Welcome to some Saturday baseball! We have a fun split-slate today with some interesting pitching options. Let's take a look at each slate and how we are going to attack them. Make sure to check out the updates article as it will touch on any breaking news or weather concerns, as well as some more picks!
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Early Slate
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @NYY
FD - 30.21 DK - 16.07
Let's be honest, it is very difficult to find a pitcher you like for the early slate. We have 3 high priced options in Corey Kluber, Masahiro Tanaka and Clay Buchholz. Personally, this early slate is a tournament only one for me. I am not high enough on any pitcher to play cash games. However, I think this is a great tournament slate. Tanaka is my favorite pitcher of all and I think he bring some great upside. The Rays will likely trot out a lineup with only 3 or 4 lefties. Tanaka has been great against righties over the course of his career with a 2.81 xFIP. While Tanaka certainly has a low floor, his ceiling is just as high.
Update: Our system is also spitting out Corey Kluber as a top option. It didn't appear that would be the case during write ups last night. This early slate is rough with the arms.
Consider - Blake Snell, Tanner Roark
Evening Slate
Opponent - SF (Peavy) Park - @SF
FD - 38.31 DK - 21.1
Jose Fernandez and the Marlins will be taking on the Giants in a game with a 7 over/under. This ballpark is just about equal to the one in Miami as both are ranked in the bottom 3rd for hitters. Fernandez has been dominant against both sides of the plate with a career .246 combined wOBA. Fernandez is certainly my favorite cash game pitcher and will have him in plenty or tournament lineups. Fernandez gives you the type of upside to win a tournaments and his strikeout ability gives him some cash game safety.
Opponent - ATL (Chacin) Park - @ATL
FD - 35.93 DK - 19.07
Sure, Wacha will be the cash chalk at this price range. How about a tournament pitcher with some upside? Steven Matz. Matz had an extraordinary game last time out against the Indians with a 10 strikeout performance. While the Braves are pretty good at limiting strikeouts, they trot out enough lefties to give up their fair share. Matz has been a great pitcher in his short major league stint and will look to keep it up here on the road.
Consider - Michael Wacha, Jake Peavy
Early Slate
Opponent - OAK (Bassitt) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.86 DK - 7.67
The Blue Jays will be taking on Chris Bassitt today and will likely send him packing early. It is never a bad idea to get exposure to the Blue Jays on a small slate. Martin has hit righties well over the course of his career with a .326 wOBA and .396 SLG. I look for Martin to get some RBI opportunities and to capitalize on those. I am comfortable with Martin in both cash games and tournaments as he is not reliant on power.
Consider - Josh Phegley
Evening Slate
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.19
Yasmani Grandal will be the first of many Dodgers here in this article. The Dodgers will be facing off with Tyler Chatwood who is a below average right handed pitcher. Chatwood has a combined wOBA of .340 over the course of his career and his peripherals do not suggest any improvement. Look for the Dodgers to get to Chatwood and for Grandal to be in the middle of it all.
Consider - Matt Wieters, Tony Wolters
Early Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.87
Jose Abreu will be the lucky power bat that gets to take on Colby Lewis this week. While Lewis has not been horrible against righties over the past couple years, his peripherals suggest otherwise. With an xFIP over 4.00 in 3 straight years, Colby Lewis is ready for some regression. Abreu has hit righties just as well as lefties in his career and will have a great shot of hitting one out tonight. Lewis has already seen some of the impending doom with 5 home runs given up this year.
Consider - Justin Smoak, David Ortiz
Evening Slate
Opponent - CHC (Lackey) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.58 DK - 8.93
Joey Votto is my favorite first baseman on the slate, and I expect him to be pretty low owned. John Lackey is certainly not a gas can, but I wouldn't call him anything close to an ace either. Votto has struggled early on hitting under .200 but that will not last long. In 2015, Votto hit for a .406 wOBA vs righties, top 10 in the league. Lackey has been an average pitcher against lefties over the past few years with a .326 wOBA. Look for Votto to get back to his regular self at home in a great ballpark.
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @KC
FD - 3.27 DK - 2.63
Eric Hosmer and the Royals will be taking on one of the worst pitchers on the slate, Vance Worley. Worley has been horrible in his last 100 innings against lefties with a .36 wOBA and 4.44 xFIP. Hosmer on the other hand, has picked up his play against righties and will continue to do so. While the ballpark certainly isn't optimal, Hosmer has the power to get it out. I am comfortable with Hosmer in both cash and tournaments as he can score in so many different ways.
Consider - Adrian Gonzalez
Early Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.43
Brett Lawrie is another hitter that gets to take on the one and only Colby Lewis. As mentioned above, Colby Lewis is "due" for some regression this season. I look for the White Sox to have a huge game and Lawrie should be able to get some action. I prefer Lawrie in tournaments as he is a bit power reliant.
Consider - Jason Kipnis, Jed Lowrie
Evening Slate
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.4
Here is your 2nd honorary Dodgers player to be mentioned, Chase Utley. The Dodgers and White Sox are my 2 favorite teams to target today, as i'm sure you can tell by now. Utley has hit righties extremely well over the course of his career as evidenced by his tremendous .367 wOBA. Make sure you have some exposure in cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - PHI (Morton) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.99
Scooter Gennett is a player I love to roster as he always seems to be a little too under owned. I am sure he will be once again with a game in Coors Field. Gennett has hit for a .345 wOBA over the course of his career against righties. I look for Gennett to reach his prime this year and become a consistent option. Charlie Morton is a below average righty who has struggled to limit lefties with a career .376 wOBA against lefties.
Early Slate
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.92 DK - 7.07
Shortstop is a pretty tough position to fill in the early slate with the top options having the worst match ups. However, Semien is looking pretty appealing at a low price around the industry. Semien gives you a ton of power compared to the players around him at the position. J.A. Happ is a soft throwing lefty who struggles to keep the ball in the yard. Let's hope Semien can take advantage of a get ahead fastball or hanging curve and is hitting further up in the lineup.
Consider - Carlos Correa, Tyler Saladino
Evening Slate
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.69 DK - 10.16
Shall I go into the reasons why these Dodgers are such great plays? I won't, but I will go into Seager a little bit. Seager had a huge game last night a homer and a few walks/runs. Seager has entered into the majors as the league's top prospect and has not disappointed. Make sure to jump on Seager while the average fan doesn't recognize the name.
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.48 DK - 6.7
Javier Baez is another player coming off a big game with a homer and a stolen base. Straily is not a good pitcher and the Cubs should definitely be able to get to him. Baez will likely be hitting 6th or 7th and will have plenty of opportunities to drive in some runs. Straily has been very susceptible to the long ball with almost a 1.0 HR/9 rate. Look for Baez to take advantage of the many weaknesses Straily Possesses.
Early Slate
Opponent - MIN (Hughes) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.32 DK - 9.02
Third base is pretty stacked position in the early slate and while all those top guys are in good spots, let's take a look at a sneaky play that should go way under owned. Phil Hughes has exhibited reverse splits over his career and in 2015 gave up a .369 wOBA. Rendon on the other hand, has hit righties well with a .329 wOBA. This is a great recipe for success and I expect Rendon to be overlooked by many. I am comfortable with Rendon in both cash and tournaments but prefer him in tournaments.
Consider - Adrian Beltre, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson
Evening Slate
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.93 DK - 10.29
Franco is coming off a 2 home run game where he was seeing the ball perfectly. As the lone Phillies bright spot, Franco has been shining and will continue to do so. Chase Anderson has been horrible against righties over the past 2 seasons with 13 home runs given up in under 100 innings. I expect Franco to carry over yesterday's game and make a big impact here. Miller Park is only going to help.
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.83 DK - 10.23
While I have recommended a ton of Dodgers lefties, here is a righty. However, it is for good reason. In 2015, Turner smashed righties to the tune of a .390 wOBA and a 153 wRC. Tyler Chatwood has been as bad against righties as he has lefties and Turner will more than welcome Chatwood to the mound in Coors. I am comfortable with Turner in all formats as he will be in a great lineup position.
Early Slate
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.2 DK - 10.56
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.51 DK - 9.22
Some more White Sox, you say? Why yes, that is what happens when Colby Lewis takes the mound. Both Adam and Melky Cabrera are great plays as both have righties to a 150+ wOBA over the past few seasons. If you are looking to stack the White Sox, you have to have these two guys as they are both very important to the team success. Eaton is the leadoff speedster and Melky is the guy they lean on to drive in the runs. In a game with an 8 1/2 over/under, look for the White Sox to score some runs.
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.48 DK - 9.17
Delino Deshields Jr. has been very good against lefties over his short major league career. He will be taking on Carlos Rodon today after Rodon was knocked out in 0.1 innings last time out. While we are not going to expect that again, the Rangers should be able to get some hits and runs against him. Deshields will be right at the forefront of the attack with some power and speed. I am comfortable with Deshields in every format as he can score in so many different ways.
Consider - Bryce Harper, Miguel Sano, Justin Ruggiano
Evening Slate
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.49
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.05 DK - 7.9
Here is another pair of outfielders that are in a tremendous spot. Both of these guys have been seeing the ball very well and have been swinging the bat even better. These guys will likely hit 1st and 2nd and should be able to get the Cubs off to a good start. Another thing I love about both of these players is they give you so many different ways to produce fantasy points. They both have speed and power as well as the great chance to be driven in when they get on base by talented hitters like Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo.
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 14.09 DK - 11.16
Puig is going to be the final Dodgers hitter mentioned and just might be my favorite. Puig is a player that plays off a ton of momentum and he has just that after throwing someone out last night at 3rd from the wall. As mentioned above, Chatwood is evenly bad against both righties and lefties. Puig has hit righties extremely well with a .376 wOBA over the course of his career. Puig is my pick for home run of the night.
Consider - Carlos Gonzalez, Mike Trout, Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson
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View Comments
Did well last night came one player away from a top Gpp finish. Betts and Steven Wright paid off big. Of course it was a guy a paid up for who didn't produce. But hey it happens. I find myself searching for homers to often. Betts had 39 FD points without one. Power upside is big but average and steals can be bigger.
I was impressed with yest. picks, finished top 10 with a solo team thanks to them. Keep it up!
I must be using the optimal lineup tool wrong, because i didn't cash in cheap beginner games , but one. My best lineup did 120 points. on DK and that was harvey,moore.grandal gonzo,forsythe, turner seaker conforto guyer and heyward
You can't just click a button and expect to get paid. Use gut calls and must starts and then combo in the optimizer. Basketball is always so close payzone and not in payzone. Baseball much bigger gap most of the time it's clear if you are going to cash in or not.
I completely understand that John.I supposed i'm just frustrated with my start. Will keep at it and keep learning i suppose :)
This is the exact attitude you should have. Once you think you know it all and start blaming everyone else is the exact minute you stop improving your game.
keep your head up ??
Optimizer worked well for me last night. On FD and DK. Thanks fellas.
Small sample but Semien 7 for 10 vs Happ and Miggy bigger sample 20 for 35 vs Kluber
I like Semien, though may use Rollins hitting second at same FD price.
We don't factor BVP on sample size. But that Miggy line is impressive. That being said, I'm not playing him.
Don't put a lot of stock in BvP because of sample sizes but that one sticks out and Kluber been roughed up by Tigers as well
Thanks John...wow, Cabrera pretty much owns Kluber. That is very helpful for early slate. Semien only $100 cheaper on DK than Correa. Any thoughts on which to roster between Correa and Semien?
I would lean Correa in cash certainly. However, that price difference is so small so I would expect Semien to be VERY low owned.
There is no magic and you still have to know the game and have instincts. Not just clicking a button and cashing in...good luck.
Thoughts on Anibal Sanchez as a gpp play? (early only) pitching is so ugly on that slate
Agreed. I don't mind him mostly because I hate everyone equally on this early slate.
Splits do not look good, but not paying up for Buchholz or Rodon so I am rolling with him. Cleveland line up actually looks pretty weak regardless of them stacking lefties.
So.. Instincts help you select Welington Castillo yesterday? Imo it's just luck.
I don't typically play the later slates, but did yesterday and Castillo was a nice system return for sure.
Agree with donovan.