San Antonio Spurs' Tony Parker (9) and LaMarcus Aldridge (12) talk on the court during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Utah Jazz Tuesday, April 5, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Spurs won 88-86. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Happy Monday, y'all! It's another small slate today, and, get used to it - that's going to be the case for basically the remainder of the postseason. Just 1.1 rounds into this year's playoffs, and it's already been the craziest I've seen in my daily fantasy basketball career. It looked like we were headed toward some sanity in round 2, only to have the Spurs blow the doors off the Thunder in game 1. What will game 2 hold? Let's hold our breath and venture an educated guess.
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Well, game 1 didn't exactly go as many predicted it would. Instead of a hard-fought game where the Thunder couldn't quite get it done, the Spurs ran them off the court. In spite of Kevin Durant looking reasonable against Kawhi Leonard (the big question going into the series), the Thunder got destroyed on account of an awful night for Russell Westbrook and an historic night from Lamarcus Aldridge. So what to make of game 2?
Well, Vegas still only likes the Spurs as a 7.5 point favorite - the very same spread as the Cavs/Hawks game. So, if we're not going to modify the Cavs/Hawks projections for blowout possibilities (and we're not), this looks like a situation to keep a steady hand with our projections for opportunity in this series. We've made some modifications, of course - I can't imagine the Spurs are going to let OKC off the Aldridge hook without making them prove they can get a stop first - but otherwise these picks are going to basically be the same as when Doug wrote them up a few days ago, with a few modifications.
Top Value Plays
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 44.95 DK Proj. Pts - 48.04
To get the bad news out of the way to start - neither would have paid their gaudy price tags in game 1, even if you prorated out their performance to the minutes we anticipate they'll get in game 2. I'm actually a little bit concerned about Durant - he's had trouble with Kawhi all season, and while this should turn around to some degree, it's going to be pretty difficult for him to flex huge upside here. Westbrook, on the other hand, should be a different story. He's also had his difficulties against the Spurs this year, but with Durant being swarmed by the Sharktopus, he's really got to step it up here. He'll have a mix of willing defenders on him throughout the game, but this just has all the makings of a game where he decides that the team just isn't going to get blown out unless he goes balls to the wall. I'm a buyer.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 38.46 DK Proj. Pts - 39.22
He completely embarrassed the Thunder bigs in game 1, putting up 38 points on just 23 shots in 30 minutes. The Spurs were relentless, dumping him the ball repeatedly, and the Thunder simply couldn't come up with an answer. A word of warning - he'll be something of a chalk play here, and he's now pretty expensive for what we came to expect from him during the regular season. Still, it's hard to imagine Pop not at least forcing the Thunder to answer the opening gambit of rolling Aldridge possession after possession before pivoting to something else. I like him, even at these prices.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 22.14 DK Proj. Pts - 22.75
In spite of the blowout, Parker played more minutes than we projected for him in game 1. Since it seems like Pop would be unlikely to play him extra minutes in a game that's out of hand, I think it's fair to speculate that Parker is in line for more minutes than most expect going forward. At this point this looks like a price and opportunity mismatch, and if the Spurs do pivot for game 2, I expect Parker to be heavily involved here. This play carries some risk, but it will likely be what amounts to an off-beat play in a 2 game slate.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 28.97
In a similar vein to Parker, Ibaka might have played high 30s minutes had the game stayed close, and he was the Thunder's most effective offensive weapon. Ibaka seems to have run bad on the boards, here - he's put up big rebounding totals against the Spurs earlier this season - and a bounceback on the boards and similar offensive production could make him a phenomenal play today.
The cheap guys I'd play: Manu Ginobili, Enes Kanter, Dion Waiters.
Analysis
This game will be perceived by many as the safer of the two games today, but Vegas pegs them as dead even. I will say that, anecdotally, the Cavs seem a lot less equipped for big blowouts than the Spurs to. To that end, I don't blame you if you believe this game to be the safer of the two on the slate today.
So what do we do with it from a fantasy perspective? Well, the Cavs certainly seem to be the more predictable of the two teams. They rolled with their core group throughout the Detroit series, even in games that were decided by fairly large margins. The Hawks, on the other hand, were all over the damned place. They had some insane performances (Millsap) and some incredible duds (Millsap, and many others). The Hawks/Celtics series was a bizarre back and forth of haymakers and heartbreakers, and I think Cleveland's more deliberate style will let the Hawks settle into more of a groove here. Cleveland is also totally unlike the Celtics in that they don't have the depth to spice things up much. Or maybe I'm just talking myself into this one being safe and boring - I think game 1 will tell us a lot.
Top Value Plays
Every starter on the Cavs
Which is admittedly weird, since the Hawks have the 2nd highest defensive efficiency rating this season, and played essentially a league average pace.
So you know what the big driver is? Simply put: minutes. The Cavs have consolidated minutes toward their starting 5 in a way that no other team in the playoffs has done thus far, and it's turned each of them into a value. If I had to rank them, I'd do it thusly:
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.77 DK Proj. Pts - 41.56
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 53.51 DK Proj. Pts - 55.67
Both have been solid if unspectacular on these prices so far in the playoffs, but both are playing huge minutes right now, and both are offensive weapons the Cavs won't be able to ignore if they want to hang with the NBA's second best defense. Vegas likes Cleveland in this game, and their scoring is going to have to come from somewhere - I say it's going to be Love and James.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.52 DK Proj. Pts - 25.05
You heard me! You're basically deciding between Thompson and Horford at the center position if you want anything resembling safety, and Thompson should be relied upon for huge minutes with the twin towers that the Hawks throw out there. He might out-minute Love in this game - how's that for a bold prediction? Now, his performance is so erratic that it's hard to trust him completely, but that's why he's cheap, and I really like to spend up elsewhere today. So, I probably will.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.84 DK Proj. Pts - 26.95
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.59 DK Proj. Pts - 40.75
Our lineup optimizer is a hair less bullish on the Cavs backcourt than their front-court, but let's be clear - it really loves both of these two as well. Smith was actually the Cavs most consistent fantasy player from a value perspective in round 1, and Kyrie bookended the Detroit series with 2 very solid fantasy performances. Both have nice match-ups in Teague/Schroder and Korver, and I wouldn't be disappointed to get either in there today.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 42.07 DK Proj. Pts - 43.68
He draws the best defensive match-up of any Hawk in round one today - the defenseless Kevin Love. It's the really nice thing about the Hawks, actually - with Horford down there to keep defenses honest, Millsap will almost certainly have to draw Love, and the Hawks are well positioned to take advantage of this mismatch. Millsap does carry significant risk, though. In spite of various Hawks battling nagging injuries in round 1, he wedged in a handful of crappy performances around his game 4 monster. I'm prepared for any Millsap to show up in this game, but I'm betting that coach Bud starts this one out by attacking Love and trying to get him off the floor.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 20.98 DK Proj. Pts - 24.35
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 18.23 DK Proj. Pts - 19.13
The optimizer has a strong preference for a stars and scrubs approach on Monday, and these two are slotting into many lineups. Korver's case is easy to make - JR Smith is the 2nd weakest link in Cleveland's defensive chain, and the Hawks' sharpshooter was terrific in each of the last 5 games of the Boston series. Schroder's case is one born simply of upside. He wrested a lot of minutes from Teague during round 1, and put up 25 fantasy points in the decisive game 7 on a minimum salary. He's also very erratic. Not sure if you can trust him for double-ups, but it does seem like the Hawks would like to play him 20 minutes off the bench each game.
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View Comments
I never disagreed with the optimizer like I do for this one. Just for one player. I can't do Tristan Thompson. Just can't. Not with kanter looking so tasty for just 200$ more. I get all the reasoning. And hell, I'm the optimizer's biggest fan. (And this is really the only pick I won't follow). I looked at my 33 lineups for the 3$gpp and couldn't stand seeing Thompson in 16 lineups on my quick player replace. So I swapped him for kanter in 11 of them. Now with kanter at 14 lineups and Thompson at 4 I feel much better. But that's just me. And again. Rolling hard with dfsr these last couple months. 32nd out of 110,00 on Friday. Overall cashed 57/99 lineups this weekend. My fav (and riskiest) lineup is:
Irving
Parker
Korver
D green
James
Baze
Aldridge
Love
Horford
I say this is riskiest because I fade Westbrook durant and Leonard. And I essentially roll with james and millsap, a repeat Aldridge performance and guys with super high ceilings/ low floors. I only have a couple iterations of that lineup. The lineup below is more along the lines of what I am rolling with. Following advice from dfsr on Cleveland minus Tristan (though why bite the hand that feeds you, he's still in 4 lineups). I think kanter will remain low owned and is always a few situations away from busting open a big stat line. I think okc knows it needs offense from people not named Russell or Kevin. If okc has a chance, one of the two goes off and then someone low owned will step up huge. So I stayed away from having too many Westbrook durant lineups. I think I have lebron love in 75% of my lineups and lebron love Irving in 50%. Loooove the insight from dfsr on tony Parker and loaded him about 65% of my lineups.
My fav kanter lineup:
Westbrook
Parker
Ginobli
D green
James
Baze
Millsap
Love
Kanter
See, I disagree.. DONT PUT KANTER ANYWHERE.. THAT'S A MESS. He's young, inexperienced, and in game 1 he was an embarrassment.r
ge
I Rocked em' yesterday with Dragic at my point, Deng, Whiteside, Paul George, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson--- and a'few others.. finished 11th out of 3000(something or another)
The point is: I know my shit.
so here you go ----> tomorrow's lineup:
Parker
Irving
Green
sorry, not enough room
Parker
Irving
Green
Manu
Baze
James
Love
Horford(Your best bet) ---- $$$$$
I feel like Green is to big of a hit and miss, especially with
J.R guarding Krover, I see 3's for days from Krover on a weak SG night. Schroeder, Krover, Base, Love, Horford, Irving, Aldridge, Parker.
For me Schroeder is huge. He takes Teagues minutes, ATL uses him as a 6 man and seem set playing him 20+.
Take the 6000-8000 guys and run
I just want to thanks you,ben knapple. Your Westbrook,Parker,Ginobli,D green,James,Baze,Millsap,Love,kanter line up helped me win a free ticket into a baseball tournament on fanduel. So again....Thank you very much!
Note to add: looking back, I have Aldridge in 8/33 lineups. So I'm somewhat fading him. For the very reasons listed above by james. I think Aldridge will have a ridiculous high ownership level, his price went up a bit, and I think the thunder know that pop will throw that right back in their face. Or hell pivot. Either way I think Aldridge is more likely contained and his value can be replaced elsewhere. For a gpp, I'm betting on base to come close and therefor allowing me to spend on millsap/Westbrook/love. I think the thunder manage to bring this closer to a 95-90 final.
sidenote:
Kyle Korver has been red hot lately. ... and he's very cheap($4100) ------- BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THE MATCH-UP.
J.R. Smith on Korver as opposed to Evan Turner and the Celtics poor defense... NO Avery Bradley freed up Korver some productivity. J.R. Smith gets the best of him here. ---- NOW GET OUT THERE AND WIN SOME MONEY!! =) $$$$$$$$$$
ben knapple. We should definitely start helping each other out everyday on here. (With picks and such.) ;)
I've been winning alot of money - and it be nice to have another viewpoint on dfs seections. ---->
I just want to say that if OKC keeps this game within single digits, it will be on the back of big scoring nights from Westbrook and/or Durant. It most certainly won't be because of defense. This is to say that a 95-90 final score seems unlikely to me. If OKC keeps it close, both teams are going over 100.
Clay, I think otherwise on Korver. In he previous series we had KCP who was solid throughout and Korver is an even better 3pt shooter. I don't think smith is as good as a defender as you're making out to be. He is lazy and doesn't offer many other stats other that points. That's just my two cents I'm rolling with green and Korver in my lineup.
Man thanks for advice yesterday I finally won. If I would have used derozen over wade I would have tied for first but I won $300 with my last $3 dollars. Thanks!!!!!
To Clay. What picks would you say for fanduel today?
Thanks to everyone for the insights. I've been on a losing streak lately and last night lost again :(.
Now, if I can play with the optimizer and listen to all of you commenting here maybe I can win something. I appreciate the insights from you guys above (Ben and Clay) to compliment original strategies from the DFSR crew. Keep the comments going and let's all win something.
Yeah - JR doesn't play D
Korver is close to a chalk for me
Yea- Keep in mind all my picks are for fanduel gpp's. So I'm always putting guys with a tad bit more risk out there than the optimizer will.
No Leonard ?!! He will crush his price if he get his full
amount of minutes. I think the game stay close in
game 2. Sorry Lebron, I'm taking Leonard over you
today.
Taking leonard over lebron is asking for trouble. Just my .02 The okc/sa game is wildly too unpredictable.
Don't get me wrong imma have a lineup with Lebron too
Lmao