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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/30/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/30/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

Potential weather issues

We are looking at 3 games here with weather concerns. The Braves @ Cubs and Reds @ Pirates looking the worst. The Braves @ Nationals game is not looking great but looks to have a bit more going for it than the other 2 games. I will make sure to update directly below if anything is confirmed prior to game start.

UPDATE - ATL @ CHI has been postponed. I will update further if I hear anything.

Wind in Minnesota

With the Detroit bats being some of my favorite on the day, this is quite disappointing. We are currently looking at 22 MPH winds blowing directly in from center. However, wind can change at the blink of an eye and is something that will need to be monitored up until game start.

The wind has improved and it now looks like it is blowing 15 MPH from left to right. Upgrade to hitters from previous status. DFSR 705x90

Tournament Stacks

Note - The Cubs were going to be listed here. I kept them off due to the weather concerns. If things happen to turn around, they are 2 of my favorite stacks.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have the honor of taking on the one and only J.A. Happ today. Happ is a very similar pitcher to John Danks as they are both horrible against righties and can't keep the ball in play. Over the past 2 years, Happ has a .327 wOBA against righties. However, his peripherals tell a different story. With an xFIP of 4.11 and a hard hit rate of 38%, that wOBA should be sitting somewhere around .370. While this Tampa lineup doesn't look imposing at first glance, they have few righties that have a ton of upside against lefties. Every single batter in this lineup is in play for me and if I were picking 5 I would go with Longoria, Forsythe, Jennings, Souza and Dickerson. Dickerson will likely see a + platoon advantage one Happ gets knocked out of the game.

Milwaukee Brewers

This is my favorite stack of the year. After disappointing the world yesterday,the Brewers are going to go off tonight. The Marlins will be trotting out one of my favorite pitchers to pick on, Wei-Yin Chen. In 2015, Chen gave up a .325 wOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to righties. Let's take a guess at who gave up the most home runs to righties last season. Yup, Wei-Yin Chen. The Brewers are going to likely throw out a lineup of 7 or 8 righties. My 5 favorite are Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Chris Carter, Aaron Hill and Jonathan Lucroy.

 

Sneaky Pitcher

Ross StriplingRoss Stripling FD 7900 DK 6300
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @LAD
FD - 29.11 DK - 14.82

Let me put a disclaimer here and say this is strictly for tournaments. For cash games, go with deGrom, Liriano and Ventura. However, Stripling is a bit interesting in tournaments. While Stripling, hasn't been great, he has been decent and his peripheral numbers are very good. With a high k% and an average BB%, Stripling has kept the damage to a minimum. While Matt Kemp is the guy that would regularly scare me off, Stripling has an excellent slider which is exactly what Kemp struggles with. With Stripling being so cheap, the Padres so bad and the slate lacking options, Stripling just may be worth a shot.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD 4500 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @ARI
FD - 15.1 DK - 11.8

Paul Goldschmidt is in a perfect spot here against a bad lefty at home in Chase Field. Chris Rusin is someone who I have no problem picking on ass he held a .358 wOBA against righties on the road last season. Goldschmidt absolutely obliterated left handed pitching last year to the tune of a .455 wOBA and an astounding .620 SLG. This ballpark rated as the second for right handed power last year and Goldschmidt certainly had no problem hitting home runs in Chase. Goldy is my pick for home run of the night.

Mike TroutMike Trout FD 4900 DK 5200
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TEX
FD - 15.1 DK - 11.77
Albert PujolsAlbert Pujols FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.25

Trout and Pujols have been a bit disappointing this year and Trout has seemed to be overshadowed by Bryce Harper. However, Trout is still the same guy that we jumped up and down to roster last year against a lefty. Derek Holland was atrocious against righties last season with a .368 wOBA and 10 home runs allowed in only 48 innings. Trout on the other hand challenged Goldy and held a .434 wOBA against southpaws. While Pujols certainly isn't the same guy he was 5 years ago, he hit 40 home runs last year and should get close to that number this year. I expect people to be off of the Angels with them letting everyone down last night. Trout and Pujols are great plays in all formats.

Domingo SantanaDomingo Santana FD 2600 DK 3200
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.97

Not sure what else I need to say here for the Brewers bats. I could of put Braun here as well but went with Santana as his price is just too good. This is a hitter that I expect to end up around $3500 very soon on FanDuel. I will keep rostering him against l=bad lefties until his price turns me away. Every Brewers bat is in play tonight and Santana is my favorite.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

image sources

  • Paul Goldschmidt: AP Photo/Matt York

26 Visitor Comments

    • Woops, I missed that. Projected lineups page I was looking at had him in there.

  1. yes he went on 15 day on thursday

  2. Hey what do u think of Eickhoff for tournaments.

  3. How is the weather in St Louis game

    • As of now it is looking like they should be able to get some of the game in at least

  4. Joey bats and Encarnacion in play today vs Chris archer or do we get the dominant archer today?

  5. Not for me. In looking at updated projections, I might actually go the other way and run Archer

  6. Ok thanks was having a difficult time deciding to go Duda at 1B and reddick for my last OF spot or switch to that mini Toronto stack but archer looked so nasty last start had me scared so I’m with you today

    • Yeah. Toronto K-ing a ton v RHP this season. Righty-heavy lineup and this is a pitcher’s park.

      • only ray i see rostering is Forsythe…that motha can hit!! If youve watched Longoria the dude is weak sauce and cant hit right now…babip my arse…he cant square up on one very well right now

  7. More I think about it more I wanna roll archer now too Toronto is a team he’s had a lot of success against (.150 average against him in 124 at bats) plus I’m from Tampa Florida so any chance or excuse to use some rays and I’m down

    • I see more value in Degram, but you can stack more Mets if you go with Archer.

    • In tournaments, I don’t mind it. In cash games, no way.

      • No love for Adams…batting fourth and has a price tag of 2K…will allow you to load up on an outfield mets stack

  8. Duda or Cabrera? With Duda I can pay up for Logan forsythe and get off dozier. I just have to much free time today. Lol

    • yes…the masses are going to flock to detroit after what happened yesterday…BUT that wind changes the hitters approach at the plate…pull hitters are now screwed which limits the damage Cabrera and the other guys around him could do if the wind wasnt affecting ball flight

  9. definitely avoiding archer! No way jose!!! degram all the way!

  10. How do you guys not use Pittsburgh lefties,righties,hell even the mascot is in play tonight! ..Have you seen Alfredo Simon’s last 3 games?

    Simon is a walking Gascan – Worst pitcher in the league…and I dont think its close

    Simon Says….Fade me

  11. I think a lot of people including myself would be all over the Pirates tonight, but looking at the weather radar does not bode well for this game getting played.

  12. The brewers suck. Pick Chen to win a ton of cash.

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