Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/1/16 Playoffs

A quick note on today's article - you might notice (right away) that this is essentially Doug's article from last night. There's a good reason for this, since he had to write up two days worth of picks all at once. This is going to be a very similar article - in fact, I'm leaving his stuff and just adding some updates based on news that has come in since. Enjoy!

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Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors

Analysis
The Pacers took care of business on Friday night extending this series back to Toronto and forcing a game seven. For what's been a seemingly closely contested series, only one of the games has been decided by less than double digit points. That's a bit surprising considering both of these squads are so damn good on defense. In this deciding game I think you see a concentration of minutes from both teams as they each try to close this thing out.

Toronto opens as a -6.5 favorite given the home court though the Pacers were able to steal game one there. I still think there is a decent amount of value in this series stemming mostly from the understanding we (I think) have from the way both coaches have run rotations up until this point. Look, this hasn't been the most exciting series to watch considering the pace of play throughout. But this game seven should live up in front of a solid crowd and the fact that it's do or die for both.

Top Value Plays
Paul George - FD 9500 DK 10100
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.52 DK Proj. Pts - 47.25
I'm not saying he's going to play all 48 minutes, but I'm not saying he's NOT going to play all 48 minutes. Got me? While this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, I think you got a sense of how Vogel wants to do things from game six. PG13 played 40 minutes and that didn't include the last three in the fourth when the game was in hand. Indiana needs him desperately on both the offense and defense end (the former especially) and I think his floor is as high as any player on this short slate of games. He's not necessarily a must play because there are a couple of other good small forward options here. But if you think he runs minutes in the mid 40's then it's awfully tough to not roster him.

George Hill - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.98
Still represents somewhat of a bargain considering his minutes and playoff pricing. He's averaged a 16/4/3 over the last four games and that's plenty to get it done at his salary levels. The Pacers won't run him crazy minutes (I don't think) but I do believe he has upside with a 34 minute projection. If Indiana gets caught in have to keep pace with scoring then I do think you see Hill out there for longer stretches.

Myles Turner - FD 5700 DK 5500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 28.76 DK Proj. Pts - 29.91
Speaking of scoring, Turner was inserted into the starting lineup to provide just that. He's there to ease the burden on PG and provide some offensive game in the low post. He can drift around the perimeter as well which does open things for the Pacers. He's averaged a 15/9 in the last two games and makes for a solid play at an already weak PF position.

Kyle Lowry - FD 7900 DK 7800
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 38.73 DK Proj. Pts - 41.12
Ugh, he's playing hurt. That's for certain. Lowry's struggled mightily from the field in this series and it's clear the arm/ hand issues are effecting his game. He's shooting right around 30% over the last five games, way down from his season average. That doesn't typically just happen without an underlying issue. But the Raptors are playing him the same amount of minutes and his shot volume remains intact. I dinged him in the projections to account for the possibility (near certainty) of an injury and he's still coming out as a pts/$ play because of the lack of price movement.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 4500 DK 4200
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.2 DK Proj. Pts - 25.03
I think you see more minutes from him this game because he'll be needed to cover George. I read a tweet (and I couldn't remember from who so I apologize) that George's scoring numbers were greatly impacted (negatively) when Carroll was on the court last game. I doubt that goes unnoticed by the Toronto staff and you see him running with George at all times.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat

Analysis
Another game seven here and both teams will likely pull out all of the stops. The Heat took down game six on the road in a must win game with D Wade leading the charge late to put the game away. The series shifts back to Miami for the decider and I suspect it stays close throughout. The last three games in this series have been knock'em down affairs, grind out-style with scoring coming at a premium. I suspect this last one is more of the same.

The Hornets could be playing a man down again with Batum re-aggravating his foot in game six and not returning after only 15 minutes of court time. That could/ should open up a bunch of minutes on the Charlotte side and you could see guys like Walker and Lee run close to the whole game. It wouldn't shock me at all to see that happen.

Top Value Plays
*Note: As of right now we are projecting minutes under the assumption Batum sits this one out. If that's the case then basically the whole Hornet starting five becomes value plays on the minutes alone.

Update: Josh Richardson is now questionable, based on the shoulder injury he sustained at the end of game 6. He's been handling a lot of the defensive load for the Heat, tracking Kemba Walker, and his absence would leave a 30 minute hole to fill in a must win game. Unfortunately, the Heat are short on options. His absence would mean a lot more minutes for Goran Dragic.

Kemba Walker - FD 8300 DK 8400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 41.75 DK Proj. Pts - 43.51
Would you be shocked to see him run something like 44 minutes in this one? Me neither. He's been pushing up to that point already and the Hornets will need all of the scoring they can get. He was amazing in game six putting up a 37/5/3 and single-handedly keeping Charlotte in the game late. I'm not pencilling him in for a similar scoring line, but high 20's shot attempts is on the table for sure.

Courtney Lee - FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 22.29 DK Proj. Pts - 23.91
Marvin Williams - FD 4900 DK 4800
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 28.58 DK Proj. Pts - 30.83
Frank Kaminsky - FD 3800 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 26.24 DK Proj. Pts - 27.99
All three ran huge minutes in game six and you could see the same thing if Batum were to sit again. It makes sense for them to shorten their rotations even though Kaminsky is somewhat of a defensive liability in rotations. The problem with Lee and Kaminsky is though the minutes should be there, the shots might not. They combined for seven total looks in 76 minutes on Friday. That's awful and tough to stomach in DFS for sure. Marvin meanwhile went 0-7 from the field, bringing his own level of DFS pain. I get being hesitant on all three, but there is a chance you get value simply because none of likely to repeat such terrible performances and others will be down on them from looking at the game six box score.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7800 DK 8000
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.04 DK Proj. Pts - 37.61
Coach Spo ran him the most minutes he's seen in game six and I think you can expect something similar in another high leverage game. I was hesitant about bumping Wade's minutes going into game six and that proved a mistake. He took 20 shots and finished with a 23/6/4 line while also chucking in some blocks and steals.

Joe Johnson - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 24.05 DK Proj. Pts - 26.18
A value mostly on the minutes expectation and the idea that he'll contribute just enough across the stat line while still coming on the cheaper side of things.

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
It says a lot about the Warriors (or at least the public view of them) that they open this game one as -7.5 favorites without the best player in the league. Or maybe it's an indictment on the Trailblazers. I'm not sure, but either way Golden State comes in as the game and series favorite. Portland continues it's improbable season run by getting to the second round of the Western Conference playoffs. If you had that predicted during the pre-season then congrats, you're the only one. Of course they got a massive bit of help with the Clippers playing without their two best players for the last two games of the series. That can't be ignored. And Portland will struggle to keep pace with Golden State.

But it will at least be interesting without Steph on the court. The Warriors can play without him for sure as they change their style rather dramatically. But it still works as evidences with their dismantling of the Rockets at the end of the series.

Top Value Plays
Draymond Green - FD 9000 DK 10200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.74 DK Proj. Pts - 47.2
Klay Thompson - FD 7800 DK 8200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 43.99 DK Proj. Pts - 47.77
Both see a roughly 10-15% usage rate bump with Steph off of the court this season and become bigger parts of the offense without the latter. We gotten a decent look at Steph-less Warrior basketball and it's involved Klay averaging about 26 points per game. He'll log heavy minutes as long as the game is close and should see shot attempts in the high teens at the minimum. Draymond meanwhile comes in as a good points/$ play at a PF position screaming for someone to play.

Shaun Livingston - FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.29 DK Proj. Pts - 26.47
Definitely the biggest fantasy beneficiary of the Steph injury though I really don't need to tell you that. He changes the Warrior style of play as he's a completely different player than Curry (duh) but provides matchup issues of his own as he can actually move down low against smaller defensive matchups. Not a must play, but damn close.

Damian Lillard - FD 8300 DK 8600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 44.37 DK Proj. Pts - 47.89
Man there is so much point guard value on this slate and it's by far the deepest position. That's the only reason Dame isn't a must play. Point guard is where you'll make or break your lineups as each game has a guy or two you should strongly consider. He's the cog of their offense and should be staring down the barrel at 40 minutes at least. The Blazers probably won't have to play as frenetically to keep pace as if Curry were playing, but Golden State can still ball and the Blazers need Lillard as much as any team needs any player.

Mason Plumlee - FD 6300 DK 6900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 33.39 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88
Predicting the Blazer minutes outside of the guard position is a disaster. They play matchup ball a ton and go with what's working in the moment. That makes guys like Plumlee risky because he could just as easily see minutes in the mid 20's as mid 30's. But center is a weaker position and I do think they use his size a little more here considering they might not need to play as much catchup.

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