Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/29/16

 

With just one afternoon game and 14 evening games we will be concentrating mostly on the main slate on Friday. We get a nice selection of top tier starting pitching at the top in some very favorable matchups. At this point the weather looks decent across the slate outside of the Angel/Ranger game in Arlington. Be sure to check out the news article posted tomorrow to catch up on all the recent news and weather updates.

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PITCHER

Corey Kluber FD 11000 DK 12500
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 41.09 DK - 23.14

After three straight losses to open the 2016 season Kluber came out strong last start striking out 10 Tigers in eight innings. He now gets a terrific matchup vs. the Phillies who rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA(.304) and strikeout rate(21.9%) vs. right handed pitching. Kluber has provided the strikeout upside we have all expected with 29 K's with only 5 BB's but the issue so far this season has been the long ball. He should have no problem with the Phillies who have limited power outside Mikael Franco. He is the highest rated pitcher in the projections and well worth paying up for on Friday night.

Felix Hernandez FD 10600 DK 10100
Opponent - KC (Medlen) Park - @SEA
FD - 35.08 DK - 18.4

He has been a bit on the lucky side with a .188 BABIP so far this season and was roughed up in his last start giving up two homers to the Angels in road loss. He had only given up two earned runs in his first three starts with 20 strikeouts. He is another pitcher having early season issues with control as he is giving up 5.4 BB/9 which is near three walks worse than his career average. He gets a decent matchup vs. the Royals on Friday who sit in the middle of the league in wOBA(.304) in a great pitchers park where Felix has performed much better over his career. He comes at a nice discount from Kluber on FanDuel and is safe in all formats.
Drew Smyly FD 8700 DK 10400
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TB
FD - 25.83 DK - 12.46

If you are looking for a low owned tournament option on Friday you should seriously consider Drew Smyly. Outside of his first start against these Blue Jays he has been terrific with a 33 K's and only 5 BB's with a 2.51 ERA. So why put him out there against the Jays again? The upside. The Jays have actually been pretty bad against left handed pitching this season as they rank 24th in wOBA(.288) and are striking out over 25% of the time. He can definitely get in trouble with the huge power he is facing but can also shut them down completely. Great recipe for a low owned, high upside play for large field tournaments.

 

 

CATCHER

Matt Wieters FD 2300 DK 3100
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.33

He got the night off on Thursday as the Orioles beat up on the White Sox in game one of the four game series. As Austyn wrote up last night, Wieters has struggled to start the season but his peripheral numbers suggest a positive regression as he has a high hard hit rate(36.4 %). He has positive splits vs. left handed pitching for his career and gets a decent matchup on Friday vs. Carlos Rodon who has K upside but also struggles with control. Wieters normally hits 6th in the lineup right behind strong power hitting outfielders Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo presenting some RBI opportunities on Friday.

Yan Gomes FD 2800 DK 3000
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.2

With the top hitting catchers in tough mathcups on Friday we gravitate down the list and will go with the value on Friday night. Gomes has shown some power upside this season with three home runs and 11 RBI and gets a favorable matchup vs. Adam Morgan making his season debut. In 15 starts last season Morgan only struck out around five batters per nine innings with a very low 30% ground ball rate.

 

FIRST BASE

Carlos Santana FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 14.17 DK - 10.73

Another Indians hitter in a prime spot vs. an inexperienced, right handed, fly ball pitcher. Santana has been red hot lately since taking over as the Indians leadoff hitter and has hits in three straight and seven of his last eight games with five multi hit efforts. He is a terrific leadoff hitter in the sense that he has an above average OBP and if he continues to hit at the top of the lineup will provide a ton of value, especially with a sub $4K price tag.

Albert Pujols FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.13 DK - 10.08

The Angel bats are in a great spot on Friday night as they face Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers. It has been a somewhat frustrating start for Pujols who is working with an extremely low .136 BABIP which is 160 points below his career average. He has shown the power we like to see for GPP's as he has clubbed five HR's and added 14 RBI and 10 runs early on in the 2016 season. Expect some positive regression to come as early as tonight as Lewis is struggling with a very low 2 to 1 K/BB and a 17% HR/FB ratio.

Jose Abreu FD 3200 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.12 DK - 10.73

Much like Pujols, Abreu has dealt with a low BABIP(.213) which has held his average below the .200 mark so far this season. Things has started to turn around recently as he has recorded hits in three straight and five of his last six games. The power is still missing but as he heats up it is likely to come back as he is hitting more fly balls(40%)  than the last two seasons but has seen his HR/FB rate drop from 19+% down to around 11% this season. It will be a great matchup for the power hitters on the White Sox as Wright is a fly ball pitcher who isn't going to strike many out.

SECOND BASE

Ben Zobrist FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.97

I don't blame you if you want to fit the Braves/Cubs game in and set an all day lineup. I would only recommend doing so on DraftKings where you can swap out players before the main slate starts at 7:00 pm et. The upside is incredible as the Cubs are the second highest scoring team(123 runs) in the majors to start the season and lead the league with a 16-5 record. Zobrist is only hitting .246 on the year but has a high .390 OBP as he is currently running a 19.5% BB rate. With those numbers and him hitting in front of some power bats he is going to get a ton of run opportunities, especially against a weak pitcher in Aaron Blair who scare nobody.

Brett Lawrie FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.39 DK - 8.12

A very safe pick for cash games at second base in the evening slate. Lawrie has been very consistent for his new team with hits in 17 of his first 23 games with a .266 batting average. He has also added 11 runs and 7 RBI. The power has been lacking as his HR/FB rate has dropped nearly 7% from the last two years. As mentioned with Abreu the White Sox get a favorable matchup vs. a fly ball pitcher on Friday night which could jump start the power bats.

Also Consider - Ian Kinsler(DET)

SHORTSTOP

Francisco Lindor FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.53 DK - 10.44

As you can probably already tell the projection system absolutely loves the Indians infield in this matchup vs. the Phillies on Friday. They face Adam Morgan making his first start of the year. Lindor is a switch hitter that has absolutely crushed left handed pitching this year to the tune of a .406 average and his only home run. Trust him in any format tonight.

Jimmy Rollins FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.5 DK - 9.46

He has limited upside but is a consistent hitter who projects well for cash games. He has picked up a hit in six of his last eight with four extra base hits and two stolen bases. He hits second for the White Sox and should get plenty of opportunities to score if he can get on base in front front of the powerful core of the lineup vs. a fly ball pitcher.

Also Consider - Carlos Carrea(HOU)

THIRD BASE

Justin Turner FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Vargas) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.8

When looking for value in cash games there a ton of great options who hit near the top of the lineup and come in at very affordable prices. Turner is one of these players. He hits third behind Corey Seager and right in front of Adrian Gonzalez. He doesn't provide the upside you need in GPP but is consistent and gets a decent matchup vs. Cesar Vargas, making his second career major league start in Dodger Stadium.

Adrian Beltre FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.27

If it's upside you're looking for at 3B tonight, turn to Adrian Beltre. He hits third in Rangers lineup who rank 9th in runs scored(95) and face a left handed pitcher on Friday. Beltre one of my top BvP plays of the night. If you're into that sort of thing. I usually try and avoid it until the sample size grows and Beltre has faced Santiago 37 times. That's a healthy number. He has walked six times while only striking out five and has eight hits with three of them being home runs. If you're not into BvP, well Beltre has a career .300+ average vs. left handed pitching..

 

Also Consider - Manny Machado(BAL)

OUTFIELD

Mike Trout FD 4900 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 16.69 DK - 13.01
Kole Calhoun FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.69

As I mentioned with Pujols, the Angels are in a great spot vs. Colby Lewis on Friday who they have crushed in their career. In 30 at bats Trout has raked Lewis to the tune of a .574 wOBA/.567 ISO in 25 career at bats while Calhoun isn't far behind with a .446 wOBA/.250 ISO in 28 career at bats. It looks like most of the rain is scheduled for the afternoon and should clear for game time with a possible delay. Be sure to check out the news article posted in the late morning/early afternoon for updates as this game currently has the highest risk of rain. Trout has been hot over the last week with four home runs and nine RBI and is safe in any format while Calhoun has been struggling and should only be considered in a GPP stacking scenario.

Adam Jones FD 2500 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.42

For cash games I prefer Jones over Calhoun as he comes in at a cheaper price and the weather is much less of a concern in Baltimore on Friday. Oh ya and he is much better hitter overall, despite the slow start to the season which can be attributed to his low BABIP of .238 which is around 70 points lower than his career mark.  He is coming off his second multi hit game of the year on Thursday and will look to carry the momentum over into Fridays matchup against Rodon.

Adam Eaton FD 3200 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.83 DK - 10.55

The projection system is giving us another White Sox batter on Friday. It's hard to ignore the matchup fly ball pitcher Mike Wright and Eaton has been a spark plug at the top of the White Sox lineup. He is hitting over .300 on the season and has multiple hits in three of his last four games. Look for a bounce back game for the entire team after getting thumped by the O's 10-2 last night.

 

Also Consider - J.D. Martinez(DET), Ryan Braun(MIL), Ryan Raburn(COL)

 

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