Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/28/16

 

Welcome to Thursday baseball! We have a split slate today with both slates consisting of 4 games. On both slates we have an ace and a few spots to target hitters in! Let's get to it! Also, make sure to check out our 2 new MLB daily articles as well as the new and improved updates article.

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PITCHER

Early Slate

Jake Arrieta FD 12900 DK 13800
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @CHC
FD - 44.92 DK - 25.15

Arrieta enters this game coming off a no-hitter where he made the Cincy Reds lineup look silly. There is absolutely no excuse not to roster Arrieta in your cash games tonight. The Brewers are going to end up being a team that struggles against righties as the majority of their good bats are righties in Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter. Arrieta has held both righties and lefties to a 290- wOBA in 2015 and 2016. His peripherals lineup perfectly with his surface and actually suggest he will give up a few amount of home runs this season. I will have Arrieta in every single cash game tonight and the majority of my tournaments.

Tanner Roark FD 8200 DK 7800
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @WSH
FD - 31.86 DK - 16.28

Tanner Roark exploded last time out against the Twins with a 7 inning, 15 strikeout win. While we certainly can't expect anything close to that, we can expect a nice outing here. The Phillies are a team that can struggle against pitchers who can control their fastball. Roark is very good at just that as shown by his 6% BB rate in 2015. Roark has been an above average pitcher against both lefties and righties over the course of his career with a combines .290 wOBA. I expect the Nationals to give Roark plenty of run support with Aaron Nola on the other side of this one. I will only have Roark in tournaments as Arrieta will be in every cash game.

Evening Slate

Jose Fernandez FD 10700 DK 11400
Opponent - LAD (Maeda) Park - @LAD
FD - 35.29 DK - 19.72

Jose Fernandez is coming off a start against the Giants where he was knocked around a bit. However, I am not taking much stock into that performance as Jake Peavy was the main guy to do damage, which will not happen again. Fernandez has been one of the best pitchers in the league since his debut in 2013 with a career .245 combined wOBA. I look for the Dodgers to have a very tough time sustaining any rallies against Fernandez as the majority of their hitters are much better against lefties. Although the win is far from safe, I am comfortable using Fernandez in both cash games and tournaments.

Kenta Maeda FD 9100 DK 10000
Opponent - MIA (Fernandez) Park - @LAD
FD - 31.14 DK - 16.04

Kenta Maeda sure has been amazing, huh? With everyone expecting him to be blown up last start, Maeda went and threw a no-hitter through 6 innings in Coors Field. While the sample size is very small and not completely reliable, Maeda has held righties and lefties to a combined .220 wOBA and a 25% strikeout rate. The Miami Marlins are very weak against righties with only 2 hitters in Gordon and Yelich that are exceptional against righties. The lineup offers plenty of strikeouts with guys like Stanton, Ozuna and Bour. Maeda is an exceptional play in both cash games and tournaments.

CATCHER

Early Slate

Nick Hundley FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @COL
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.58

This will be the first Rockies hitter listed of many and that is because they are taking on Juan Nicasio in Coors Field. Sure, the Pirates may be turning Nicasio into a decent pitcher, however, let's take a look at his career numbers in Coors. Nicasio has exhibited a combined wOBA of .344 in Coors Field and an even worse 4.50 xFIP. Nick Hundred was very good against righties last year with a .353 wOBA and an even better .368 in Coors Field.

Miguel Montero FD 2500 DK 2900
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CHC
FD - 2.12 DK - 1.64

You can't be surprised to see Miguel Montero in here, can you? He is once again taking on a below average righty and will be hitting 6th. Until that changes, you are going to see him here nearly every day. Montero has been putting up good numbers this year and that won't change if he stays in the lineup. However, Montero was scratched a few nights ago with back stiffness. Make sure you keep an eye on his status throughout the day. I will update here if anything is confirmed.

Evening Slate

Matt Wieters FD 2400 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.39

Sure, Wieters has really struggled this year. However, his peripherals suggest something completely different. With a hard-hit rate of 39%, there is some huge positive regression coming. This is a great spot for that to happen as he will be facing off with John Danks in a hitters ballpark. Danks has been notoriously bad against righties and that will not change this year. Camden Yards is a top 10 ballpark for hitters and if Wieters can get a hold of one, it will only help.

Consider - Dioner Navarro
 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

John Jaso FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 14.74 DK - 11.42

While Jaso typically doesn't have the same power upside as most, Coors Field will even that out a bit. Jaso has been a career righty smasher with a .354 wOBA and .409 SLG. I look for Jaso to have another great year vs lefties and Tyler Chatwood is certainly no exception. Chatwood has given up a career .347 wOBA to righties and his peripherals do not suggest any improvement. Jaso and the rest of the Pirates are in a terrific spot here.

Consider - Anthony Rizzo

Evening Slate

Jose Abreu FD 3200 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.98 DK - 10.62

Jose Abreu will be taking on Tyler Wilson in the hitters park Camden Yards. Tyler Wilson is a righty who has struggled against righties moreso than lefties. On the other hand, Abreu has been a reverse splits hitter and has been better against righties with a .384 wOBA. Tyler Wilson has a 4 pitch arensal and tends to rely on his fastball in key spots. That is not a good thing if you are facing off with the heater smashing Jose Abreu.

Consider - Brandon Moss

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate

Josh Harrison FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 11.45 DK - 9.48

Josh Harrison will likely be hitting in the 7 spot here which is not always a bad thing. A lot of times in Coors Field the core of the lineup will get on and the bottom of the lineup guys get the opportunity to drive them in. Harrison hit righties well last year with a .306 wOBA and his peripherals suggest he will improve as he reaches his prime. I prefer Harrison in tournaments as he is reliant on his team succeeding.

Consider - Daniel Murphy

Evening Slate

Brett Lawrie FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.26

Brett Lawrie is a player I like rostering as he always seems to be a big part of his teams success. Lawrie hits righties well with a career .319 wOBA and actually has held a .409 wOBA in Camden Yards. As mentioned above, Tyler Wilson struggles against righties and is nobody to be scared of. I look for the White to have a very productive day and Lawrie should easily pay off his price tag.

Consider - Dee Gordon
 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Trevor Story FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @COL
FD - 12.27 DK - 10

Story is coming off a game where he finally got back to his upside and smashed a home run. Story has hit righties well and while the sample size is very low, it is all we have. Nicasio is going to have some serious troubles with this lineup as they are very free swinging and Nicasio lives in the strike zone. I do not see a scenario where this Rockies lineup is held at bay and Story is likely going to be hitting 2nd or 3rd.

Consider - Javier Baez/Addison Russell

Evening Slate

Jimmy Rollins FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.18 DK - 9.2

Rollins in another White Sox bat that is firmly in play. As mentioned a few times, Tyler Wilson is a pretty horrid pitcher and will struggle to contain this lineup in a hitters park, especially Camden Yards. Rollins has hit righties well over the course of his career with a .322 wOBA. Rollins gives you a bit of upside as well with speed and power. I am comfortable with Rollins in both cash games and tournaments.

Consider - J.J. Hardy

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

David Freese FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.24 DK - 9.47

While Freese is not very good against righties, it is very difficult to not take a look at the 3 hitter in Coors Field. Tyler CHatwood is nobody to be scared of and Freese should be able to get some great opportunities here. It does make me a bit more confident in Freese when you consider he will be protected by McCutchen and Starling Marte. Chatwood has given up a .347 career wOBA to righties.

Chris Coghlan FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @DET
FD - 8.99 DK - 7.23

Coghlan is still sitting at an extreme discount and until his price comes way up he will a terrific play against righties. Coghlan will be hitting 2nd and has hit righties to a .341 wOBA clip over the course of his career. Anibal Sanchez has been a good pitcher over the course of his career but he has fallen off a bit and has been struggling against righties over the past couple years.

Evening Slate

Manny Machado FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.43

Manny Machado is in a terrific spot here against a horrible lefty in John Danks. Machado hit lefties well with a .330 wOBA and will likely only get better as he approaches the prime age of 27. The Orioles are in a prime spot here against Danks who has been horrible against both righties and lefties over the past couple years.

Consider - Matt Carpenter

 

OUTFIELD

Early Slate

Justin Upton FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - OAK (Bassitt) Park - @DET
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.54
J.D. Martinez FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Bassitt) Park - @DET
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.64

J.D. Martinez is coming off of a huge game where he hit a double, a homer and drove in 4 runs. Justin Upton on the other hand went 0 for 5 but hit the ball hard a few times. Chris Bassitt struggled against righties last year with a .324 wOBA and his peripherals suggest he will decline further. Both Martinez and Upton have huge upside in this match up and I expect at least 1 of these guys to send one out of Comerica Park. I am very comfortable with both of these guys in cash games and tournaments as they are not fully reliant on 1 stat.

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @COL
FD - 15.19 DK - 11.65
Gerardo Parra FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @COL
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.55

This is the second of 3 combos in the outfield that are very solid plays. Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra are both lefties that absolutely smash right handed pitching. As mentioned above, Juan Nicasio has struggled in Coors Field mightily and there is no reason to believe he will get any better. Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra have both hit righties to a .370+ wOBA over the past 2 seasons. I expect the Rockies to destroy Nicasio and these 2 should play a huge factor in that.

Evening Slate

Adam Jones FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.69 DK - 10.67
Joey Rickard FD 2500 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.25 DK - 9.37
Nolan Reimold FD 2300 DK 3100
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.98

The 3rd and final outfield combo is that of Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Joey Rickard. All 3 of these guys hit lefties very well with wOBA's of .344 for Jones, .342 for Reimold and .445 (not sustainable) for Joey Rickard. As mentioned, John Danks has been atrocious over the past couple years against righties. In 2015, Danks gave up 16 home runs and a .353 wOBA to righties. With his age and peripherals, we can only expect Danks to get better and certainly not worse. I look for the Orioles to have a huge game tonight and these 3 guys have a great chance of being heavily involved.

Jeremy Hazelbaker FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 2.24 DK - 1.94

Hazelbaker has bursted onto the major league scene at age 28 and has instantly begun crushing righties. Rubby De La Rosa has been pitiful against lefties over the past 2 years with a .404 wOBA and 5.15 xFIP. The Cardinals lefties are in a terrific spot here against a horrible pitcher in a terrific ballpark. Jeremy Hazelbaker is my sleeper pick for home run of the night!

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