Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) drives on Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 2, 2016, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/R Brent Smith)
Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.
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Analysis
Remember last time when I mentioned the Pacers biggest issue in staying in this series would be their ability to score consistently? It didn't seem like that big of a problem in game four as they evened things at two games a piece. While the series is tied, the games themselves haven't been all the competitive in a one-off basis with each team commanding the pace of play in their respective wins. That was the case last time with Indiana capitalizing on Toronto's struggles from beyond the three point line and also adding interior scoring from Mahinmi especially.
With the series shifting back to Toronto it stands to reason the Raptors come to play and are a -7 favorite going in. Again, the Raptors' fate hinges much on the play of Derozan and Lowry. Don't expect them to combine for 0-7 from three like they did last game or 8-27 from the field. Both represent outliers in terms of efficiency and volume. I expect to get heavy minutes and usage out of both.
Top Value Plays
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 40.95 DK Proj. Pts - 43.34
I'll mention this a couple of times in this post, but the pricing on this slate is ultra soft. More so on FanDuel, but DraftKings isn't much better. The sites simply haven't fully adjusted for some guys having totally new roles in these playoffs. Lowry isn't that example, but he's a guy we can fit salary-wise because of the other value.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.2 DK Proj. Pts - 25.03
After being on a short minutes leash because of the nearly season-long injuries which kept him out a great deal, Carroll has been out there a ton in the last two going 35 and 32 respectively. They must be confident the extended run won't cause any further flare ups in the Achilles and his price hasn't come close to catching up with how much he's now on the court.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 40.06 DK Proj. Pts - 42.52
His scoring has decreased every game in the series going down 33, 28, 25 and 19 in the last game. It hasn't always been for the same reasons though which is a good sign in my opinion. Last game the Pacers simply took their foot off the gas because they had the game well in hand. Before that, George was getting to the line a ton and putting up threes. If the game stays close, look for more of the same and I think you can fit his salary with relative ease.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.8
He went full beast mode last time out and was a major reason the Pacers took the Raptors to task. He went 22/10 in 33 minutes. I'm not as bullish on that kind of run again because the Pacers will stagger their rotations if he doesn't have the inside game working. But if you think he even sniffs like 28 minutes then he's still an easy value play.
Analysis
The playoffs are so funny. You would think we'd have all of these "known" entities going into even the first round of things. After all, these are the playoff teams for whom consistency has won out over the course of the year. Even if styles deviated a little come playoff time, we typically know so much about how a team will operate going in, or if not completely we at least should have a clear look once the series gets started. And then you have the Celtics. All year they've worked different rotations and minutes in sometimes (fantasy-wise at least) maddening ways. So why should the playoffs be any different. Sure they were dealt a big blow lowing Avery Bradley who was their top minutes/game guy on the season. But they've also chosen to, out of nowhere, start Jonas Jerebko and run him a ton. Terry freaking Rozier is playing twice as much in the playoffs as the regular season while a guy like Sullinger is getting bumped out of contention. It's nuts. And it's working. The Celtics have won the last two have the series tied heading back to Atlanta.
Meanwhile the Hawks are shortening things up on their end, relying much more on their starters now with all of them logging huge minutes in regulation before losing in overtime in game three. I'm hoping we can bank on that kind of minutes expectation going forward as it will help solve some projection issues that have become a hallmark of these playoffs.
Top Value Plays
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57
While not technically a value play, the pricing on FanDuel especially is so soft that you can pretty easily play Thomas without sacrificing much expectation elsewhere. His salary is worth it on the raw point alone and you can almost safely assume that he'll be looking to get shots up early and often. He's given the Hawks' D issues and I suspect that continues tonight.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 29.85
He's a much better deal on FanDuel than on DraftKings and this late in the season on such a short slate the margins are going to be razor thin. The Celtics have run him out pretty hefty minutes and really kicked it up a notch last game. He did 40 in regulation and could be in line for the same tonight. He took a 19 shots in game four and while I don't expect that kind of volume again, the minutes should be up in the same-ish range.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.86 DK Proj. Pts - 29.7
It's always tough to roster guys off the bench, but Smart is one of those dudes who does see his minutes in the right rotations. The Celtics love having him out there for the energy and defense, but he's also a big value add because the scoring (and especially three point) shooting has really come along.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.49 DK Proj. Pts - 26.09
One of a few cheap guys who'll let you roster basically all of the top money guys on this slate. Jerebko averaged 15 minutes per game during the regular season and all of a sudden is going in the low-to-mid 30's. It's nuts and he's been productive, averaging a 13/11 in the last two.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.7 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52
James spent ten minutes on the phone with me yelling about Paul Millsap's game four performance. Mostly because we got pump faked by his lack of volume in the last two games only to be treated to a 45/13 display in which he chucked up an ungodly 31 shots. Don't pencil him in for that kind of game again anytime soon. But considering PF is weak and slate is short you won't have many reasons to fade him. He isn't the safest guy, but much like Thomas I'll get him in there just on the raw point expectation.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.52 DK Proj. Pts - 24.89
I'd stomach it from the minutes alone. I know his performances can be variable at best, but he's shown something against the Celtics in this series as the Hawks have worked real hard to run him off screens and get him shots. Still considered almost a punt play when we look at the slate as a whole. Not a must-add but he's attractive because the rest of the position is weak.
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View Comments
Can;t remember another year with so much huge injury news in the span of hours. Curry out two weeks ( some speculating even longer) and Doc just gave a press conference that made it sound like Blake and Chris are done for the year. Crazy how that shakes up the West and the playoffs in general.
And thank you Mr Aminu for helping crush it tonight..
For real Thomas, i couldnt believe it when i saw Paul heading off the court shaking that hand.....and then Blake......Clippers are crippled..... After the terrible news about Steph.....wow ...just wow. Gotta also throw a shout out to Aminu for my own personal crushage.
I'm not surprised by Sullingers minutes. Hard to remember a player this late in the season who looks bigger and more out of shape than when the season started. Crazy how out of shape he looks.
One thing that's been impossible to predict has been foul trouble. Anyone who rostered Kaminsky tonight got burned when he got two early fouls and was never in the flow of the game and the other night both Teague and Horford went to the bench in the first five minutes with foul trouble and they just kept feeding and riding Milsap after he got hot.
Nights like this are so hard. You don't really have anyone you can hang your hat on.
Been on a serious cold streak the last 3 days. What I can say to you all is to go contrarian with 80-90% of your roster. Focus on the matchups, the away and home teams and I think you guys should be more than fine tonight.
Man, Paul.....
Yesterday's optimal lineup was a flop.I tried it for the 1st time and saw the flaws in it bit went anyway.
Only flaw I saw was in the fracture in Paul's hand. Optimal was safe other than that all night.
The Paul injury cost me 10 grand, was easily on my way to first then ended up in 5th...suppose to be happy about that but found it hard to sleep lastnight
Paul was teamed with Westbrook in the optimal lineup.
Took some people from the optimum as a base line, won a 50 dollar single entry GPP for $1000 so I'm happy
RW Kemba Wade Crawford Aminu Marv Dirk Serge Plum
So many land mines last night seemed like it kept cash lines low, at least in the single entries. Multis where the Sharks enter tons helped account for the mines.
How bout GS range of emotions. Bad news on steph then had to be don happy dance night knowing they could get a depleted clippers or la/port after a 7 game series.
You guys think milsap comes crashing back to earth tonight or still up for a solid if not good night?
I know the optimal is maxing out 60k now, just seems like on a slate with these 2 games I can bring my lineup to pay up that much.