Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/22/16 Opening Round

Friday brings the next batch of first round Game 3s. These series shift to the lower seeds’ court, increasing the likelihood of closer games. At least, that’s what we’d expect. Thursday’s early games were both romps for the road team. That would indicate that home court advantage isn’t a big factor when significantly lower seeds are the teams at home. We have some information (or hardly any at all if you’re a statistician), but not many conclusions to be drawn. Perhaps the appropriate response is to focus on matchups and minutes. That’s really what we do in DFS to begin with.

I want to point out that you’ll find exactly zero Spurs and Grizzlies recommended. The blowout risk, dicey rotations, and simple overall mismatch are too much. You’ll also find a pretty tight range of salaries. This is not the night to hunt for punts, as the options are too unpredictable for cash games, the focus of these recommendations.

Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons

Analysis

Cleveland followed up a close win in Game 1 with a much more comfortable one in Game 2, blowing things open in the third quarter. The Cavs are only getting four points in this game after giving eleven in the first two, indicating that our friends in the desert and offshore think the Pistons are likely to keep things close again. That suggests plenty of run for the regular rotation players, even more for the guys who see the most court time given that rotations are tighter in the playoffs. In the last game, the Pistons ran their starters most of the game, but they weren’t very effective. The Cavs Big 3 all got their minutes, with LeBron predictably getting a massive 40. It’s the playoffs. Cleveland is just the better team, dampening the Pistons’ upside. The Cavs, meanwhile, don’t go very deep with dependable game-to-game plays. While this isn’t the no-fly-zone down in Memphis, there aren’t a ton of good value opportunities in this game. You’re basically looking at the usual suspects.

Top Value Plays

LeBron James - FD 10400 DK 10700
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 50.77 DK Proj. Pts - 52.78

Starting with the King isn’t about a fantastic multiple. We’re looking for a 5x. That’s great at his price point, but not overwhelming. The larger point is the price itself. You have to spend your salary somewhere, and their simply aren’t very many options on Friday. 5x is plenty for a $10k+ player, and when combined with a second-story floor and few roster structure alternatives, you should see LeBron in a ton of lineups. I simply don’t see where else to reliably spend your cash.

Andre Drummond - FD 7600 DK 7500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 42.89 DK Proj. Pts - 43.69

After two underwhelming performances to start the series, many owners may look to fade Drummond. It may be counter-intuitive, but we like him to pick it up back in Detroit. That outlook is in line with the DFS market, as his price has risen on DK despite scraping past the 4x mark each time out. What changes here? He fared poorly from the floor in Game 1, then went a brutal 4-for-16 from the stripe in game 2, bad even by his 35% standards. A couple more makes and he’s closing in on 5x. He also failed to reach double-digit rebounds for the first time in a month. Between the two, I think it’s reasonable to expect a bounce-back performance. The DFSR system likes him as the Center of the night on both sites, and the overall top player on FD. Even if you’re inclined to look elsewhere, no one’s close.

Reggie Jackson - FD 6800 DK 6700
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 34.79 DK Proj. Pts - 36.14

Reggie Jackson is in a virtual dead heat for top Pts/$ play at the point with Jeff Teague (see below). Like LeBron, he has a high floor, in fact an outrageous 5x for some time now. Unlike LeBron, at a dead-average salary on FD, he comes with a high ceiling. If that salary hadn’t risen 7% since the start of the playoffs, he’d carry a ridiculous projection multiple, and be the play of the night. As it is, he should be in most lineups.

Kevin Love - FD 7300 DK 7700
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 37.57 DK Proj. Pts - 40.21

K-Love is the top play of the night at power forward on FD, and a solid option on DK. He didn’t shoot very well in Game 2 and still just about hit 5x. The DFSR projections like him to exceed that against an underwhelming Pistons front line. He also carries a high floor (the theme among the players in this game), and some upside at this price. There aren’t many non-punt options at PF on Friday, and Love should fit well in the rounded salary structure you’re likely to employ.

Tobias Harris - FD 6500 DK 5900
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88

The second of three options at PF, Harris is the least expensive choice. He hasn’t shot well in the series, yet gone over 5x in each game. The DFSR projections show him carrying a slightly lower floor among the viable alternatives, but more upside potential given his price. Personally, I think his floor is higher, as his minutes were suppressed by foul trouble in game 2. If he gets back to high-30s, I have a hard time seeing him below a 5x performance. On DK he carries a steep discount, but is listed at SF. Fortunately, that’s not a strong position on Friday, and he’s so much better than the alternatives that phrases like “big gap” or “far and away” don’t do the numbers justice.

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics

Analysis

After scraping by in Game 1, the Hawks cruised in Game 2, holding the Celtics to seven first quarter points, then never allowing them to make a real comeback bid. The Celtics probably missed key cog Avery Bradley, who is out for the remainder of the series after going down in Game 1. Terry Rozier picked up Bradley’s minutes in Game 2 and played acceptably well. The blowout leaves uncertainty about the Bradley injury's series-long impact and what the C’s post-Bradley rotations will really look like. They may have to further adjust to his absence to get back in the series. I’m expecting them to tighten their rotations this time around, with less Rozier leading to more minutes for the rest of the Celtics backcourt. More minutes will translate to more production. The Hawks starters got some extra bench time due to the nature of the game, so there’s no reason to expect that they won’t revert to typical levels in Game 3. That leads to an expectation of typical performances from a team with several dependable DFS options. The net result is a game where an unusually large number of players look to be good roster choices.

Top Value Plays

Marcus Smart - FD 4900 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 26.67 DK Proj. Pts - 28.43

I hate to lead with Smart. His projected floor is so low that you can barely make it out. On the other hand, you rarely see an 8x within one standard deviation of the mean (read: his ceiling is so high I’m at a loss for adequate, decipherable descriptors - see?). He’ll be in the starting lineup and get healthy minutes, and his peripheral stats are consistent enough that I really don’t think the statistical floor is in play. Marcus’ 1-for-11 in Game 2 was a lot like Drummond’s FT performance, abysmal even for a guy who shot 35% from the floor for the season. Don’t look for a repeat. He carries the second highest Pts/$ expectation for all players on FD, and the third-highest non-punt multiple on DK. Note that he’s a SG on FD and a PG on DK. Then, trust the projections and do the Smart thing.

Jeff Teague - FD 7000 DK 6800
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.97 DK Proj. Pts - 37.16

Jeff Teague is the top option at point guard on FD and second only to Smart on DK (due to the latter’s positional distinction). In Game 2 he put up a 5x with only 75% of the Game 1 minutes that lead to an 8x. We’re not projecting another outing at that level, but he played well enough down the stretch to reaffirm his hold on Atlanta’s PG minutes, and we’re expecting another game with mid-to-high 30’s run. If that’s the case, he’s worthy of his multiple and place in Friday’s pecking order.

Kyle Korver - FD 3900 DK 3700
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 19.06 DK Proj. Pts - 22.04

Evan Turner - FD 5200 DK 6000
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.76 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59

I’m listing these guys together because they play the same position and present a certain symmetry. On DK, Korver is the play of the night at SG and overall. On FD, which doesn’t reward hitting from outside, he’s simply not in the same league as the top two options. Turner presents the opposite disparity. He is neck-and-neck with Smart as the top SG on FD, where you pretty much have to pair them. On DK I can’t even present him as a truly viable alternative. Each should be in all lineups on one site and none on the other.

Jae Crowder - FD 5700 DK 6300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.19 DK Proj. Pts - 30.77

If you took a glance at his game log, you’d think the following statement couldn’t be supported: Jae Crowder carries the highest floor at SF on Friday. His fantasy production shows that he put up a 2x and a 1x in the last two weeks. If you keep looking for just a second, you’ll see that these results were a function of the Brad Stevens Rotating Rotations Effect (read: fluctuations in minutes). Given Bradley’s absence, there will be ample minutes and shots, and Crowder should do well with them. In Game 2 he made a single of his nine field goal attempts, and still topped 4x. In Game 1, he shot sixteen times and hit just five times, and nearly posted a 7x. I like his chances to earn value, and imagine what he could do if he got all the way up to his seasonal FG% of 43.7. He’s the SF play of the night on FD, where he has a 10% discount relative to DK. On the latter, he’s a decent option at a position without many.

Paul Millsap - FD 8500 DK 8400
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.7 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52

The versatile Millsap is the third PF alternative referenced above. He’s also the pricey one. On FD, you need two players at the position, and can reasonably choose among Love, Harris, and Millsap based on preference and salary needs. On DK, he’s the top PF option, and I won’t mention any other outside of him and Love.

Kent Bazemore - FD 5500 DK 5600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 28.98

Yet another Hawks starter, the Baze presents a nice SF option at a notably (and noted) thin position. He’s an enigma. He’s athletic, makes some dynamic plays, and spikes to ridiculous multiples. He just doesn’t do any one thing consistently well. He has hit the boards hard lately, yet possesses a seasonal average of 5 per game – not exciting for a forward, even a Small one. Sometimes he dishes out 5 or 6 assists, high for a forward, but sometimes none. I guess he’s a “glue guy” but glue guys don’t occasionally spike to 8x, right? I’ll stop overthinking it. He’s the number two SF option on FD and could be paired with LeBron if Crowder’s recent 1x/2x performances spook you. He’s among the top choices on DK, and has the highest floor of the bunch. Sometimes more Baze is in fact more.

Isaiah Thomas - FD 7900 DK 7900
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57

The 21st Century version of Isaiah Thomas is an excellent player, and I’d virtually guarantee better liked than the 20th century version without having a clue of his reputation among his peers (people often forget to ask why Isaiah v1.0 wasn’t on the Dream Team – it was because everybody, absolutely everyone, hated him, some say even his teammates). Irrespective of all that, v2.0 is a very good but not top option at PG on Friday. The DFSR system clearly indicates that you should pair Teague and Jackson on FD, and choose between them on DK. Thomas isn’t terribly far off though, and if you want to spend up, it’s justifiable. Just be aware that the cost reduces his upside.

Al Horford - FD 7800 DK 7800
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 38.63 DK Proj. Pts - 39.29

If you just won’t play Drummond because you don’t trust either his recent performances or the analysis above, Horford is your option. On FD, he’s truly the only other place to go. On DK he’s the only non-punt alternative. He’d be comparable to Drummond on DK if his price hadn’t jumped 15% during the playoffs. It has and he isn’t, so all non-doubters should slot in Drummond and spend the modest savings at another position. If you insist, sacrifice average, floor, and ceiling, and go with Horford.

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies

Analysis

The analysis here is short and sweet (I’d compare it to the number of picks, but you can’t divide by zero). The Spurs are double-digit favorites on the road in the playoffs. I could stop there, but won't. The Grizzlies were a scrappy, determined bunch who managed to get in the playoffs despite missing their best (and only All-Star caliber) two players. The Spurs would be the talk of the league but for the Dubs, making this a monumental mismatch. Venue shouldn’t make much difference. The Grizzlies don’t have anyone we can say is likely to perform well, and the Spurs don’t have anyone we can say is likely to be on the court long enough to produce well. Hence the (effective) blank.

Top Value Plays

Nothing to see here. Move along.

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