Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/27/16 Opening Round

Wednesday brings us three games (essentially a full slate in the playoffs), with an interesting twist: instead of two early games overlapping, we have two late games that will tip off 30 minutes apart. That has obvious ramifications for lineup lock on sites that don’t allow late substitutions. The real theme of the night is injury. The Warriors only have one serious injury, but it’s fairly important (if you consider losing the likely MVP and best player in the league “important”). Don’t feel too bad for GSW though – the Clippers just lost their best TWO players (apologies to DeAndre Jordan). There are some (relatively) “sure things” and there will be many low-price bargain opportunities. The problem is that there are limited opportunities to spend your salary. Most lineups will contain the same high-end picks. Selecting the right low-salary players will likely make the difference in cashing. That said, the picks below mainly focus on the higher-end guys, because they're (literally) predictable. The punt options will be numerous, but clearly identifying them is educated guessing. I’ll throw out some cheaper guys for consideration, but use them as a point of reference, and don’t consider them locks by any stretch.

Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Wednesday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.

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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat

Analysis

This will be the most predictable game of the night. That’s quite a statement, given that the series hasn’t been consistent. After the Heat thrashed the Hornets twice in Miami, Charlotte went home and promptly clobbered the Heat in Game 3. The Hornets followed that with a tightly contested victory in Game 4. Three of the previous games were comfortable wins by the home team. The Heat are favored on Wednesday, but it appears mainly because they’re playing at home (the spread is 5, roughly the equivalent of home court advantage in the playoffs). What to make of all of this? The high-priced stars are likely to get their minutes and generate fantasy production. You will probably see many rosters stuffed with players from this game.

Top Value Plays

Kemba Walker - FD 8200 DK 8300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.52 DK Proj. Pts - 41.27

Walker is coming off a ridiculous outing in Game 4. We don’t anticipate a repeat. In fact, he’s not that great a play on a Pts/$ basis, but is one of the better high-end ($7,000+) options. On a night without an abundance of those (exactly 8), you could do worse. He’ll have the ball in his hand for a bunch of minutes, and will likely produce. We just don’t see much beyond a 5x+ coming, and that’s unusual for a “top play.”

Hassan Whiteside - FD 8300 DK 8100
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 38.29 DK Proj. Pts - 38.94

Whiteside is the only top-end option at Center. He’s coming off a poor performance, likely influenced significantly by a thigh bruise. It’s not clear that he’s entirely over that. On the plus side, his salary dropped nearly 5%. So there’s that. If he is able to return to 30 or so minutes on Wednesday, the DFSR system likes his chances to rebound (sorry) with a more typical outing.

Jeremy Lin - FD 4800 DK 5300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 25.34 DK Proj. Pts - 26.41

There is a caveat here, but Linsanity has come back and seems likely to continue. Lin’s continued high output is dependent on Nic Batum’s injury status. If Batum remains out, he becomes a chalk play at SG as one of the top options on FD (on DK, he’s listed at PG, where he’s one of the better options as well). With minutes and shots from Games 3 and 4, I think you pretty much have to run him in cash games on FD (unless you’re willing to risk Courtney Lee, who I sure don’t trust – do you?).

Speaking of Courtney Lee… keep an eye on him, as the DFSR system likes him a lot, but with quite a low floor (hence the trust issues). Also, consider Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams (though you may be among the legions of owners, including myself, burned by both on Monday night).

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers

Analysis

It’s hard to count on players from this game, especially from the Clippers (with one possible exception). CP3 and Blake “Mr. Kia” Griffin are now down for the count. Who picks up the minutes and shots? We can make an educated guess, but we have to go back towards the end of the regular season to get an idea of what the Clips’ rotations may resemble. It’s unlikely the Blazers’ rotations and minutes change much, given that they’re coming off two solid wins. Still, it’s difficult to know how well the Clippers will defend, and there’s more than a modicum of blowout risk in the Blazers’ favor (can’t believe I just typed that). There are options on both sides here, but maybe not who you’d expect.

Along those lines, DeAndre Jordan is NOT listed, as it’s simply unclear how the Clips are going to get him the ball. That holds his ceiling down (he has certainly been productive thus far, though not a game changer) and suppresses his projected multiple. He’s simply a relatively unfavorable spending opportunity.

Top Value Plays

Damian Lillard - FD 8000 DK 8200
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 40.83 DK Proj. Pts - 43.92

Lillard is coming off a barely passable outing in Game 4. Questions remain, however, as to who’s going to check him. Austin Rivers? Pablo Prigioni (if he sees the floor)? I’m having a hard time seeing Lillard doing anything other than pretty much what Lillard wants to do. So are the projections. He is the only player with a projected 5x+ multiple on FD with a salary above $7k. He’s easily the best expensive option on DK. You pretty much have to roster him.

Mason Plumlee - FD 6100 DK 6200
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.15 DK Proj. Pts - 33.64

Mason Plumlee (the only one still playing) is the pick of the night at center on FD. No one is remotely near him in terms of Pts/$. The only justification I could see for not playing him there is to spend salary. In good conscience, I must direct you to do so elsewhere. On DK, you could justify a couple of center options, though he is the top Pts/$ player at any position costing north of $6k. His DK salary just jumped over 10%, but that won’t stop me from running him, and I suggest you not let it stop you either.

Jeff Green - FD 3800 DK 3400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.4 DK Proj. Pts - 27.96

Austin Rivers - FD 4000 DK 3300
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.78 DK Proj. Pts - 25.49

These guys come together because they’re both attractive for the same reasons: they're Clippers with low prices and high likely minutes. Green is the play of the night at any position and any price on FD and DK. He has a ridiculous 4.5x floor with nearly 10x upside. I don’t have much more to say. Rivers is a little different, in a couple of ways. Unlike Green he’s a guard, though note that he’s the highest-rated PG on FD and top SG option on DK. He has the same high floor as Green (actually, higher per the DFSR projections), but the upside isn’t as spectacular. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t run him, just don’t expect a 10x (I wouldn’t expect that from Green either, it’s just a legitimate possibility). Assuming you find other places to spend your money, Rivers joins Green as the top lower-cost alternatives on Wednesday.

Jamal Crawford - FD 4800 DK 5100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.72 DK Proj. Pts - 32.5

I know, I know… you’ve been wondering when he’d come up. He’s a slightly lesser value than Rivers on DK due to price, though far and away the top SG on FD. We all know the minutes and shots will be there. It’s a little harder to project top-end peripheral stats (if you count anything other than points – and threes on DK – as peripheral). The possibility of an off night from the field keeps his floor low. Nevertheless, the upside is there, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were in every single lineup in every single contest, even for cash games. I’m simply attempting to temper your expectations a bit. I’ll probably have him in most (ok, all) of my lineups too.

C.J. McCollum - FD 6900 DK 6700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.7 DK Proj. Pts - 34.56

Because you have money and you have to spend it (well, you don’t have to, but it’s highly advisable in a salary-cap-style contest). McCollum’s projected multiples won’t wow you, nor will his relative positional ranking. He simply represents a reliable, predictable place to park salary at a tolerable Pts/$ level. If the money works, spend it here with a reasonable sense of comfort. If not, you’re probably not missing the opportunity to run away with a top prize.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 6000 DK 5600
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 28.45 DK Proj. Pts - 29.54

But for Jeff Green, he’d be my top reliable recommendation at SF for Wednesday. Aminu can’t touch him on price and upside though. What he can do is serve as a solid second SF on FD, and a decent place to spend mid-level money on DK. In some ways, picking him serves as an opportunity to point out that he’s an excellent fade opportunity on a slate with few. 11x outings tend to boost ownership rates the next game. I wouldn’t fault you for adding Al-Farouq to your lineup, but I could also see why you wouldn’t on a night without a lot of opportunities to differentiate your lineup.

In the “keep an eye on” department for this game, there’s a great deal of risk that comes with a great deal of upside for Alan Crabbe and Cole Aldrich, but really only on DK due to the funky playoff pricing.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

Analysis

This game is actually relatively simple to predict. The Rockets are what they are, and we know what the Warriors look like without Steph Curry. In fact, we know what they look like against the Rockets in the playoffs without Steph Curry. You don’t often find such a solid frame of reference for a team whose best player just went down. None of this means you can bank on anything, this being DFS. But the confidence level in the predictions for this game is relatively high. There are some good top-end players and some good bargains to be had. Enjoy what may be the last time we see the Steph-less Dubs a relatively strong favorite (unless the Clippers somehow find a way to win their series with two hands tied behind their backs).

Top Value Plays

James Harden - FD 10500 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 51.84 DK Proj. Pts - 54.81

The mother of all spend-up-because-you-need-to options, the Beard will have a ridiculous ownership percentage. Given the injury situations, game scripts, and relative salaries, that will be with good reason. He is easily the most expensive player on the slate, and projects around a 5x multiple, which is always decent for an elite option. Given the dearth on Wednesday, you should find spending the money to roster Harden more than acceptable.

Draymond Green - FD 8800 DK 9700
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 42.27 DK Proj. Pts - 44.93

I apologize for the repetitiveness, but Draymond is pictured above because he costs a lot and is a mortal lock for decent production. The DFSR system doesn’t foresee anything spectacular here, just a solid outing from an excellent player who will be one of his team’s primary facilitators. It feels weird saying that about a hybrid PF/C clocking in above 230 lbs, but the truth is a defense (not a Paul Pierce reference, who doesn’t play terrific D these days anyway). Green will be the primary ball handler when Shaun Livingston isn’t on the court, and often even when he is. You can be confident in your expectations, just keep them in check (especially at that price on DK).

Klay Thompson - FD 7600 DK 7900
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 36.39 DK Proj. Pts - 40.34

The Other (Splash) Brother has similarities with several players. He projects to almost the exact multiples as C.J. McCollum on FD and DK, albeit with a lower floor (due to cost) and higher ceiling (due to shot volume). He’s also costlier, which isn’t a bad thing (altogether now) on a night with few spending alternatives. He should be on many rosters by default, and I can’t say yours shouldn’t be one of them.

Dwight Howard - FD 6900 DK 6800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.19 DK Proj. Pts - 34.81

Dwight represents the second-best non-punt center choice on Wednesday. If it weren’t for Plumlee, I’d be telling you to lock him in. Unfortunately for Dwight, Plumlee is available and doesn’t cost significantly less (so the spend-it-where-you-can dynamic isn’t really in play here). He projects for multiples in the 5x range, and has done better than that thus far in the playoffs. Again unfortunately, his price has crept up, holding down his ceiling and his floor. Howard is not a bad option (or he wouldn’t be listed), and if you think he can keep up the 6x+ production, by all means run him out there.

Shaun Livingston - FD 4400 DK 4700
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 24.56 DK Proj. Pts - 24.74

Andre Iguodala - FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 21.52 DK Proj. Pts - 22.99

And finally, two cheaper GSW options likely to see more opportunity than their price increases account for. Livingston is hardly a secret anymore, and I expect you’ll find reasonably high ownership levels here. He’s the starting PG on what (IMHO) remains a near-elite team. He’s shown what he’s likely to do. The only thing weighing him down is his salary, which has gone up over 75% since the beginning of the playoffs. Iguodala is much like Livingston, with a virtual stranglehold on low-30s minutes but a salary that’s skyrocketed. It’s possible he strings together consecutive 9x outings, but I don’t think likely given the price increase and the fact that he’s not a career 81% shooter from the field. If he reverts to form, he’s more likely to be in the 5-6x range, with the potential for an off night (he has plenty of those too) keeping his upside in check and floor lower than ideal. He’s a decent play on Wednesday, but there are lots of them. If you fade him based on other owners’ likely recency bias, I’d understand.

For some true punt/flier options, look across the Rockets depth chart, where you’ll find Donatas Motiejunas, Jason Terry, and Corey Brewer (all of whom had good-to-great multiples last game but have seen their salaries increase significantly, and frankly could have done better). I almost wrote up Michael Beasley, but, well, he’s Michael Beasley – definitely worthy of consideration, if not a full write-up.

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