Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/1/16

 

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We are coming off a split-slate day where the pitching options were very tough to find. That is certainly not the case today as it feels a bit like Opening Day. We have a ton of aces on the mound in great match ups and a few gas cans in poor match ups. Make sure to check out our 3 other MLB articles as they will touch on weather news, stacks and more pitching options to consider. Let's get to it!

Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

 

PITCHER

Clayton Kershaw FD 12600 DK 13900
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @LAD
FD - 47.54 DK - 27.41

Well, the pitchers on this slate are insane. We have 7 true aces and a few fringe guys. However, none of them really compare to Kershaw in terms of match up, talent and consistency. Kershaw will be taking on the Padres in a game with a 6 1/2 over/under and the Dodgers -300! Thats puts the Padres run total around 2.0 and I think Vegas is spot on. There is nobody in this lineup and a ton of enticing strikeout bats in Melvin Upton, Jemile Weeks, Adam Rosales and Drew Pomeranz. I find it very hard to imagine a scenario where Kershaw doesn't absolutely dominate tonight. I expect him to be way under owned as well as many people will feel uncomfortable paying up after he had a rough start last time out. Don't fall into that trap. Make sure he's in your cash game lineup and in at least 60% of your tournament lineups.

Chris Sale FD 11000 DK 11900
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 43.49 DK - 25.25

If we are talking a GPP spot, here it is. The Orioles are a team that will either go out and strikeout 18 times and have a completely miserable night or go out and hit 7 home runs. With Sale taking the mound here, I am expecting a miserable day. Sale ha as much upside as anyone with a strikeout % of 32.5 in 2015, the second best in the league behind only Kershaw. Sale had a ridiculous 12 starts last year where he accounted for double digit strikeouts and a big enough performance to bring you to the top of a tournament. While I will be playing Kershaw at this price point in cash games, Sale is going to be in a ton of tournaments.

Danny Salazar FD 8900 DK 10800
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 36.05 DK - 19.96

Salazar is going to be extremely under-owned today with all of the aces on the mound. While I will not be touching Salazar in cash games, he is a fantastic tournament play. The Phillies have shown their downside with strikeouts with guys like Ryan Howard, Odubel Herrera, David Lough and Peter Bourjos in the lineup. Sure, Salazar hasn't gone more than 7 innings so far this year and hasn't shown any sign of consistency. However, that is exactly who he is. All we need is for him to have one of his crazy starts where he goes 8 innings and strikes out 10. Also, playing Salazar will let you pay up for a few more bats which will differentiate your lineup a ton in GPP's . While this play is as far as it gets from safe, it has a ton of upside.
Consider - Rich Hill, Madison Bumgarner

CATCHER

Victor Martinez FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.15
Jarrod Saltalamacchia FD 2800 DK 3200
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.53 DK - 7.3

Saltalamacchia and V-Mart have both been swinging the bat extremely well with a combined 11 home runs on the season. I expect both of these guys to keep up this level of performance throughout the year and both are extremely great plays tonight. Ricky Nolasco is not the pitcher he once was and in fact, he is horrible. In 2014, Nolasco gave up a .396 wOBA and 11 homers to lefties with a horrible 13% strikeout rate. If you force me to pick between the two, I will go with Salty in tournaments and Martinez in cash. That is due to Salty being a lot more reliant on a home run to produce.

Consider - Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco

 

FIRST BASE

Miguel Cabrera FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.88

Miguel Cabrera enters this game in the middle of a hot streak. In the past 6 games, Miggy has 11 hits and 3 home runs. As mentioned directly above, Nolasco is a horrible pitcher and is someone we should be looking to target. Cabrera has hit righties very well over the course of his career with an absurd .404 wOBA and 36% hard contact rate. However, it is going to be very tough to pay up for Cabrera if you go with Kershaw. Let's take a look at some guys that are much more affordable.

Byung-ho Park FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.26 DK - 10.29

Byung-ho Park has finally started mashing the ball over the past 10 games. Pelfrey is a pitcher that I love to target as he gives up a ton of home runs and hard hit balls. Byung-ho Park will likely end the year with one of the highest exit velocities, which fares well against a guy like Pelfrey. Pelfrey is a right hander that gave up a .344 wOBA to righties last year. Byung-ho Park has a great shot at hitting one out today as long as he is in the lineup. I do prefer him in tournaments as he is very power reliant.

Justin Bour FD 2100 DK 3600
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.94 DK - 9.89

All aboard the Bour train! Bour and the Marlins are taking on Wily Peralta and the Brewers here in a game with 2 of the weakest pitchers on the slate. In 2015, Wily Peralta exhibited a putrid .376 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate to lefties. Bour on the other hand exhibited very positive splits against righties with a .359 wOBA and hit all 23 of his home runs against them. Bour will be taking a bigger role on offense with Dee Gordon suspended and will look to show off his power today.

Consider - Adam Lind, Anthony Rizzo

 

SECOND BASE

Robinson Cano FD 3900 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.82

Robinson Cano has obliterated righties to start the year with a league leading .483 wOBA and .765 SLG. While those numbers certainly aren't sustainable, the old Yankee Robbie Cano just might be back. The Mariners beat writers have been saying all off-season and spring that he is looking like his old self and the numbers have backed it up. Ian Kennedy is a guy you definitely want to target with lefties as he gave up 18 home runs and a .356 wOBA to lefties in 2015. With his age getting up into the mid 30's, we can only expect decline from there. Cano is a great play in all formats as he is far from power reliant.

Ben Zobrist FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.29

Zobrist is one of my favorite players in the league to roster as he has the ability to score in so many different ways. Zobrist has an above average walk rate, below average strikeout rate and is in a lineup that is constantly producing runs. While Julio Teheran is a solid pitcher, there is no doubt that he struggles against lefties. With a career wOBA of .350 and a HR/FB at 13.5%, there is no disputing that. Zobrist has historically hit righties better than southpaws and is in a great spot to get involved today.

Consider - Brian Dozier, Colin Walsh (if leading off)

SHORTSTOP

Jean Segura FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.97 DK - 8.8

Jean Segura and the entire Diamondbacks team disappointed last night which will likely keep their ownership down today. However, they are in another terrific spot here against Chad Bettis, a right handed pitcher who can't seem to get anyone out. While Jean Segura is not a great hitter against righties or lefties, he gives you some power upside and a ton of stolen base upside against righties. Chad Bettis was bad at holding runners last season with an average stretch of 1.2 seconds.

Jonathan Villar FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.05 DK - 8.99

Villar will likely be hitting in the 2 spot as he has for the past couple weeks. Tom Koehler is a below average right hander that struggles at 2 things; getting lefties out and holding runners. Koehler gave up a .332 wOBA and a 36.2% hard contact rate to lefties in 2015. While that doesn't sound too bad, an xFIP of 4.5 and a HR/FD rate 16% suggest bad things to come. Villar gives you a ton of upside on the base paths for a very cheap price. This is they type of guy that helps you win a tournament with an expensive ace.

Consider - Eduardo Escobar

THIRD BASE

Eugenio Suarez FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.63 DK - 6.98

Jeff Locke nonchalantly dominated in Coors Field last time out. That is a prime example of just how much variance is in the game of baseball. Locke is not a good pitcher and is someone we should be targeting throughout the year. Eugenio Suarez is a very good hitter and proved that with a .354 wOBA against lefties in 2015. While this lineup isn't typically great for righty power, Suarez has a tendency to go oppo-field with his line drives as shown by his 38% oppo/center line drive rate. I hope people are scared off of Suarez due to Locke having 1 good game and I am able to get Suarez at a low ownership %.

Derek Dietrich FD 2100 DK 3600
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.97 DK - 10.01

Derek Dietrich is going to be a guy we roster a lot for the next 78 games which is when Dee Gordon comes back from suspension. Dietrich will be leading off against Wily Peralta. As mentioned above, Peralta is a guy who struggles against lefties and keeping the ball in play. While Dietrich isn't the strongest guy in the majors, he has proven his ability to hit for power with a 37% hard hit rate against righties. Dietrich is a righty specialist and hit righties to the tune of a .368 wOBA in 2015. Dietrich is a great play in both tournaments and cash games as he is not reliant on any 1 stat.

Consider - Kyle Seager, Chris Coghlan

OUTFIELD

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.65
Charlie Blackmon FD 4000 DK 3900
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.69 DK - 9.34

Blackmon and CarGo will be taking on Shelby Miller in a park not much worse than Coors Field in Chase Field. Shelby Miller is a pitcher that I am going to target left handed hitters against all season long. Miller is due for a ton of negative regression after having a season last year where he got extremely lucky. Miller gave up an absurdly bad 40% flyball rate and an even worse 35% hard contact rate against lefties in 2015. The regressions has already begun this year and it is full speed ahead. Both Gonzalez and Blackmon hit righties extremely well last season with +.360 wOBA's. These guys give you a speed + power combo with a ton of upside.

David Peralta FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.45 DK - 9.14

David Peralta has struggled to start this year and has not gotten too many favorable match ups thus far. He certainly has one today against Chad Bettis in Chase Field. As mentioned above, Chase Field is the second best hitters ballpark in the league and somewhere Peralta has hit the ball very well. Chad Bettis has struggled against lefties throughout his career with a .345 wOBA and 26% line drive rate. Peralta is a hitter that lives on line drives with a 24% line dive rate against righties over his career. Peralta and the Diamondbacks are in a great spot here against Chad Bettis and the Rockies.

Miguel Sano FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @MIN
FD - 14.5 DK - 10.98

Sano has once again fell into a power slump and he will once again snap out of it very soon. Pelfrey is the perfect guy to do just that against. In 2015, Pelfrey gave up a combined .344 wOBA with a 4.67 xFIP. I expect Pelfrey to decline further this year with him exiting his prime age. Miguel Sano is a guy who has proven his worth against righties with a .397 wOBA and 14 home runs in 2015. I am going to be all in on Sano tonight and will look for him to put one into the seats.

Jason Heyward FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.43 DK - 10.15
Dexter Fowler FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.4 DK - 8.49

Here is a another combo of outfielders that are in an amazing spot against a bad righty. As mentioned, Teheran has struggled mightily against lefties with a career .350 wOBA and 13.5 HR/FB rate. Both Heyward and Fowler are very good against righties with Heyward holding a career .364 wOBA and Fowler a .336. If you have been watching the Cubs games you would know both of these guys are seeing the ball spectacularly. I am a huge fan of this offense as a tournament stack and these are 2 guys you have to include in that.

Consider - Domingo Santana, Christian Yelich, Adam Eaton

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY MLB!

And Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!