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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/2/16
Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.
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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.
Pitching Targets
Johnny Cueto FD 10600 DK 10800
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 36.75 DK - 19.93
I know he was in our MLB baseball picks article, but he is the clear No.1 pitcher on tonight's slate! Johnny Cueto has been outstanding to start the 2016 season, and I don't see the Cincinnati Reds slowing him down tonight. Cueto looks like the Cueto we were all accustomed to seeing when he was in a Reds' uniform. He has a 3.4 BB% (6th in MLB), which shows the control he has in his pitches. Not only has Cueto shown us that he has control of his pitches, but has also shown us his ability to punch guys out, as he owns a 22.6 K%. Speaking of strikeouts -- the Reds have a 22.2 K% (10th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers, in 2016. I see Cueto dominating the Reds tonight and is a great play in all formats!
Jonathan Gray FD 5500 DK 0
Opponent - SD (Shields) Park - @SD
FD - 32.25 DK - 16.7
I know you don't hear us touting Colorado's rotation everyday, but we love Jonathan Gray tonight! He will be going up against the Padres, who have really struggled to get things going offensively. They have a .115 ISO (29th in MLB) , .272 wOBA (29th in MLB) and 67 wRC+ (28th in MLB) against right-handed pitching this season. Gray is also a guy that has a lot of upside, as he has a 27.3 K% (highest on the slate). And to make things better for Gray, the Padres strikeout a ton, as they own a 26.0 K% (third highest in MLB) against right-handed pitching. I would not be surprised if Gray finished with the most fantasy points on the night. He is an excellent play in tournaments.
James Shields FD 7800 DK 7800
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @SD
FD - 31.89 DK - 17.34
I just talked about Gray, but I will now talk about his opponent James Shields. Shields has not been the same pitcher the past couple of seasons, but he is in a nice spot to deliver a quality start. He will be going up against the Rockies tonight, which might scare some people, but little do they know that they are not the same team when they are on the road. There numbers drop in all statistical categories when they are away from friendliest park to hitters (Coors Field). This game will be taking place in spacious Petco Park, so this will help James Shields. He has a career 22.0 K%, so the upside is there for Shields, so don't worry about his 16.0 K% to start the year. He is a tournament play for me, but is price is tempting as a cash option (on sites where you can roster two pitchers).
Jimmy Nelson FD 7100 DK 7500
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @MIL
FD - 26.01 DK - 12.72
Warning: Jimmy Nelson is not the safest pitcher to target, but our projection system suggests that he has tremendous upside. He has started off the year with a 3.16 ERA to go along with a 52.8 GB%. He is keeping the ball low in the strikezone so far this season, which suggest why his ERA is where it is. He will be going up against the Angels, who have struggled offensively in the early going of the season. They have a .297 wOBA (22nd in MLB) and .366 SLG (26th in MLB). Nelson does not have a high K% as it only sits at 19.7% in his career, but he could deliver another quality start for the Brewers. The price is right for him as well.
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image sources
- Johnny Cueto: (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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Thoughts on wainwright against philly?
I really like him, but he is still a risky play because of price and you can’t disregard his start thus far.
Yeah there’s been a drop in velocity and he’s throwing the FB less in favor of the change. I feel like both aren’t great signs.
I like his chances to pick up the W, but he just has not been that good this season. I would use him Only on 2 pitcher sites.
I’m torn, Shields or Gray for a cash game tonight on DK? I already plan on rostering Cueto.
neither, roll hendricks, volquez or pay up twice and pair with kuechel.
Go Gray! Better matchup
Is Gray a good cash game option or tourney only?
FD Tournament DK either or. That price is just way too good and has a nice matchup
Wouldn’t Gray be too risky in cash? I really don’t know much about him…
He has a great matchup in a great park. The stuff is real and the Padres are brutal against righties. He’s so cheap on FD that I think it’s worth the risk.
A note on Gray also. This line opened at SD -130 Col +125. It’s swung all the way to COL -112. I know because I raced to get something in on COL at that number and last night it was already down to COL +105 which I didn’t find as enticing though I thought long and hard.
This is for a meaningless baseball game in May. This kind of massive line adjustment means sharp money was pounding COL all night and day. That’s a real thing and our system had sussed some of that out.
vegas still has padres as a top runs team tonight, but smart money in rockies cause they match up with shields so well!
Are you saying the run line favors Padres or that Pads are top run expectancy on the slate?
I agree with Doug
Whoa. Gray 50% cash game play on FD. Didn’t see that one coming. We weren’t the only outfit on that projection I suppose.
When everyone is sure on on Cueto…. he gets smashed!!
I’m leaving his picture up there to punish myself
And i have the padres as the 8th overall in run exp. at 4.1 What did you guys have?
Chasing the beat downs I took Saturday evening and on today’s main slate on late night plays with Gray looks grim already. He is in big trouble in the 1st inning. That’s what I get for chasing- time to slow it down… Hopefully he goes on a K terror and sneaks out a win.