Washington Nationals' Bryce Harper in action during the first game of a baseball doubleheader against the Philadelphia Phillies, Sunday, June 28, 2015, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Welcome to Wednesday baseball! Yesterday was a pretty fun day with David Price having a huge game and McCutchen homering three times. Today we have 1 early game and 14 later games on the main slate.
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Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @CHC
FD - 44.92 DK - 25.15
Arrieta enters this game coming off a no-hitter where he made the Cincy Reds lineup look silly. There is absolutely no excuse not to roster Arrieta in your cash games tonight. The Brewers are going to end up being a team that struggles against righties as the majority of their good bats are righties in Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter. Arrieta has held both righties and lefties to a 290- wOBA in 2015 and 2016. His peripherals lineup perfectly with his surface and actually suggest he will give up a few amount of home runs this season. I will have Arrieta in every single cash game tonight and the majority of my tournaments.
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @NYM
FD - 42.74 DK - 24.09
Matt Harvey is going to be my favorite GPP pivot off of Arrieta tonight. As mentioned above, the Reds lineup has the ability to be shut down as shown by Arrieta's no-hitter a week ago. Harvey has just as much upside as anyone as shown by his insane strikeout rate of 11+ over the course of his career. Another plus for Harvey tonight is the Mets being in a terrific spot for run support. Jon Moscot will have trouble containing the Mets and the win is almost certain. Make sure you have some exposure to Harvey in tournaments and cash games on 2 pitcher sites.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 35.6 DK - 18.75
If you are looking for a safer option at pitcher that still has huge upside, Gio Gonzalez is your guy. Gonzalez has already pitched against these guys once this year and had a great outing with 7 innings and 8 strikeouts. Gio has always been a pitcher that has huge upside and now that Dusty Baker is the manager we can expect to see him stretched out a few extra pitches. the Phillies lineup is atrocious with guys like Ryan Howard, Cameron Rupp and the pitcher in there. Gio is a fine cash game and tournament play.
Consider - Matt Moore, Hisashi Iwakuma
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.29
You can't be surprised to see Miguel Montero in here, can you? He is once again taking on a below average righty and will be hitting 6th. Until that changes, you are going to see him here nearly every day. Montero has been putting up good numbers this year and that won't change if he stays in the lineup. However, Montero was scratched last night with back stiffness. Make sure you keep an eye on his status throughout the day. I will update here if anything is confirmed.
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.63 DK - 6.71
Russell Martin is expected to return to the lineup tonight after a couple days off with a sore back. A sore back doesn't concern me too much as it is very common for catchers to take a few days off from the heavy labor. While Jose Quintana isn't a horrible lefty, the Blue Jays turn every lefty into bad pitchers. Martin will likely be hitting right after the middle of the lineup and will have great RBI opportunities. I look for Martin to have a good game tonight and is a safe play for cash games.
Consider - Stephen Vogt
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.12
Teixeira and the Yankees will be taking on a weak lefty in Martin Perez tonight. Perez gave up a .336 wOBA to righties last year and his peripheral stats suggest he may only get worse. Mark Teixeira on the other hand, has hit lefties better than righties and in 2015 hit them to the tune of a .347 wOBA. The Yankees are in a great ballpark in Arlington as it ranked top 10 for hitters. I expect the Yankees to have a great game against Perez and for Teixeira to be a big part of it.
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.61
The seeming never again David Ortiz is one again having a great season albeit his increasing age. Ortiz has already showed he is still capable of producing with 3 homers on the young year. Bud Norris was horrible against lefties in 2015 with a .379 wOBA and he has not showed any sign of improvement this season. I look for Ortiz to get a hold of one and send it over the right field short porch. I prefer Ortiz in tournaments as he is a bit power reliant at this point.
Consider - John Jaso, Freddie Freeman, Adam Lind
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.22 DK - 8.18
Kipnis has 6 hits in his last 4 games and is seeing the ball very well. Jose Berrios is a huge prospect and while that does scare me, how often does a rookie come in and dominate in his debut. Berrios did struggle a bit against lefties and Kipnis hit righties to a .389 wOBA clip in 2015. I look for Berrios to struggle a bit in his debut and Kipnis should be able to capitalize on the jitters.
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.58
You will never find me rostering Josh Harrison at $3,900 and $4,500 out of Coors Field. However, the Pirates are in Coors Field, the park that turned Wilin Rosario into Babe Ruth. Harrison had a decent game last night and will look to carry that over into tonight. Harrison hit righties just fine last year with a.306 wOBA in a pitchers ballpark. With second base being a weak position tonight, Josh Harrison gives you some exposure to Coors Field and a game with an 11 over/under.
Consider - Ben Zobrist, D.J. LeMahieu
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @COL
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.43''
Trevor Story has cooled down considerably since the beginning of the season, predictably. While he may not Roger Maris, he is still a very sold hitter against lefties that will have a solid season. Jon Niese is not a good pitcher and has given it up to righties over the past couple years. In 2015, Niese gave up a .330 wOBA and 16 home runs to righties. Story has a ton of upside in this lineup and is protected well with Cargo and Arenado behind him.
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.67
Jimmy Rollins was in the picks article yesterday and came through with a good game. The White Sox are in another good spot here against the extreme flyball pitcher Marco Estrada. Estrada is one of the worst pitchers in the league at giving up homers and the White Sox have plenty of guys with the potential to hit it out, including Rollins. Rollins hit righties to a .325 wOBA over the course of his career and hit 11 of his 14 home runs off of them last year.
Consider - Brad Miller, Jedd Gyorko
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.53
Beltre at home against a weak lefty who gives up a ton of home runs? Sign me up. Beltre has been a notorious lefty crusher over his career with a .376 wOBA and .516 SLG. C.C. Sabathia is a horrible pitcher at this point n his career and struggles immensely against righties as evidenced by his .370 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9 rate. Beltre is in an amazing spot tonight and is my favorite 3rd baseman for sure. The Rangers are going to get to Sabathia tonight and Beltre will be right in the middle of it.
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.26 DK - 8.12
Kyle Seager has been seeing the ball pretty well lately with a high hard-hit rate and low soft contact rate to start the year. He will be facing off with an average right hander tonight in Collin McHugh who tends to struggles against lefties. In 2015, Seager hit righties pretty well with a .322 wOBA and his BABIP suggested it should of been closer to .344. I expect Seager to have a big year this year and this is a great chance for him to perform.
Consider - Alex Rodriguez, David Wright
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.72
There is no reason to get too deep into this one. Harper is on pace to have one of the best seasons ever and has been doing his damage against primarily righties. In 2015 and 2016, Harper has held an absolutely ridiculous .478 wOBA against righties. The thing is, it just may be sustainable. Jeremy Hellickson has been atrocious against lefties and Harper has a great shot at hitting one out tonight. Harper is a great play in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.86
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.92
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.56
We have all 3 of the Dodgers outfielders as terrific plays tonight. This threesome of Dodgers outfielders is absolutely outstanding against lefties and it certainly doesn't look like they will slow down at all. Let's take a look at these guys wOBA's against lefties. We have Yasiel Puig at .393, Enrique Hernandez at .476 and Trayce Thompson at .419. While the last two may not be sustainable, they have certainly proved how good they are against lefties. Justin Nicolino does not have too much of a sample size but he has struggled against righties with a.327 wOBA.
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.84
Delino Deshields has hit lefties very well with a .334 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Sabathia on the other hand, was absolutely horrible against righties last year with a 4.31 xFIP and 1.72 HR/9. This ballpark in Arlington is great for Deshields as it ranked top 10 for righty power in 2015. Deshields is one of my favorite players to roster in the league as he gives you power upside and speed upside.
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.38
Curtis Granderson and the New York Mets are in a terrific spot tonight against a weak right handed pitcher in Jon Moscot. While Moscot has a very small sample size of production, he has been absolutely horrible and his minor league numbers don't suggest anything will change anytime soon. In 2015, Granderson hit lefties to the tune of a .384 wOBA against righties. I expect the Mets to get to Moscot and for Granderson to be the beginning of it all.
Consider - Jason Heyward, Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Ryan Rua, Ryan Raburn, Coors outfielders
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View Comments
For all the BVP fans out there, Kyle Seager is just 1-20 lifetime with ZERO walks against Collin McHugh. Just sayin.
An extreme b vs p like that yes that's huge
No seager today for me
Too small a sample imho. BvP is always just too small of a sample really. I understand why people like it as a quick reference, but it's not something we account for.
Bullshit, BvP is a really great way to see how a guy handles a pitcher, if he had only 3 at bats, I'd tend to agree the sample size is too small. But 20 AB's is a great sample size. I use BvP religiously, as it's a great tool to predict the future.... Using the past lol
Cool. Disagree but that's why I love the comments here. Opens up a lot for discussion. We see sample sizes quite differently. For me it needs to get in the 300-400 PA range until I really start to trust something and even there are so many factors at play like BABIP, HR/FB, park breakdown etc that can wreak havoc with expectancies. Will never get there in BVP data which is why I tend not to trust it.
Thanks for the post Austyn, I enjoy your articles. Plus they help me stay afloat in DFS with the hope to one day hit a lucky one!
Can you play too many 50/50's (changing lineups?) I Played 12 50/50's last night... went 10-2 and made a little over $5 ($1 games) and 1 $2 game, which of course i lost.
Ray u may as well play gpp s with that many lineups. I play 1-2 cash lineups every day
In MLB I actually think this is fine. Greatly reduces variance for sure, though will make your margins smaller. On certain nights I'll take a similar strategy entering all 12 in cash and GPP alike to cover the upside if they hit.
Last night though (optimal lineups crushed) I only ran 2 lineups per site. This was mostly because I just liked the diversity between the top two lineups and thought it covered most of the narratives.
Ya that's fine if it's just changing one or two guys though right? I thought he means like an entirely different lineup
Playing 1 or multiple lineups in cash depends on you. Doug usually plays multiple and I play 1 neither is right or wrong. I found last year playing 1 worked better for me. I entered 36 tourneys last night across 3 different slates and cashed all but 3 which were on cut line using 1 lineup in each. Basically you need to find out what works for you
Optimizer crushed it last night! Thank you.
YESSIR!
It was a very good night. I actually fell asleep early and woke up to the Cueto CGSO which was a nice way to start the day.
It does get rather exhausting having to adjust 12 lineups, takes me about 1.5 hours before game time to make sure it's all perfect. For what $5? lol
I noticed on a lot of the 50/50s the people who play 10-20 lineups play the same lineup for all contests. I verified this by checking their lineup on each contest they joined. Might try that tonight.
Looks like there's supposed to be heavy rain for the Cubs, Nats, and Twins game.. Less so on the Twins game. I'd keep an eye on that if you decide to go with Arrieta or Gio or any players from those teams.
I just did a weather check and it looks like there is a 75-80% chance of rain/storms in Chicago tonight so I think I'm going to stay away from Arrieta and the Cubs (unfortunately). DC looks a little better so I think they should be able to get the Nats/Phillies game in.
Looking to go a bit cheaper route on Pitcher today and try to grab a "low owned gem". Thoughts on Steven Wright vs Atl anyone?
Austin,
You have a typo in the write up on McCutchen, he actually homered 3 times.
The make the write during the games. At that point he had probably hit #2. What a day for him! Had him in all line ups!
Doug, the optimizer doesn't include the 3:45 game.
Thanks
Chris young (the pitcher) is listed as an OF in the Optimizer.
Sure you're not seeing Chris Young the OF who plays for Boston
John, it has been fixed. Thanks.
Sorry Chris Young is a multiple name match thing. I thought I had the IDs mapped correctly but it appears something was wrong. I've corrected.