, Harrison Barnes led the team in minutes for the first time all season, and they essentially ran the offense through Draymond Green. Here's the order that I'd prioritize them today, prices willing:

Draymond Green - FD 9300 DK 10600
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.74 DK Proj. Pts - 47.2
The Blazers front court does a handful of things well, but they simply have no one that that handle Green's particular offensive game. Plumlee can't handle the pick and roll well enough, and Davis is too much of an offensive liability to stay on the court. Kerr is going to make the Blazers prove they can stop Green before trying anything else. He's tougher to play on DK.

Klay Thompson - FD 8000 DK 8700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 43.99 DK Proj. Pts - 47.77
28 shots, and it would have been more if the game had stayed close. Klay is going to have to put up huge totals with Steph missing, even with Green playing phenomenally. I'll play him everywhere.

Harrison Barnes - FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.72 DK Proj. Pts - 25.37
Do you trust the huge minutes increase in game 1? I do. I see no reason why Barnes would have played extra minutes if that isn't simply the game plan here. He's a versatile piece that can handle several of the Portland wings defensively, and the Dubs have to love his contributions on the boards in the big game 1 win.

Andrew Bogut - FD 4500 DK 4000
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.13 DK Proj. Pts - 24.56
Shaun Livingston - FD 4600 DK 5400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.33 DK Proj. Pts - 22.5
Cheaper, but still high floor from where I'm sitting. Bogut destroyed Plumlee on both ends in game 1, and since the Trail Blazers arguably would prefer to play small, I think he'll get even more minutes in game 2. As for Livingston, I thought he'd play more minutes in game one, but he was still serviceable on these prices in game 1, and as far as I'm concerned - that was his minutes floor.

The Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard - FD 8400 DK 8900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 45.48 DK Proj. Pts - 49.08
C.J. McCollum - FD 7000 DK 6600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Lillard was good in game 1 in spite of shooting 8 for 26 from the field, and McCollum was generally awful. Still, there's a series price and opportunity mismatch here. The Blazers made it abundantly clear that they're not going down with these two on the bench, given that they played 40+ minutes each in a game that was essentially out of reach going into the fourth. I like Lillard a lot better because of McCollum's tough match-up (Thompson), but I don't mind either.

Also considered: Mason Plumlee, though you'll be getting him as a separation play today. He played about as badly as humanly possible in game 1, but it scares me that he lost his minutes. Still, he'll need to be a heck of a lot better if the Trail Blazers are to compete on the boards, and I suspect he'll at least get a chance to.

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