Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Blowing out in Coors!
As I write this, the wind in Coors is howling out to right at around 30 MPH. Make sure you keep an eye on this as there are also some isolated showers surrounding the area. I will update here if anything breaks. As of now, I am attacking this game as if there were no weather concerns.
Note - The Rockies and Dodgers are great stacks in Coors Field. You don't need me to tell you that! Here are some stacks that should be a little bit lower owned.
Chicago Cubs
Are the Cubs ever not a great tournament stack? They will be taking on Dan Straily and the Reds tonight in the Great American "Smallpark". I expect the Cubs to get to Straily early and often and score some runs. To add on, the Reds have manned the worst bullpen thus far and are basically just trying to see what sticks at this point. While that may work against a team like the Brewers or Padres, there is no chance that works against the Cubs. My favorite 6 man stack for the Cubs is Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. If you want to be super contrarian, go with some Addison Russell and fade Rizzo for a 1st baseman with just as much upside.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are going to be facing off with the one and only Colby Lewis. Lewis is due for some regressions and that could certainly come here against the speedy and powerful White Sox. My 6 favorite Sox are Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, Cabrera, Lawrie and Saladino. While Colby Lewis has not been horrible against either righties or lefties, his peripherals suggest otherwise. With an xFIP over 4.00, Lewis is ready to implode this year. This ballpark is only going to help with the wind blowing out as I write this. Make sure all these guys are in the lineup and plug them in.
Opponent - MIA (Fernandez) Park - @SF
FD - 31.28 DK - 15.76
While Peavy isn't the sexy option he was a few years ago, he still has a little bit left in the tank. The Marlins are a team that can be taken advantage of if you can get past Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon. In 2015, Peavy showed his ability by keeping his xFIP below 3.8 against both sides of the plate. While I won't advise Peavy in tournaments due to lack of upside, I could get behind Peavy in cash games if you are looking to pay up for some bats in good spots.
Note - Not going to mention any Dodgers or Rockies here. They are all in a very good spot in Coors Field. Here are some guys that will go a bit under owned.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.93 DK - 10.29
Franco and Chase Anderson are both players with reverse splits. Anderson gave up a.325 wOBA and 11 home runs to righties last year while Franco displayed a .393 wOBA against righties. Franco will be going from an average park to a great one in Miller Park that will only help him get one out today. I look for Franco to get a hold of one and let it fly today.
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.87
I could of put a number of different White Sox here, but let's go with the power bat. Abreu is another player with some severe reverse splits. In 2015, Abreu hit righties to the tune of a .384 wOBA. His peripherals suggest he will only improve as his hard hit rate was a bit higher. Colby Lewis on the other hand, has already seen some regression with 5 home runs given up this year in under 20 innings. Look for the White Sox to pile on here.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
If anyone has any questions, comment below and I will get right to you! Let's have a good Saturday!
Saladino not in lineup
I didn't see Wacha in the optimizer. Is he still pitching for the Cards tonight?
Ah yeah. Sorry. Fixed this. Something coming funky through the feed but I corrected.
Safe to fade Astros/Sox in early slate? I stacked White Sox and went Harper. The only thing I am back and forth on is Correa or Semien?
I don't think it is necessarily "safe" but that doesn't really matter in tournaments. I would go with Correa if you think your lineup is contrarian enough.
I don't like that we can't play Snell on DK. That would have been a good arm to run out there.
I agree. It is definitely a bummer.
The pitching on this early slate has me really concerned. I would definitely hedge some if possible if playing on DK. Our system has Roark as that second SP. I don't mind it considering all other options are bad. But I'm running a couple of different scenarios.
Yea definitely sucks kinda hope snell bombs today so his price and ownership is down when we can play him dudes gonna be a stud
I'm taking Tanaka and Rodon for the early slate. I'm going back and forth on hitters but I'm thinking WAS/CWS stack.
Like some Washington righties today was thinking Ramos an Zimmerman to go with Bryce is looking pretty good
Anyone else like Miggy to take kluber yard today? He hits him really well in his career which I don't usually put a ton of stock into but in this case it's one of the greatest hitters ever in Miggy (career .321 hitter) so has me on the fence
One issue I have with BVP (among the many issues I have with it) is that it ignores general team success (or lack thereof) in overweighting a certain player. For instance, Kinsler is awful for his career against Kluber. This effects Miggy as it increases the likelihood out increased outs and less plate appearances for the latter.
Unfortunately, the Tigers middle of the order have owned Kluber so this example isn't perfect (still too small a sample size imho), but just because a certain batter "owns" a pitcher doesn't spell an increased chance of success in the aggregate.
This is an oversimplification of course. Over the long term the Tigers have a much less likely chance of success against Kluber than most other pitchers in baseball just from the simple fact that Kluber is significantly better than most arms. Just trying to point out one of the myriad of issues in basing assumptions on this stat.