Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Few windy spots
Without much weather to deal with, let's touch on the wind. We have 16 MPH wind blowing out to right in San Francisco. I give a slight bump to the lefties there. In KC, we have 21 MPH winds blowing out to left which gives a big edge to right handed batters.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are in an absolute ideal situation here against Alfredo Simon in Great American Ballpark. Simon has been atrocious against lefties with a .370 wOBA in 2015. The Cubs have the most lethal lineup in the league against righties as evidenced by their top 5 statistics in every single category thus far. The Cubs have been seeing the ball very well and the two must haves of this stack are Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo. Dexter Fowler is seeing the ball as well as anyone I have ever seen. Once Alfredo Simon is knocked out of the game, the Cubs will be up against the "see what sticks" awful Reds bullpen. My favorite Cubs on the day are Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist and Miguel Montero. If you want to be super contrarian, go with Addison Russell or Javier Baez.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will be facing off with a bad lefty at home in the Rogers Centre. Not only is this a top 5 hitters park, these Jays power bats are much more comfortable at home than anywhere else. While Surkamp doesn't have much of a sample size to use, the sample we do have suggests he is going to struggle here. With a career wOBA of .367 against righties, Surkamp is in serious trouble here. The Blue Jays big 4 of Bautista, Encarnacion, Tulowitzki and Donaldson are going to have a huge day and i'm gonna make a bold call and say at least 2 homers are hit between them. If you want to get exposure to this stack without killing your salary, go with Russell Martin or Justin Smoak.
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @SD
FD - 31.15 DK - 15.83
With Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha both struggling, I expect Leake to be very low owned here. The Padres didn't pick up Tony Gwynn or Dave Winfield. They are still the same team that struck out 16 times against Vincent Velasquez a week ago. There is no reason to go crazy and avoid this team. While Leake doesn't have the upside as a guy like Strasburg or Carrasco, he is a pretty safe option. Leake has a combined wOBA under .310 against both lefties and righties over the past 5 years. If Leake is able to get past Kemp and Myers, he will be on his way to a superb start.
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.75 DK - 9.21
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.04
I could drop a few more guys here like Edwin Encarnacion or Josh Donaldson. You get the point. The Blue Jays are in a terrific spot and these two guys are priced very appropriately. As mentioned above, Surkamp has really struggled against righties and his peripherals do not suggest any improvement. Tulowitzki is priced in the same range as guys like Elvis Andrus and Zack Cozart. Bautista however, should go a bit lower owned with plenty of other good options around his price range.
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 14.29 DK - 11.33
Yasiel Puig is a hitter who has always hit righties better than southpaws over the course of his career as shown by his career long .350+ wOBA. On the contrary, Jordan Lyles has struggled against righties with a .327 wOBA and 4.10 xFIP over the past couple years. Coors Field is only going to help any ball that gets in the air and I expect Puig to get a few of those. Let's just hope he hits one hard enough to get it over the fence. All other Dodgers outfielders are in play as well.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
I got smoked yesterday...I am going early slate only today.
.avoiding Coors slate altogether.
Windy as hell here in KC. Going out from the plate FYI!
Bryce Harper and Dexter Fowler not starting today
would you move to Trout vs Miley with Harper and Fowler out? Already have Joey Bats
If there's ever a day to diversify your lineups today is the day
I know. So many guys in favorable spots all around the league today
Anyone rolling the dice on Blair today?
Worth a shot if playing multiple gpps
Catcher is killing me almost every night. any thoughts?
You guys hit it again! B$$m!
Thanks!