Cleveland Indians Jason Kipnis hits an RBI double off Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Alex Wilson during the ninth inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, June 23, 2015, in Cleveland. Brandon Moss scored on the play. The Tigers won 7-3. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
Welcome to Sunday baseball! I hope you guys used some of yesterday's picks to your advantage and had a profitable Saturday. We have a pretty interesting slate here with a ton of bad pitchers and not too many high-end options to choose from. Let's hop into the analysis! Make sure to tune into the updates article as it will touch on any breaking news as well as any weather concerns.
LA Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
With so many juicy match-ups to get into, let's just get this one out of the way. We have Jordan Lyles on the mound for the Rockies and Alex Wood for the Dodgers. Both of these guys struggle mightily against the other handedness and will be great pitchers to attack. Lyles has a career .356 wOBA against lefties which puts every single left handed Dodgers bat in play here. On the Rockies side, Alex Wood gave up a .343 wOBA and a 30% hard hit rate to righties. Therefore, the Rockies righties are in a great spot and will likely get to Wood early and often. To summarize, the Rockies and Dodgers bats are all in great spots. However, there are a ton of great bats on this slate and certainly some spots to pivot. Let's get into those.
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Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @WSH
FD - 43.47 DK - 24.58
Strasburg will take the mound and do his best to follow up the Tanner "Cy" Roark performance from yesterday. The Twins have been horrible thus far into the season and I don't see them turning it around against a dominant righty in Strasburg. Strasburg has looked good this season with 3 quality starts and nearly a strikeout per inning. The Twins will likely trot out a bunch of righties and the lefties will not have too much power. This is a great spot for Strasburg to deliver a 4th straight quality start.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 31.57 DK - 16.82
While the Reds got their bats going last night, they have been very cold over the past week or so. Jason Hammel has pitched very well this year with 3 straight good games. Hammel has been very good with cubs with a combined wOBA of .298 and a soft contact rate of 22%. With a moderate price tag around the industry, Hammel offers a very strong pivot off of Stephen Strasburg. I prefer Hammel in cash games as his upside doesn't lie anywhere near Strasburg.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 29.69 DK - 15.78
Eickhoff is another pitcher that has started off the year tremendously with 2 straight dominant starts. The Brewers have struggled against righties and I project this lineup to finish bottom 5 against righties at the end of the year. In his short major league career, Eickhoff has been dominant against righties with a .209 wOBA and 2.99 xFIP. With all of the best Brewers bats coming from the right side, Eickhoff is in a terrific spot. I look for him to come out and produce another solid start for the Phillies.
Consider - Drew Smyly, Mike Leake
Make sure these guys are in the lineup. Catchers tend to take Sunday as their day off if the game is early.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.31
Miguel Montero returned to the lineup yesterday and remained the same hitter with a couple hits and some hard hit balls. Montero has hit righties well with a 120+ wRC in 3 straight years. Alfredo Simon on the other hand, has been atrocious against lefties with a .369 wOBA and 16 homers given up in 2015. This ballpark will not help Simon as it ranked as the 4th best for lefty power last year.
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.37
Russell Martin seems to be in play day in and day out due to this lineup being so lethal. It is very difficult to not consider him when it seems like every game he comes up with guys in scoring position multiple times. Surkamp is a lefty that has struggled against righties throughout his career with a .367 wOBA. Surkamp is going to have some trouble here and Martin will have some great RBI opportunities.
Consider - Stephen Vogt, Buster Posey
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.99 DK - 11.64
Anthony Rizzo is my favorite play on this slate, including the Dodgers and Rockies in Coors Field. As mentioned above, Simon is an absolute gas can against lefties and has trouble keeping the ball in play. Rizzo is one of the absolute best hitters in baseball against righties as evidenced by his 34% hard hit rate. In 2015, Rizzo hit righties to the tune of a .384 wOBA and 145 wRC+. His peripherals suggest he will only improve with a .272 BABIP. Rizzo is my prediction for home run of the night.
Opponent - DET (Greene) Park - @DET
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.9
Santana has dug himself out of his cold streak since being moved into the leadoff role 2 games ago. Santana is a switch hitter who hits both sides of the plate equally well. Shane Greene is a pitcher who scares nobody as evidenced by his lousy .425 wOBA against lefties in 2015. Santana should be able to get on base and be driven by the big bats behind him.
Consider - Jose Abreu, Ryan Howard
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.32
It seems like the Cubs are in play every day. They are. This lineup is just so good and will rarely completely disappoint you. This is one of the best match ups they could possibly have against Alfredo Simon, a pitcher who should be in AAA at best. Zobrist hits righties better than he does lefties and should be able to capitalize here.
Opponent - DET (Greene) Park - @DET
FD - 12.51 DK - 10
Kipnis has been hitting 2nd behind Santana and will likely do so here. As mentioned above, Shane Greene exhibited a .425 wOBA to lefties last year, the worst in the league among qualified pitchers. While he may not be that horrid, he is far below league average. Kipnis gives you plenty of upside with power and speed in the 2 spot. A mini Santana-Kipnis stack is certainly in play.
Consider - Scooter Gennett, Jose Altuve
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.75 DK - 9.21
TULO! Tulowitzki finally showed his power yesterday that we all know and love. Who is ready for a Tulo explosion? I know I certainly am, especially at these stellar prices around the industry. Tulowitzki has been one of the absolute best hitters in the league against lefties over the past 3 years with a .396 wOBA. Make sure you hop on this train before Tulowitzki is back to $4000. There is a difference between chasing points and getting on a player that is in a terrific spot a night after a big game.
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.02 DK - 8.12
Freddy Galvis and the Phillies are going to be a very under owned stack that has a ton of upside. While Wily Peralta is an average pitcher, he leaves a lot to be desired in the home run category. I am not going to sit here and pretend Galvis is some kind of great hitters. He is a pretty bad hitter. However, if he can get on base, steal a bag and get driven in, he provides plenty of upside and safety. Peralta gave up over 1 HR/9 last year which gives Galvis some power potential.
Consider - Carlos Correa, Jordy Mercer
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.31
Todd Frazier has had a huge week with 3 homers in his last 5 games. Here he will be taking on an average lefty in Derek Holland. Holland has struggled against righties with a .360 wOBA and 10 homers given up in only 48 innings. Frazier has hit lefties better over the course of his career with a 120+ wRC+ in each year. I look for Frazier to get some good looks at a few fastballs today.
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.64 DK - 7.68
David Freese will likely be hitting 3rd and this pick is contingent on that. Robbie Ray is a southpaw who has struggled a bit vs righties with a career .331 wOBA. Freese has hit lefties much better over the course of his career with a .359 wOBA. I expect these Pirates to wake up in a match up with a lefty in Chase Field.
Consider - Maikel Franco, Josh Donaldson
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.21
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.57
Here are another 2 righty pirates bats. I am expecting the Pirates to go under owned and for these guys to rake against a lefty. As mentioned directly above, Robbie Ray is a lefty who has struggled to contain righties in all facets. These two guys seem to work together and if one is hot, the other is as well. If the Pirates can do what I expect here, it will be a long night for the Diamondbacks and a long sweat for your Pirates stack.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.49 DK - 11.44
Heyward is going to hit a home run sooner or later. While he isn't necessarily a power hitter, he has some pop in his bat. Simon offers up a great opportunity for just that. As mentioned above a few times, Simon struggles mightily against lefties. Heyward also gives you some stolen base upside as well with Simon being one of the worst in the league at holding runners.
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.04
Jose Bautista is going to be facing off with a bad lefty at home in the Rogers Centre. In 2015, Bautista exhibited a .363 wOBA against lefties with his peripherals suggesting even better. Bautista is in a 6 game HR drought which may be broken here. As mentioned above, Surkamp has struggled against righties over the course of his entire career and there is no reason to think that will change against one of the best lineups in baseball.
Consider - Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, Josh Reddick
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View Comments
Going to give a serious shout out to the optimizer right now! First time ever doing DFS baseball and overall I am already making a little profit! Great job guys and thanks for making such a user friendly site for the rookies!
Awesome to hear! Congrats!
You will lose your arse if youre dumping all your money daily into tournaments...you need to spend most of it on 50/50s! One tourney lineup a night..and the rest of my money goes into 50/50s and 3 person 2/5/10$ leagues....thought since i had one good night i knew my shitaki...ummm no...every day is different and luck plays such a huge part...placed 47th out of 37k last week...havent placed since...BUT i have won in my 50/50s...Dont get over confident and blow hundreds in two days chasing losses like i did...like in vegas and in DFS it doesnt work!!! Stick to the amount you are comfortable with spending daily...after all there is a butload of games going on daily!
Awesome! That's our whole model. Plain and simple. Make things easier for people. It's all we think about all day and are moving in a direction where our tools and whatnot will become more robust. Exciting things coming.
It's a learning process for sure, the optimizer does help for sure! Sometimes i lean on it too much,well i did early on this week. I decided, i probably should google all these terms "stacking" gpp,tournament etc.. i assumed for the longest time tournaments were these million dollar things, but in fact they are just games with 100+ people where the prize fund is titled towards the top players, thus meaning all the big multiple entry people drop large amounts on games.I am not gonna lie, i am a bottom feeder, if i go in at $3 i feel that's a lot. Once i am ahead of the game, i'll be more open with higher $$ games, but for now.I'm just sticking to the 20-30-100 50/50 games.I think i'm better than 50% of the others out there, and that means profit.
LOL i hate to tell you this...but...the odds of hitting it big are so stacked against you...Why do you think the sharks play upwards of 100 lineups a night? They use fantasy cruncher and other tools to create lottery ticket style entries based on their projections...you always see them atop the leaderbaords... condia, ganadorf, ehafner to name a few...these guys have the know how and the bankroll to pump out winning tickets and you think youre going to win over them? Trust me when i say this...limit your tournament exposure and play 50/50s and small leagues...thats where youre going to make your money... a 2$ ticket in a tourney might yield you 4$....but in a 50/50 you only have to be better than half not a third...ill take my odds on that anyday...would you play blackjack if your odds were to win a third of the time of fifty percent of the time? and you get to pick your cards!! lol
We all think we are better that 50&of ppl out there. I am a small fish also but I am getting better week by week. I find head to heads a better way to learn. 50/50 can be tough when I finish 1st out of a 100 one night then 98th the next. If you win 2 out of every 3 nights you can be considered elite. I find a lot of sharks in the 1 or 2$ 50/50s believe it or not. It's bread and butter for above average players which I hope to be someday soon. I defy prefer head to heads right now and gpps I have really surprised myself. Sometimes you gotta be confident I enter one gpp a night I feel it's only a matter of time before I hit big. Getting better at research and trends and watching a lot of baseball.
This sites optimizer and advice certainly help! Try making a lineup without it/ with it and see how your results turn out! Now that we are a few weeks in the optimizer is starting to heat up! And just because its the optimal lineup doesnt mean its the best!! Plug in a few guys you have hunches about and then let the optimzer do the rest...used this method past few days and it works very well! It definitely makes doing this more fun and less frustrating
I agree, tanaka and roark weren't on the optimizer for me, at least not the default one.. and i played both and that worked out quite well for me :)
Today feels like a Corey Dickerson HR type of day.
Gary, I live in TX as well and plan on using an IP blocker to go around this issue...I suggest you do the same :)
I would love to have tried the optimizer this season, but did not think it was going to benefit me for the short time that we were going to get to play in Texas. I know FD is shutting down May 1st. DK says different, but....Want to wish all fellow players the best. Until Texas gets paid for us to play, that is. Don't give up totally on the Tournament. I am a rookie, kinda, and I hit $1600, on basketball, of all sports. So keep stackin' 'em, and gettin'yours. Peace out brothers.
Hey guys does somebody knows a what time the ARIZONA VS PITT game started yesterday, thanks.
deGrom on an 85 pitch count according to Mets and Arizona game started 8:10 Eastern I believe
Thanks john
Yup. I adjusted his projection last night for about 80% of normal with this news.
Funny you got Kike Hernandez listed at 3rd today 1st yesterday. Listed 2b/OF on DK didn't play him as he's a guy I target vs lefties like madbum couple weeks ago and you had him listed wrong then. Just would make it easier to construct lineups if he was listed properly on days I am targeting him
Yeah. Sorry about that. He's a culprit of being named different things on different sites which screws around at times with our DB. But I have it corrected in our feed now permanently. Sorry again.