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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/25/16
Welcome to Monday baseball! Today we are going back to normal with a full night slate. Yesterday we had a very interesting slate with the Cubs, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Rockies all having predictable huge games. Make sure you check out the updates article as well as it will touch on any breaking news, weather concerns and some more picks!
NOTE - Jorge De La Rosa is questionable for tonight's game with the stomach flu. I will update here once something is confirmed. Make sure you check the updates article for a ton more on this situation.
UPDATE - It looks like Chad Bettis is going to get the start. Everyone listed below is still a very strong play. However, I do prefer the lefties in John Jaso and Gregory Polanco now.
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A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!
PITCHER
Madison Bumgarner FD 11000 DK 12000
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @SF
FD - 49.34 DK - 28.14
Bumgarner and the Giants will be taking on a San Diego Padres team that is fresh off a decent series against the Cardinals. They will now face off with the Giants in AT&T Park, another very pitcher friendly ballpark. Bumgarner is going to be ready to dominate after starting the yer with a few average starts. This is a perfect spot to get right for Bumgarner as he will be facing off with guys like Jon Jay, Jemile Weeks and Drew Pomeranz. The only guy who scares me is Matt Kemp and he has trouble hitting the inside slider as evidenced by his 8 for 47 history against Bumgarner.
Noah Syndergaard FD 11400 DK 11400
Opponent - CIN (Iglesias) Park - @NYM
FD - 44.41 DK - 25.3
He and Bumgarner are the two biggest moneyline guys going on the day and Thor is expected to give up very few runs to the Reds. Thor's been amazing so far this year, with a 7:1 K:BB ratio and 1.56 xFIP. He's facing a Reds' team in the early season ranking near the bottom of the league in wOBA against righties without many ways to improve. It's a tough call between Syndergaard and Bum today, though their slight price differences on DK and FD make things interesting.
Danny Salazar FD 9200 DK 10700
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIN
FD - 33.81 DK - 18.27
Danny Salazar will be taking on the Minnesota Twins on the road in a game that is sitting at an 8 over/under. However, the Indians are sitting at -150 favorite. This tells me that Vegas expects the Twins to struggle getting runs home. Just 2 days ago, Tanner Roark struck out 15 against this same lineup. Salazar has a spectacular career k/9 rate of 10.1 and an ever better hard-hit rate of 22%. This Twins lineup brings a ton of upside with guys like Miguel Sano, Byung-Ho Park and Eduardo Nunez. I prefer Salazar in tournaments with the safer options available in Bumgarner and Syndergaard.
Taijuan Walker FD 8800 DK 9000
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @SEA
FD - 35.52 DK - 19.18
Walker has pitched fairly well so far this year with 3 quality starts and a nice win against the Indians. While the Astros are no longer a team I love to pick on, they still provide a ton of strikeout upside with guys like Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena and Preston Tucker. Taijuan Walker has showed some great upside in his short career with 2 games last year totaling over 10 strikeouts. Walker is a tournament only play for me. If his slider and changeup are moving, he is in for a great game. If not, he will likely struggle.
Consider - Chris Archer, Rick Porcello
CATCHER
Yan Gomes FD 2900 DK 2800
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.38 DK - 7.51
The Indians are in a great spot today against the weak lefty Tommy Milone. In 2015, Milone gave up a .331 wOBA and an atrocious 14 homers against righties in only 96 innings. In 2014, Yan Gomes hit for a terrific 147 wRC+ against lefties. I am ignoring his 2015 numbers as he was laboring through injuries all season and is now healthy. Gomes appears to be seeing the ball well with a homer and double last time out.
Victor Martinez FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @DET
FD - 9.45 DK - 7.56
Victor Martinez enters this game with hits in 7 of his last 8 games. He will be facing off with Kendall Graveman, a right handed pitcher with average stuff. Graveman has a career .324 wOBA against lefties and his peripherals suggest it may only get worse. Victor Martinez on the other hand, has hit righties well with a .318 wOBA over the past 5 years. I prefer Martinez in tournaments as he goes with team and rarely is the only guy to have a big game.
Consider - Stephen Vogt, Wellington Castillo
FIRST BASE
Miguel Cabrera FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @DET
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.98
Miguel Cabrera is going to be my top option at first baseman here and it is not too close. As mentioned above, Graveman is a righty with average stuff. However, he is actually worse against righties with a .342 wOBA in 2015. With a K% of 16 and a FIP of 4.90, you can expect Graveman to be even worse this season. Miguel Cabrera has hit righties as well as anyone over the course of his career with .401 wOBA. Cabrera is a very safe option here and I love him in both cash games and tournaments.
Mark Teixeira FD 3400 DK 3500
Opponent - TEX (Ramos) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.71 DK - 9.07
Tex has been struggling a bit lately as the entire Yankees team has but will surely return to his normal self very soon. The Yankees will be matching up with a weak lefty in Cesar Ramos. Teixeira has always hit lefties better with a career .387 wOBA compared to a .370 wOBA against righties. In 2015, Ramos gave up a .308 wOBA against righties. I expect Teixeira to get some great RBI opportunities in this one.
Consider - Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman, Mark Reynolds
SECOND BASE
Dee Gordon FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - LAD (Stripling) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.99 DK - 9.05
If you want to see the epitome of variance in baseball, look at the Gordon's last 7 games. I will guarantee Gordon doesn't have another week this whole year where he doesn't get over 3 FanDuel points. Gordon broke out of his little mini slump last night and I look for him to have a huge couple of games here. He will face off with Ross Stripling tonight in Dodgers stadium. Stripling is a right hander that struggled against lefties in the minors. Dee Gordon is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel at $3,300. I will play Gordon against any righty in the league at that price every time. I will likely have him in nearly every lineup tonight.
Rougned Odor FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.4 DK - 8.34
Rougned Odor is a player I love to roster in spots like this against a pitcher with huge blow up potential. While Eovaldi is an above average pitcher, he gave up a .345 wOBA to lefties in 2015. Odor hit righties to the tune of a .333 wOBA in 2015. Odor has power and speed upside which gives you plenty of different ways to score fantasy points. I prefer Odor in tournaments as I don't necessarily expect the Rangers to destroy Eovaldi.
Consider - Josh Harrison, Starlin Castro
SHORTSTOP
Jordy Mercer FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 10.34 DK - 8.35
JORDY MERCER IN COORS AGAINST A LEFTY! Is there anything more magical? well, yes. That's not the point. Mercer has been a notorious lefty crusher over the course of his career with a .380 wOBA and 148 wRC+. The numbers are no joke here as all the peripherals favor Mercer against lefties. The Pirates have been hitting him leadoff against lefties and I am not expecting that to change here. While De La Rosa isn't as bad as most people make him out to be, he struggles in Coors Field against righties. In 2015, De La Rosa gave up a .358 wOBA to righties in Coors Field. Keep your eye out for some more Pirates a little later. UPDATE: De la Rosa's been scratched. We've updated this in our system. Mercer not nearly the play he once was. Sad faces.
Francisco Lindor FD 3500 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.71
Francisco Lindor has been very good to start the year and has deservedly got a nice price jump. However, Tommy Milone is not a very good pitcher and Lindor should be able to get to him. As mentioned above, Milone gave up a .331 wOBA last year to righties. In 2015, Lindor hit lefties to an outstanding .397 wOBA and 158 wRC+. I expect the Indians to get to Milone here and for Lindor to have a huge part of that.
Consider - Ketel Marte, Trevor Story
THIRD BASE
David Freese FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.53
For whatever reason, the Pirates have decided to hit David Freese 3rd this year. While this is a decent (I guess) option against lefties, it makes no sense against righties. However, we don't really care about the Pirates reasoning for making stupid decisions. We need to take advantage of the situation. Freese has hit lefties well over the past few years with a .382 wOBA. As mentioned above, De La Rosa is not good against righties in Coors.
Travis Shaw FD 3000 DK 2900
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.3 DK - 6.58
Travis Shaw is still sitting cheap around the industry even though he keeps producing. Julio Teheran is atrocious against lefties as exhibited by his .386 wOBA in 2015. His BABIP and hard hit rate suggest these numbers are very accurate to his true talent. If Shaw is in the lineup, plug him in as a great low owned tournament option. Shaw has hit righties very well with a .336 wOBA in his short major league career.
Consider - Nolan Arenado, Kyle Seager
OUTFIELD
Andrew McCutchen FD 4900 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 16 DK - 12.59
Starling Marte FD 4600 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 14.63 DK - 11.76
I won't go into why we should be targeting the righty Pirates bats again. However, let's look into these two guys. Against lefties, both McCutchen and Marte have a career wOBA over .375. While that is beyond great, the peripherals suggest they are very accurate. The Pirates should get to De La Rosa early and these guys will have a huge part to do with it. UPDATE: Same as Mercer, no more lefty in Coors, though I'm still on these guys to some degree.
Mitch Moreland FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.44
Mitch Moreland is the type of hitter I take as a 1 off and never really worry about my perception of the rest of the team. Moreland is a pure power hitter and has huge boom or bust upside. As mentioned above, Eovaldi has struggled against lefties with a .345 wOBA in 2015. If Moreland can jump on a fastball he has a great chance of getting it out in that small Rangers ballpark. In 2015, Moreland hit righties to the tune of a .372 wOBA.
Enrique Hernandez FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.84
Here is my favorite tournament flier of the night. Enrique "Kike" Hernandez has smashed lefties since coming up last year with an absurd .480 wOBA. While we can't expect that, we can be assured that he is a lefty specialist and will continue to hit lefties well. Wei-Yin Chen was horrible against righties last year with a ..348 wOBA and a league leading 25 home runs given up. Hernandez is my pick for homer of the night.
Consider - Nomar Mazara, Yasiel Puig, Josh Reddick
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I’m trying to sign up. But it’s not working. I’m getting message Email address already being used. But that’s my Email address . A little help please.
Just a note on your comments on Mad Bum. John Jay is 10 for 20 lifetime against him. I have Jay in a lot of lineups.
I would recommend getting rid of every Jon Jay share you have. That will not end up well.
So is Jon Jay
Nice to see my guy Kike getting some love
Agree with Austyn, Jay not worth risk I’m seeing him at 5 for 11 but plenty of values out there in better situations.
No DH for Boston so Shaw picks up more value as he’s likely to bat 4th
In the fanduel lineup tool it has Syndergard as the pitcher for Baltimore against Evan Longoria.
Thoughts on STL-ARI game? Good pitching matchup but that park is tough. PITT-ARI game yesterday gave up a ton of fantasy points
As of now, I am looking to avoid that game in all aspects. I am not a fan of the pitcher inn that ballpark but am not going to pick on them with hitters either. I think Goldschmidt and Moss are very good GPP plays.
Was game I targeted for gpps yesterday so I did very well much like yesterday they’ll have low ownership I suspect
Not as warm as yesterday but roof should be open and similar wind
De La Rosa has the flu looks the pirates might get an even worse lefty
Rusin listed for Colorado
Rusin? Wow dudes terrible the pirates are definitely getting off on him he’s their long reliever and a god awful lefty
Actually seeing rusin and bettis listed in different spots
for fantasy purposes I hope they start rusin
Rusin pitched 3 innings in relief yesterday, so not going to be him.
It looks like it is going to be Bettis. Everyone is still in play.
Bettis gives up the long ball for sure but he’s not completely terrible makes the pirates slightly less attractive at their prices from where I’m sitting oh well we still got Locke to pick on
Not sure if I should change anything here any advice? Cash 50/50’s
Porcello, Gomes, Cabrera, Gordon, Freese, Mercer, Puig, Marte, Hernandez
I wouldn’t want mercer or freeze if Colorado is starting Bettis he’s a right and those guys were in play assuming they’d get a lefty other than that it looks good that’s just me though
How do we like Mookie Betts today?
Mercer loses value for sure since he’s most likely batting lower in order but Freese still in play batting 3rd
He’s in play for sure I just don’t like his price vs matchup I’d much rather pay a little extra for Arenado (on DK)
Agreed on DK but he gave FD lineup where he’s at a better price. Would be nice if they gave Joyce a start would be nice punt on DK
Mookie Betts or Starling Marte
yea I always roll with Joyce when he starts definitely like to see him out there more
Damn Brandon million dollar question there
Is it for cash game or tournament? Cash I’d probably roll with mookie tournaments I’d grab the huge upside coors provides
It’s a cash 50/50 but prob will enter a tournament. Mainly aiming for cash tonight.
Pittsburgh a predominantly RH lineup that hits RHP well. Other than Mercer think they’re all in play. Would play Marte because he’s actually been better vs RHP than lefties in his career
John George Springer or JD Martinez today? Break it down you seem to know your stuff and I feel getting it right between those two could make or break my lineup tonight thanks
Personally would go with JD as I’m leaning walker as my SP2 on DK but right now I’m not playing either
John who’s your pitcher on FD and pitchers on DK tonight? How bout u Austyn or Doug? MadBum is a tough fade but do we need to go cheaper to fit a few pirates in? For 50/50
I ask. I’m going with kike if he bats 2nd also
Only playing DK for baseball don’t have anyone locked in because I’m waiting on lineups but madbum Thor and walker are my probable targets a lot can change because I have a feeling Joyce plays for marte or mccutchen and gets 2 hole and Shaw is guy I’m close to locking because I think he bats 4th
Wow 20 mph wind going straight out at coors
U da man John
Updated lineup: Any tips?
Porcello, Gomes, Cabrera, Gordon, Freese, Lindor, Marte, Reddick, Hernandez
3B either Freese or Shaw if he bats 4th
Personally I’d play Freese because of park factor but it’s close with Teheran trouble with lefties
What’s favorite clevand Indians stack?
Think Kike may be batting leadoff and disappointed DK got rid of 2b eligibility but temper expectations as a guy I’ve mentioned here but seeing him in a couple write ups makes me think he’ll put up a dud
Do you guys have any thoughts on using Drew Pomeranz as pitcher in H2H
I personally advise paying up tonight in cash games. Pomeranz is a good GPP play.
Yeah, I think you are right I like Madison Bumgarner also tonight. Think I will go ahead and lock him in.
A Rod is out, but he is still in the optimizer
Hadn’t pushed out an update since NYY posted lineup. All good now. He’s out of there.
Man I know it’s vs Chris sale but but carrera at leadoff for the Jays at 2400 ? DK. And he can hit lefties well how bout him for cash , then load up on a few pirates and pitching oh and Shaw
Yup Carerra and Joyce should be 100% plays. Whatever percentage they aren’t played, rest assured you are playing against at least that many folks that don’t follow DFS MLB
On DraftKings at least. Carrera is a little closer on FD
Just looked at the system it loves him I’m locking him in
Oh and sale isn’t pitching perfect. Yes agreed Doug
Oh yeah. Sorry. Thought that was part of the comment. Yeah Sale getting scratched is fantastic.
Napoli/Lindor or Tulo with Jaso or Edwin?
Jaso/ Tulo. But all of those combos I really like.
No love for stroman for cash games? 2nd on dk or do we have enough value to start bum and Thor
With all of the value bats I think it’s very easy to play the two big boys. Stroman is a solid ML favorite but way more runs expected in that game
Need advice should I change anything?
Porcello, Gomes, Cabrera, Gordon, Freese, Lindor, Marte, Carrera, Joyce
$400 to spend on FD
Syndergaard, C. Santana, and Lindor or Salazar, Goldschmidt, Bogaerts? Keep in mind I’m playing Yan Gomes, Pedroia, and Mookie no matter what.
Thx Doug I’m only playing DK tonight but more contests than usual . I’m going with the optimal lineup with only one change . I’m liking it. Good luck all
Hundley not in tools
Castillo/shaw or Gomes/Coghlan??
Matt Joyce baby . He may have made me a decent pay day.
What a sigh of relief