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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/1/16 Playoffs
A quick note on today's article - you might notice (right away) that this is essentially Doug's article from last night. There's a good reason for this, since he had to write up two days worth of picks all at once. This is going to be a very similar article - in fact, I'm leaving his stuff and just adding some updates based on news that has come in since. Enjoy!
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Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Analysis
The Pacers took care of business on Friday night extending this series back to Toronto and forcing a game seven. For what's been a seemingly closely contested series, only one of the games has been decided by less than double digit points. That's a bit surprising considering both of these squads are so damn good on defense. In this deciding game I think you see a concentration of minutes from both teams as they each try to close this thing out.
Toronto opens as a -6.5 favorite given the home court though the Pacers were able to steal game one there. I still think there is a decent amount of value in this series stemming mostly from the understanding we (I think) have from the way both coaches have run rotations up until this point. Look, this hasn't been the most exciting series to watch considering the pace of play throughout. But this game seven should live up in front of a solid crowd and the fact that it's do or die for both.
Top Value Plays
Paul George - FD 9500 DK 10100
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.52 DK Proj. Pts - 47.25
I'm not saying he's going to play all 48 minutes, but I'm not saying he's NOT going to play all 48 minutes. Got me? While this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, I think you got a sense of how Vogel wants to do things from game six. PG13 played 40 minutes and that didn't include the last three in the fourth when the game was in hand. Indiana needs him desperately on both the offense and defense end (the former especially) and I think his floor is as high as any player on this short slate of games. He's not necessarily a must play because there are a couple of other good small forward options here. But if you think he runs minutes in the mid 40's then it's awfully tough to not roster him.
George Hill - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.98
Still represents somewhat of a bargain considering his minutes and playoff pricing. He's averaged a 16/4/3 over the last four games and that's plenty to get it done at his salary levels. The Pacers won't run him crazy minutes (I don't think) but I do believe he has upside with a 34 minute projection. If Indiana gets caught in have to keep pace with scoring then I do think you see Hill out there for longer stretches.
Myles Turner - FD 5700 DK 5500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 28.76 DK Proj. Pts - 29.91
Speaking of scoring, Turner was inserted into the starting lineup to provide just that. He's there to ease the burden on PG and provide some offensive game in the low post. He can drift around the perimeter as well which does open things for the Pacers. He's averaged a 15/9 in the last two games and makes for a solid play at an already weak PF position.
Kyle Lowry - FD 7900 DK 7800
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 38.73 DK Proj. Pts - 41.12
Ugh, he's playing hurt. That's for certain. Lowry's struggled mightily from the field in this series and it's clear the arm/ hand issues are effecting his game. He's shooting right around 30% over the last five games, way down from his season average. That doesn't typically just happen without an underlying issue. But the Raptors are playing him the same amount of minutes and his shot volume remains intact. I dinged him in the projections to account for the possibility (near certainty) of an injury and he's still coming out as a pts/$ play because of the lack of price movement.
DeMarre Carroll - FD 4500 DK 4200
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.2 DK Proj. Pts - 25.03
I think you see more minutes from him this game because he'll be needed to cover George. I read a tweet (and I couldn't remember from who so I apologize) that George's scoring numbers were greatly impacted (negatively) when Carroll was on the court last game. I doubt that goes unnoticed by the Toronto staff and you see him running with George at all times.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat
Analysis
Another game seven here and both teams will likely pull out all of the stops. The Heat took down game six on the road in a must win game with D Wade leading the charge late to put the game away. The series shifts back to Miami for the decider and I suspect it stays close throughout. The last three games in this series have been knock'em down affairs, grind out-style with scoring coming at a premium. I suspect this last one is more of the same.
The Hornets could be playing a man down again with Batum re-aggravating his foot in game six and not returning after only 15 minutes of court time. That could/ should open up a bunch of minutes on the Charlotte side and you could see guys like Walker and Lee run close to the whole game. It wouldn't shock me at all to see that happen.
Top Value Plays
*Note: As of right now we are projecting minutes under the assumption Batum sits this one out. If that's the case then basically the whole Hornet starting five becomes value plays on the minutes alone.
Update: Josh Richardson is now questionable, based on the shoulder injury he sustained at the end of game 6. He's been handling a lot of the defensive load for the Heat, tracking Kemba Walker, and his absence would leave a 30 minute hole to fill in a must win game. Unfortunately, the Heat are short on options. His absence would mean a lot more minutes for Goran Dragic.
Kemba Walker - FD 8300 DK 8400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 41.75 DK Proj. Pts - 43.51
Would you be shocked to see him run something like 44 minutes in this one? Me neither. He's been pushing up to that point already and the Hornets will need all of the scoring they can get. He was amazing in game six putting up a 37/5/3 and single-handedly keeping Charlotte in the game late. I'm not pencilling him in for a similar scoring line, but high 20's shot attempts is on the table for sure.
Courtney Lee - FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 22.29 DK Proj. Pts - 23.91
Marvin Williams - FD 4900 DK 4800
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 28.58 DK Proj. Pts - 30.83
Frank Kaminsky - FD 3800 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 26.24 DK Proj. Pts - 27.99
All three ran huge minutes in game six and you could see the same thing if Batum were to sit again. It makes sense for them to shorten their rotations even though Kaminsky is somewhat of a defensive liability in rotations. The problem with Lee and Kaminsky is though the minutes should be there, the shots might not. They combined for seven total looks in 76 minutes on Friday. That's awful and tough to stomach in DFS for sure. Marvin meanwhile went 0-7 from the field, bringing his own level of DFS pain. I get being hesitant on all three, but there is a chance you get value simply because none of likely to repeat such terrible performances and others will be down on them from looking at the game six box score.
Dwyane Wade - FD 7800 DK 8000
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.04 DK Proj. Pts - 37.61
Coach Spo ran him the most minutes he's seen in game six and I think you can expect something similar in another high leverage game. I was hesitant about bumping Wade's minutes going into game six and that proved a mistake. He took 20 shots and finished with a 23/6/4 line while also chucking in some blocks and steals.
Joe Johnson - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 24.05 DK Proj. Pts - 26.18
A value mostly on the minutes expectation and the idea that he'll contribute just enough across the stat line while still coming on the cheaper side of things.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Analysis
It says a lot about the Warriors (or at least the public view of them) that they open this game one as -7.5 favorites without the best player in the league. Or maybe it's an indictment on the Trailblazers. I'm not sure, but either way Golden State comes in as the game and series favorite. Portland continues it's improbable season run by getting to the second round of the Western Conference playoffs. If you had that predicted during the pre-season then congrats, you're the only one. Of course they got a massive bit of help with the Clippers playing without their two best players for the last two games of the series. That can't be ignored. And Portland will struggle to keep pace with Golden State.
But it will at least be interesting without Steph on the court. The Warriors can play without him for sure as they change their style rather dramatically. But it still works as evidences with their dismantling of the Rockets at the end of the series.
Top Value Plays
Draymond Green - FD 9000 DK 10200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.74 DK Proj. Pts - 47.2
Klay Thompson - FD 7800 DK 8200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 43.99 DK Proj. Pts - 47.77
Both see a roughly 10-15% usage rate bump with Steph off of the court this season and become bigger parts of the offense without the latter. We gotten a decent look at Steph-less Warrior basketball and it's involved Klay averaging about 26 points per game. He'll log heavy minutes as long as the game is close and should see shot attempts in the high teens at the minimum. Draymond meanwhile comes in as a good points/$ play at a PF position screaming for someone to play.
Shaun Livingston - FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.29 DK Proj. Pts - 26.47
Definitely the biggest fantasy beneficiary of the Steph injury though I really don't need to tell you that. He changes the Warrior style of play as he's a completely different player than Curry (duh) but provides matchup issues of his own as he can actually move down low against smaller defensive matchups. Not a must play, but damn close.
Damian Lillard - FD 8300 DK 8600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 44.37 DK Proj. Pts - 47.89
Man there is so much point guard value on this slate and it's by far the deepest position. That's the only reason Dame isn't a must play. Point guard is where you'll make or break your lineups as each game has a guy or two you should strongly consider. He's the cog of their offense and should be staring down the barrel at 40 minutes at least. The Blazers probably won't have to play as frenetically to keep pace as if Curry were playing, but Golden State can still ball and the Blazers need Lillard as much as any team needs any player.
Mason Plumlee - FD 6300 DK 6900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 33.39 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88
Predicting the Blazer minutes outside of the guard position is a disaster. They play matchup ball a ton and go with what's working in the moment. That makes guys like Plumlee risky because he could just as easily see minutes in the mid 20's as mid 30's. But center is a weaker position and I do think they use his size a little more here considering they might not need to play as much catchup.
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image sources
- Paul George, Reggie Jackson: (AP Photo/R Brent Smith)
48 Visitor Comments
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I need a winning lineup. Been playing fan duel since football season and can win shi.. I take lots of notes but they don’t help. I need some cash! Someone help.
I was in the same boat as you when I found this site in February. I started cashing here and there just from reading the articles and taking some advice from the comments section, so I can definitely say that this is probably the best “free” source for advice, but….(get ready for an unsolicited plug) I didn’t start multiplying my bank roll until I ponied up for the pro package. I play anywhere from $5-$30/ day and it has paid for itself several times over. Hell, I haven’t deposited into my fanduel account since. These guys know their shit and they are always on here answering questions and giving advice.
LOL….don’t we all? But listen, it’s not an exact science, the best you can do is take the advice given here, couple it with some logic, and a dash of ‘gut feeling’ (i.e. instinct).
You pretty much have to exhaust all sources of info that you can tolerate. This is fun, but make no mistake, you have to put in some WORK too, I know I’ll not telling you anything you aren’t already aware of.
For me at least, it’s not just about putting in some ‘optimal LU’ that a computer spits out. That’s a great foundation, but after that you have to do some tweaking as you see fit.
My current formula consists of about 75% science (computer), 15% personal logic, and 10% gut feeling (but even that is based on some level of predictability).
I haven’t won BIG money yet, but I feel it coming, I really do. And lately I have noticed that I’m winning more than losing, def a step in the right direction. I think the more you play the more this stuff makes sense, it starts to become second nature to at least be more competitive.
Good luck man, don’t be discouraged, keep the betting on the low side until you hit your groove.
I agree completely, but I had no clue how to use the info that I had gathered or how to make a competitive line up until I actually saw it in action. Make no mistake about it, I put in at least an hour a day in research, and most days more than that, but I plug the optimal line up into atleast one double up and a $1 gpp every day, and it has been a great ” hedge” against my other less logical and sometimes completely wreck less plays. Some days are better than others, and some days are down right awful, but over the long term, the system works as long as you make it work with you and not for you. Also, anyone who hasn’t yet read Doug’s article on bankroll management should! Over the last week or two it has definitely helped me keep a leash on the impulsive wagering that I (and I assume many others) tend to fall into.
u probably play alot of tournys,try playing cash games! like 50/50’s or double ups! theres more stratgey then luck ilike in tournys, ya the $ is WAY better but atleast if u keep on doubling up you’ll make some $ or better yet,if u double down 15x you’ll make a nice nite!!!
I like Al Jefferson. He has averaged 5.4 value and been very consistent. He was on the winning DK team Friday night. Will definitely play him in a couple lineups.
Me too. I’m playing him in probably half my line ups today.
I’m hesitant on Walker in spite of his big minutes. He’s been much worse on the road. I love Lilliard. He has really excelled vs GS this season.
Me too on Kemba. But even though Lillard should be a solid play tonight, I’m fading the BIG PG’s totally, and going with Hill and Livingston. They should both hit their targets, and even though that’ll drop some production at the position, I’ll have ample $$$ to spend up at the rest.
It’s a bit risky, but hey, you gotta have some risk in there to take down the top prizes.
thanks!! i will purchase pack alsi
I think I’m in love with Biyombo today… you heard it here first 🙂
I think Biyombo might be a big surprise tonight. But I also think Valanciunas could go for 40 FP. Decisions, decisions….
I need help with finishing my lineup should I go Klay & Andre Iguodala or C.J McCullin and Miles Turner?
I would go Klay and Iggy, both in a high paced game. But it’s close….
Cj and mt game seven minutes will always be higher then a game one imo
Happy NBA May! Here is your premier FantasyAces lineup for today. Interesting fade is D. Green. While he is projected at a nice bump in usage without Chef Curry on the scene Iggy is actually a better points/dollar play as he is essentially the backup point guard when Chef isn’t cooking. The system really likes Old Al today too…he’s projecting to top 30 min and is a good pt/$ value on Aces at only 4,600. Good luck as always!
And if you haven’t yet played on Fantasy Aces please support those that support you and sign up using this link:
http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
G K.Thompson 32.71 5,800.00
G D.Wade 32.91 5,750.00
G S.Livingston 17.33 4,200.00
F P.George 40.41 6,200.00
F L.Deng 29.81 4,750.00
F A.Iguodala 17.28 4,550.00
C M.Plumlee 25.79 4,750.00
Util M.Turner 23.35 4,400.00
Util A.Jefferson 24.79 4,600.00
Good Morning all DFSR readers. I have been an avid reader of DFSR for a long time and really enjoy the daily articles and updates. Also enjoy the banter in the visitor section.
TRUST THEWALRUS82. Being a NYer I have been limited to only play on fantasy aces and had slowed down my bankroll because of lack of success on that site. That is till I started seeing TheWalrus82 posting his projections for fantasy aces. I have been absolutely killing it since, winning GPP’s and cashing almost 70% of my NBA lineups in the last few weeks. Sign up using his link and give it a shot, it has to be better than throwing your money away on fan duel and draft kings
I heard u guys give the best advice but every time I post questions I haven’t got a response can I get a lil help today? Lol
These guys are fairly response Ashley, but there are a lot of questions out there, they can’t always get to all of them.
Keep posting them though, I’m sure you will get some direct advice before too long. BTW……what’s your question, maybe I can help?
What questions you got Ashley?
I have to find that one hidden treasure that will seperate my lineup from all the others. Splitting winnings is ok but not with a thousand others. Who is the punt that will surprise? Thats the key….
Alright greg & ryan my last question is what value pg to with in gpp Shawn livingston , jeremey lin, or George hill?
Livingston. They game is projected to be higher scoring than the others. But I think Hill will be owned less, so he could be a good contrarian play.
Who’s thinking ashley is really a John and is brilliant using a girls name to get a response ? Jk I kid I kid
And is Aminu a good play at small foward should I take him Joe johnson or marvin wiliams who is in the spot for the bettbetter play and has the biggest game
The higher curling is probably Williams (although he’s a PF). The higher floor is probably Johnson. So it depends on how much risk you can stomach.
Ceiling. Damn you autocorrect.
they are all iffy to be honest if it was my money on the table id go joe johnson tho he plays well at home and seems to give the team a lift at certain points in the game
Rolling out a Lowry Derozan Johnson Turner Biyombo Walker Iggy Lillard Draftkings tourney lineup thoughts?
Lol Nicholas ganni
Having trouble choosing between harkless or Carroll in the late slate. Thoughts?
I’m in the same boat. It’s a tough call. I want to trust Carroll more, if only because we haven’t seen portland and gsw play each other yet so i don’t know what Stotts will do with his rotations. but Harkless will be in a higher scoring game and his minutes have been pretty secure around 30 lately. So he could be the play. Hard to tell. I’ll end up with most of my money on Carroll, but i’m going to have Harkless in at least one lineup somewhere.
What you guys think FANDUEL LILLARD WALKER WADE LIN GEORGE AMINU KAMINSKY TURNER PLUMLEE
Thanks for all the advice guys
Gpp at the foward spot should I take Miles Turner, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, or Aminu?
For fanduel 50/50s you guys think fading the big PGs (walker, lillard) is too risky ? I have G-Hill, Livingston, Thompson, wade, PG13, Iggy, Myles turner, draymond and plumlee. Thoughts?
Ashley…a lot of it depends what site you are playing on because the pricing and positional differences cause fluctuations in your lineup. To generally answer your question:
Miles Turner and Joe Johnson are safe
Marvin Williams and Aminu need their shots to fall
GPP Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams will be lowest owned
I am big on Miles Turner today as the Pacers seem willing to run him out there 30 plus minutes and he rebounds/blocks shots/and scores.
Messy Marvin shots fall every other game…so today he may be on….anyone really trusting him
All of the Charlotte picks were trash today. Dragic is destroying them single handedly the optimizer failed horribly with these picks for this slate
Yeah I mean no one in their right mind saw the Hornets losing by 33 today and playing arguably their worst game of the season. Nothing to be done about that.
no one in their right mind would of played 4 hornets
Lol agreed but that’s what the top lineup in there optimizer put out
Jefferson bomb, ouch!
Hoping my Dragic picks weight it out though
Game 7 in Miami. Charlotte going against a seasoned veteran Miami team with D-wade I think everyone saw that blowout coming a mile away. Wade may be old but he has multiple rings for a reason he knows what it takes to win these are the playoffs this is not the regular season. When I saw the optimal for today I thought your computer had a virus LBVS. Making winning lineups is a mathematical thing that’s fact but this is the playoffs and the human factor out ways that remember we’re betting on humans and how they will perform. In the playoffs the teams with good players and ice water in there veins is gonna always kill the young inexperienced Team that’s just fact. Human nature. Charlotte getting blown out was easily predictable.
Lol. Ok. I don’t think that’s true in any real sense. I saw no one prognosticate as such, no one comment on it, Vegas lines didn’t indicate. Incredibly easy to make the statement after the fact of course.
smh……………………just smh
Batum was the big reason they loss. Injured sit down and root on. How’s coach not use Lin primarily when he was the workhouse in those Ws.