Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/29/16 Opening Round

Friday’s schedule is full of late-series elimination games. Charlotte will try to finish off the Heat at home, while the Blazers and Raptors will attempt to end their respective series on the road. Elimination games up the intensity even further and it will be interesting to see if the road teams can close out in front of hostile crowds. Game 6 at home down 3-2 amounts to a Game 7 for the host. Game 5 in all three series was tightly contested until the end (the Blazers pulled away early in the fourth quarter). If you add it all up, we should have a full slate of compelling contests. The real DFS narrative on Friday is much like Wednesday – there are (even) few(er) options to spend salary. The bargains are so good you pretty much have to play them, and the handful of upper-end players are likely to be widely owned as well. Much of the player analysis below centers on salary and math (and the lack of choices you’re left with).

Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.

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Toronto Raptors at Indianapolis Pacers

Analysis

This series has seen some stop-on-a-dime momentum switches. Before Game 5, the margin of victory in each contest was double digits. Two of those four victories were by the road team, so home court hasn’t been a decisive factor, nor have injuries played a role. I’m sure a lot of people anticipate another Raptors playoff choke, and our offshore friends have in fact given the Pacers roughly four points relative to their previous home lines. The Raptors switched up their rotations in Game 5, giving Luis Scola a DNP-CD, starting Patrick Patterson, and essentially giving more minutes to Bismack Biyombo. We’re anticipating something similar in Game 6. Game 5 also saw Myles Turner play much better in his second game in the starting lineup, and Paul George’s monstrous performance couldn’t pull off a win. There is not much to indicate unusual performances, and these picks reflect that.

Top Value Plays

Kyle Lowry - FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 40.95 DK Proj. Pts - 43.34

Lowry represents the best value by far at the higher end of the salary spectrum (unbelievably, you have to define that as $7k+ on Friday). He’s also the second-best PG option in Pts/$ terms on FD and DK. Absent salary constraints, you’d have a few options, but he’d still represent the best combination of value and spending opportunity. Counterintuitively, another thing in his favor is his lackluster performances in the previous two games. Recency bias suggests he’ll be less heavily owned than others in his price range, making Lowry almost the only (relatively) top-dollar semi-contrarian play. If you trust the projections (you should), you can run him over Damian Lillard for roster differentiation.

Paul George - FD 9400 DK 10000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 42.29 DK Proj. Pts - 44.89

By far the highest-priced player on the board, PG-13 isn’t projected for outstanding multiples on FD or DK. He’s under consideration (actually a must-play on FD) because of two things that aren’t there: other options at SF and places to spend. His floor isn’t great but tolerable, and he will be motivated to avoid elimination at home. As you’ll see below, you’re really going to have trouble allocating your full salary on Friday. Paul is one of the places you’re almost forced to go on FD.

George Hill - FD 4700 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.98

George Hill is a sneaky-good PG option on Friday. He has way over-performed for his price over the last three games, posting a 5.5x, 8x, and 6.5x. He’ll continue to get low-to-mid 30s minutes, and while his shot volume can vary from game to game, his peripherals (especially on DK where he’s rewarded for the 3) keep his floor high enough to avoid disaster on most nights. If you’re looking for a pivot of the Rivers/Lowry/Lillard trio, give Hill consideration. That’ll pretty much only apply for tournaments, as cash game lineup options are highly restricted (especially on FD).

Myles Turner - FD 5600 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.92 DK Proj. Pts - 29.03

I pointed out earlier that Turner stepped into the starting lineup in Game 4 of the series. He shot terribly from the field, leading to a lower-than-expected fantasy output, but his other stats were right in line with the last several games. He reverted to form in Game 5 and put up a 6x. Unless you think a guy who shot 50% on the season is likely to go 2-for-13 again, trust the production level and minutes. Myles is the top PF option on DK (where Jeff Green is a SF) and among the best on FD (where you need two, and after Green your only real alternative is stomaching Frank Kaminsky). Get him in your lineups.

Patrick Patterson - FD 3700 DK 3700
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 18.07 DK Proj. Pts - 20.01

2-Pat (my favorite nickname among many out there) is the low-cost play of the night. It’s hard calling him a punt with playoff pricing and relative spending opportunities, but that’s what he’d be in the regular season. His minutes didn’t go up with his starting gig, but his usage did. He promptly shot 30% from the field. That’s low even for him, and he also failed to put up his usual blocked shot per game. Another make from the field and a block and he’s easily returning value. Patterson is less pricey than Turner, making for a decent tourney pivot play on FD. On DK he’s a solid second choice and excellent opportunity for a positional change-up, again mainly for tourneys.

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

Analysis

This series did a 180 when it hit Charlotte. After cruising in the first two games at home, the Heat have dropped three straight and head into the Hive with some questions to answer. They’ve lost two consecutive tight games to a team without much playoff experience (the disparity between the teams is enormous), including a true choke job at home. Everyone expected the Heat to show up in crunch time. It’s really crunch time now for Miami, with their playoff lives on the line. I’m not entirely sure why Josh McRoberts saw so much run last time out, but I hope for Miami’s sake it was a Spoelstra brain cramp. As for Charlotte, Nic Batum returned, and Courtney Lee actually got to rest for more than six minutes. The rotations moved toward normal and Batum should play at least as many minutes as Game 5.

Top Value Plays

Hassan Whiteside - FD 8200 DK 8000
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 38.29 DK Proj. Pts - 38.94

I honestly didn’t know who to lead with for this game. Whiteside has a low floor but relatively high ceiling for his price. Those looking to spend should look at him (particularly on DK). Beyond that, I don’t have much to say here. There’s a less costly, high-floor/higher-ceiling (hopefully obvious) alternative on FD. On DK Hassan is a viable place to park some dollars at a reasonable multiple. He is a nightly candidate to really go off, but his price point has reached the level where he’s unlikely to post a truly game-changing multiple.

Joe Johnson - FD 4800 DK 4700
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.38 DK Proj. Pts - 25.45

I guess I could have led with Johnson, but that just felt wrong. He is somehow the top SF play of the night on FD and the best DK play without the last name of Green. He didn’t get his shots in Game 2 and couldn’t hit them in Game 3, but performed as expected in Games 4 and 5. We should see more of the same on Friday. Combined with the dearth of alternatives at SF, that makes him a chalk play on FD and a reasonable alternative on DK. Seriously.

Jeremy Lin - FD 4900 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.75 DK Proj. Pts - 24.76

The third and final recommendation from this game is Lin. Batum’s return adds some risk, creating a microscopic floor. On the other hand, he’s been playing really, really well in real-world terms and produced above value for fantasy purposes. The best I have for you here is this: on FD, you need two shooting guards, and if you don’t want two Clippers, Lin’s the next-best option. I have nothing at all for you on DK, where he’s listed as a PG and not terribly attractive. Mercifully, we get to move on to the DFS game of the night.

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers

Analysis

The game script here is the same as Game 5. The undermanned Clippers will look to compete with Portland, and the few players still able to get on the court and play at an NBA level will get heavy minutes and usage. The Blazers will look to execute the coupe-de-grace and put LA out of its misery with a fourth straight win. The only reason to expect their rotations or minutes to change much is blowout risk, but in a playoff clincher I think Portland is likely to keep the regulars on the court most of their usual minutes, even in a rout. Given the lack of variables in this game (and references above) I expect you are anticipating the next section.

Top Value Plays

Jamal Crawford - FD 5200 DK 5600
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 35.4 DK Proj. Pts - 38.4

Austin Rivers - FD 4200 DK 3900
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.44 DK Proj. Pts - 26.19

Jeff Green - FD 4900 DK 4200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.4 DK Proj. Pts - 27.96

J.J. Redick - FD 4300 DK 4300
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.36 DK Proj. Pts - 26.38

I figured I’d just cut to the chase. These four Clippers are the top four plays on DK, at any position. They represent four of the five top values on FD. If you like Pts/$ (the way we define value in DFS), run them (or as many as you can). Each will see major minutes and usage. They’ll probably all lose, but they’ll go down swinging. On FD, you actually have to choose three of the four for salary reasons (I’d suggest overspending on the Lowry/Lillard PG combo rather than running Rivers – you can’t afford to leave cash on the table caused by rostering him, in terms of raw fantasy points). On DK, you now have your SG, G, and Utility positions filled, plus the SF of the night. You won’t be standing out from the crowd, but you can do that a couple of other places. You have choices to make at PG, PF, and C on DK (and second choices at SF and PF on FD). Make those count.

Mason Plumlee - FD 6200 DK 6700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.15 DK Proj. Pts - 33.64

Are there more reasons so few lineup choices exist, you ask? Mason Plumlee is the chalk play of the night at Center on FD (like Joe Johnson at SF – I can’t believe I typed that). It’s not even close. You’ll even find it difficult to justify leaving him off your roster on FD based on salary issues, as there are better ways to mete out your dollars. On DK, Whiteside is a lot closer in value, and you may need to go there for spending reasons (I just did the math, and that’s pretty much the case).

Damian Lillard - FD 8200 DK 8500
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 40.83 DK Proj. Pts - 43.92

Having just mentioned him, you had to figure this was coming. Lillard is comparable to Lowry on FD in Pts/$ terms. Ideally, you could choose, providing a scarce opportunity to distinguish your roster from others’. Unfortunately, as also stated above, you pretty much have to run both to spend anywhere close to your full salary. On DK, he’s close to Lowry, with a slightly lower floor and a slightly higher ceiling. You have an option there.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5900 DK 5700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 26.08 DK Proj. Pts - 27.08

And finally, if you insist on passing on Clippers and spending up instead at other positions, Aminu is a decent SF option on FD. That’s one way to fade Paul George. The DFSR projections don’t care much for Aminu’s DK value on Friday.

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