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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/22/16 Opening Round
Friday brings the next batch of first round Game 3s. These series shift to the lower seeds’ court, increasing the likelihood of closer games. At least, that’s what we’d expect. Thursday’s early games were both romps for the road team. That would indicate that home court advantage isn’t a big factor when significantly lower seeds are the teams at home. We have some information (or hardly any at all if you’re a statistician), but not many conclusions to be drawn. Perhaps the appropriate response is to focus on matchups and minutes. That’s really what we do in DFS to begin with.
I want to point out that you’ll find exactly zero Spurs and Grizzlies recommended. The blowout risk, dicey rotations, and simple overall mismatch are too much. You’ll also find a pretty tight range of salaries. This is not the night to hunt for punts, as the options are too unpredictable for cash games, the focus of these recommendations.
Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Analysis
Cleveland followed up a close win in Game 1 with a much more comfortable one in Game 2, blowing things open in the third quarter. The Cavs are only getting four points in this game after giving eleven in the first two, indicating that our friends in the desert and offshore think the Pistons are likely to keep things close again. That suggests plenty of run for the regular rotation players, even more for the guys who see the most court time given that rotations are tighter in the playoffs. In the last game, the Pistons ran their starters most of the game, but they weren’t very effective. The Cavs Big 3 all got their minutes, with LeBron predictably getting a massive 40. It’s the playoffs. Cleveland is just the better team, dampening the Pistons’ upside. The Cavs, meanwhile, don’t go very deep with dependable game-to-game plays. While this isn’t the no-fly-zone down in Memphis, there aren’t a ton of good value opportunities in this game. You’re basically looking at the usual suspects.
Top Value Plays
LeBron James - FD 10400 DK 10700
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 50.77 DK Proj. Pts - 52.78
Starting with the King isn’t about a fantastic multiple. We’re looking for a 5x. That’s great at his price point, but not overwhelming. The larger point is the price itself. You have to spend your salary somewhere, and their simply aren’t very many options on Friday. 5x is plenty for a $10k+ player, and when combined with a second-story floor and few roster structure alternatives, you should see LeBron in a ton of lineups. I simply don’t see where else to reliably spend your cash.
Andre Drummond - FD 7600 DK 7500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 42.89 DK Proj. Pts - 43.69
After two underwhelming performances to start the series, many owners may look to fade Drummond. It may be counter-intuitive, but we like him to pick it up back in Detroit. That outlook is in line with the DFS market, as his price has risen on DK despite scraping past the 4x mark each time out. What changes here? He fared poorly from the floor in Game 1, then went a brutal 4-for-16 from the stripe in game 2, bad even by his 35% standards. A couple more makes and he’s closing in on 5x. He also failed to reach double-digit rebounds for the first time in a month. Between the two, I think it’s reasonable to expect a bounce-back performance. The DFSR system likes him as the Center of the night on both sites, and the overall top player on FD. Even if you’re inclined to look elsewhere, no one’s close.
Reggie Jackson - FD 6800 DK 6700
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 34.79 DK Proj. Pts - 36.14
Reggie Jackson is in a virtual dead heat for top Pts/$ play at the point with Jeff Teague (see below). Like LeBron, he has a high floor, in fact an outrageous 5x for some time now. Unlike LeBron, at a dead-average salary on FD, he comes with a high ceiling. If that salary hadn’t risen 7% since the start of the playoffs, he’d carry a ridiculous projection multiple, and be the play of the night. As it is, he should be in most lineups.
Kevin Love - FD 7300 DK 7700
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 37.57 DK Proj. Pts - 40.21
K-Love is the top play of the night at power forward on FD, and a solid option on DK. He didn’t shoot very well in Game 2 and still just about hit 5x. The DFSR projections like him to exceed that against an underwhelming Pistons front line. He also carries a high floor (the theme among the players in this game), and some upside at this price. There aren’t many non-punt options at PF on Friday, and Love should fit well in the rounded salary structure you’re likely to employ.
Tobias Harris - FD 6500 DK 5900
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88
The second of three options at PF, Harris is the least expensive choice. He hasn’t shot well in the series, yet gone over 5x in each game. The DFSR projections show him carrying a slightly lower floor among the viable alternatives, but more upside potential given his price. Personally, I think his floor is higher, as his minutes were suppressed by foul trouble in game 2. If he gets back to high-30s, I have a hard time seeing him below a 5x performance. On DK he carries a steep discount, but is listed at SF. Fortunately, that’s not a strong position on Friday, and he’s so much better than the alternatives that phrases like “big gap” or “far and away” don’t do the numbers justice.
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Analysis
After scraping by in Game 1, the Hawks cruised in Game 2, holding the Celtics to seven first quarter points, then never allowing them to make a real comeback bid. The Celtics probably missed key cog Avery Bradley, who is out for the remainder of the series after going down in Game 1. Terry Rozier picked up Bradley’s minutes in Game 2 and played acceptably well. The blowout leaves uncertainty about the Bradley injury's series-long impact and what the C’s post-Bradley rotations will really look like. They may have to further adjust to his absence to get back in the series. I’m expecting them to tighten their rotations this time around, with less Rozier leading to more minutes for the rest of the Celtics backcourt. More minutes will translate to more production. The Hawks starters got some extra bench time due to the nature of the game, so there’s no reason to expect that they won’t revert to typical levels in Game 3. That leads to an expectation of typical performances from a team with several dependable DFS options. The net result is a game where an unusually large number of players look to be good roster choices.
Top Value Plays
Marcus Smart - FD 4900 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 26.67 DK Proj. Pts - 28.43
I hate to lead with Smart. His projected floor is so low that you can barely make it out. On the other hand, you rarely see an 8x within one standard deviation of the mean (read: his ceiling is so high I’m at a loss for adequate, decipherable descriptors - see?). He’ll be in the starting lineup and get healthy minutes, and his peripheral stats are consistent enough that I really don’t think the statistical floor is in play. Marcus’ 1-for-11 in Game 2 was a lot like Drummond’s FT performance, abysmal even for a guy who shot 35% from the floor for the season. Don’t look for a repeat. He carries the second highest Pts/$ expectation for all players on FD, and the third-highest non-punt multiple on DK. Note that he’s a SG on FD and a PG on DK. Then, trust the projections and do the Smart thing.
Jeff Teague - FD 7000 DK 6800
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.97 DK Proj. Pts - 37.16
Jeff Teague is the top option at point guard on FD and second only to Smart on DK (due to the latter’s positional distinction). In Game 2 he put up a 5x with only 75% of the Game 1 minutes that lead to an 8x. We’re not projecting another outing at that level, but he played well enough down the stretch to reaffirm his hold on Atlanta’s PG minutes, and we’re expecting another game with mid-to-high 30’s run. If that’s the case, he’s worthy of his multiple and place in Friday’s pecking order.
Kyle Korver - FD 3900 DK 3700
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 19.06 DK Proj. Pts - 22.04
Evan Turner - FD 5200 DK 6000
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.76 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59
I’m listing these guys together because they play the same position and present a certain symmetry. On DK, Korver is the play of the night at SG and overall. On FD, which doesn’t reward hitting from outside, he’s simply not in the same league as the top two options. Turner presents the opposite disparity. He is neck-and-neck with Smart as the top SG on FD, where you pretty much have to pair them. On DK I can’t even present him as a truly viable alternative. Each should be in all lineups on one site and none on the other.
Jae Crowder - FD 5700 DK 6300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.19 DK Proj. Pts - 30.77
If you took a glance at his game log, you’d think the following statement couldn’t be supported: Jae Crowder carries the highest floor at SF on Friday. His fantasy production shows that he put up a 2x and a 1x in the last two weeks. If you keep looking for just a second, you’ll see that these results were a function of the Brad Stevens Rotating Rotations Effect (read: fluctuations in minutes). Given Bradley’s absence, there will be ample minutes and shots, and Crowder should do well with them. In Game 2 he made a single of his nine field goal attempts, and still topped 4x. In Game 1, he shot sixteen times and hit just five times, and nearly posted a 7x. I like his chances to earn value, and imagine what he could do if he got all the way up to his seasonal FG% of 43.7. He’s the SF play of the night on FD, where he has a 10% discount relative to DK. On the latter, he’s a decent option at a position without many.
Paul Millsap - FD 8500 DK 8400
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.7 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52
The versatile Millsap is the third PF alternative referenced above. He’s also the pricey one. On FD, you need two players at the position, and can reasonably choose among Love, Harris, and Millsap based on preference and salary needs. On DK, he’s the top PF option, and I won’t mention any other outside of him and Love.
Kent Bazemore - FD 5500 DK 5600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 28.98
Yet another Hawks starter, the Baze presents a nice SF option at a notably (and noted) thin position. He’s an enigma. He’s athletic, makes some dynamic plays, and spikes to ridiculous multiples. He just doesn’t do any one thing consistently well. He has hit the boards hard lately, yet possesses a seasonal average of 5 per game – not exciting for a forward, even a Small one. Sometimes he dishes out 5 or 6 assists, high for a forward, but sometimes none. I guess he’s a “glue guy” but glue guys don’t occasionally spike to 8x, right? I’ll stop overthinking it. He’s the number two SF option on FD and could be paired with LeBron if Crowder’s recent 1x/2x performances spook you. He’s among the top choices on DK, and has the highest floor of the bunch. Sometimes more Baze is in fact more.
Isaiah Thomas - FD 7900 DK 7900
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57
The 21st Century version of Isaiah Thomas is an excellent player, and I’d virtually guarantee better liked than the 20th century version without having a clue of his reputation among his peers (people often forget to ask why Isaiah v1.0 wasn’t on the Dream Team – it was because everybody, absolutely everyone, hated him, some say even his teammates). Irrespective of all that, v2.0 is a very good but not top option at PG on Friday. The DFSR system clearly indicates that you should pair Teague and Jackson on FD, and choose between them on DK. Thomas isn’t terribly far off though, and if you want to spend up, it’s justifiable. Just be aware that the cost reduces his upside.
Al Horford - FD 7800 DK 7800
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 38.63 DK Proj. Pts - 39.29
If you just won’t play Drummond because you don’t trust either his recent performances or the analysis above, Horford is your option. On FD, he’s truly the only other place to go. On DK he’s the only non-punt alternative. He’d be comparable to Drummond on DK if his price hadn’t jumped 15% during the playoffs. It has and he isn’t, so all non-doubters should slot in Drummond and spend the modest savings at another position. If you insist, sacrifice average, floor, and ceiling, and go with Horford.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Analysis
The analysis here is short and sweet (I’d compare it to the number of picks, but you can’t divide by zero). The Spurs are double-digit favorites on the road in the playoffs. I could stop there, but won't. The Grizzlies were a scrappy, determined bunch who managed to get in the playoffs despite missing their best (and only All-Star caliber) two players. The Spurs would be the talk of the league but for the Dubs, making this a monumental mismatch. Venue shouldn’t make much difference. The Grizzlies don’t have anyone we can say is likely to perform well, and the Spurs don’t have anyone we can say is likely to be on the court long enough to produce well. Hence the (effective) blank.
Top Value Plays
Nothing to see here. Move along.
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image sources
- Patty Mills, Boris Diaw, Andre Drummond: (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
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Thoughts on Amir as a value play with olynk likely out again?
i gotta laugh at the spurs game comment because 2 Players from that last game were in the winning line up on the GPP’s on fanduel both Zach & Jaymychal put up good FSPTS and won in the tournaments
These picks are geared towards cash lineups, hence the heading “value plays.” That means a focus on predictable multiples and safety, though not every pick fits that mold. Two (or more) players from this game could well be in large-tourney-winning lneups. For help identifying tourney suggestions, focus on the numbers available through the suscriiptions.
Weren’t there were only 2 games that night? If so, had to go with Spur or Griz. Now that I said, a Spur &/or Griz will be in tonight’s winning LU! =D
Definitely going with Amir somewhere. What about Smart potentially being out or limited to injury?
I like Johnson if Olynyk sits, and we have to make some assumptions to generate comprehensive player projections. In both cases check back for news as their value is injury dependent.
Yea- I feel like some guys are using the optimizer soley for a GPP. This is a mistake. The optimizer is built for safe 50-50 plays with decent upside. For GPP’s you need to tinker with the optimizer a bit.
$$$$BOOM$$$$ Crushed NBA and early slate!! Thanks guys!
Yea so did I . Nice night for most of us. 11 out of my 17 lineups cashed in the 2$ GPP. My best lineup finished 60th out of the 125,000 entrants.
As for tonight. I think with Evan Turner being slotted to start, he has a slight edge to me over smart. I’m certainly rolling with both turner and smart in most of my GPP’s but if I had to pick one, I’m rolling with turner for my lineup iterations.
“Can’t recommend anyone from Spurs-Memphis” ……optimizer telling me to play Xavier munford as my second pg for a stunning 17.7 pts. Wait, what? Lol
So… delete munford from the optimizer if you dont like it. Seems to be the same folks complaining day after day.
What I’m saying is don’t say in free picks you basically can’t in good conscience recommend anyone from that game due to risk, then in the product people pay a premium for have it spit out a shitty player from that same game. Not complaining but an observation. How to make a product better=point out flaws with said product so they may get corrected
In no way are the picks meant to be misleading. We typically don’t run optimal lineups ahead of writing the picks, rather giving out a larger sample of ideas/ plays. The Munford thing the system honing in on a guy who’s been getting minutes coming on the very cheap.
You’ve been questioning the optimizer almost every day now. and frankly, I appreciate the premium product spitting out different options than the free write ups. That’s kinda the point. And again its about pts/$ value
Hell yeah I’m gonna question a product I paid for that has had less than desirable returns so far
Maybe you should learn how to use it. Did you watch the videos or read the ebooks? If others are winning and you aren’t, sounds like operator errors.
Where is the free tool? I want to check it out. I just opted out of the Pro-tool until Football season. Thanks. Love the board and all the comments. Horrid night last night BTW. T. Thompson is a turd and I will NEVER use him again. He is ridiculous. What are we thinking about I. Thomas tonight? Bounce back from a deplorable game the other night?
Is anybody having trouble with the optimizer working? When I click it it just spins and spins but nothing happens
Craig,
Sent you an email.
Yes I am having the same problem! When the lineups do appear there is no option to save for import…
We’ve had to disable Chrome extension while we redevelop to meet new FD and DK Ts and Cs related to third party importing
Just posted last nights lineup results on my twitter page. Please take a look. Start following the posts here using my custom spreadsheet with DFSR projections and WIN on FantasyAces!
Thank you DFSR for all the hard work you put into your projections!
Everybody callllmmm down! lol a lot will change in 9 hours! Munford allows bigger plays and he has good value. IMO
The optimizer crushed it last night – 311 or 312? would’ve won 700, if I had used it. Whoops. 🙁
And a big shout out to the optimizer for early MLB too yesterday. Made my day. Didn’t believe in the picks until my hitters went nuts and those ‘other’ pitchers tanked bad.
Doug have you ever thought about having a message board where only the paid members can comment , could benefit those who pay with quicker responses and the ability to share suggestions with fewer people leading to less ties in the tourney . IMO. I do however see the benefit of this board it led to me joining the site so I guess it’s a win /lose idea
This is on our short term development list 100%. We are moving in a way where we will be more technologically agile. This chat / forum component is near the top of the list.
I like the sounds of that too.
Agreed.
oof, i’ve been brutal lately. big time losing streak. so run away from everything i say.
But watch out for Jerebko tonight. Celtics desperately need more shooting with the loss of Avery Bradley. Assuming Olynyk is out (reports make him seem doubtful), Jerebko will get minutes as a floor spacing big. He’s literally the only one they have at the moment. At $2,300 on DK he could throw up a ridiculous multiple.
Yea- a paid members board would be ideal.
See response above
Exciting stuff. I think it should be plastered as a premium option. While I see how it could take away from these comments (though I dont think it will too much) It should entice the non playing members to pony up for the real advice. Theres a core of us who have been cashing pretty consistently from DFSR. I know we are all excited to share our info a little more privately
Lol
big night last night cashed in 350 on one lineup , pretty much ran with the optimizer and some gut picks ..Thanks you guys again
Paid members board would mean less traffic, less player discussions, etc. I would never post my lineups on any site, paid or free.. but I do enjoy and appreciate the discussions that are had here. #FreeForumCampaign
I also cashed last night on DraftKings!
Thoughts on Ginobili tonight anyone?
Id say leave him on your bench as hes not playing tonight. Nor are the spurs
Some one has to score and using him as a punt is a reasonable choice I feel.
Sarcasm btw the way. Feel I should mention that haha. I wouldnt touch anyone from the spurs as they will have a low scoring game locked up by the 3rd q
No, I get ya and agree. Thanks.
I can chime in that private forum. Great idea. Hey Cory, I am going to have Ginobli in a few of my line ups tonight. Right now I am primarily playing GPP’s due to the short slates and ROI margins. Kind of feast or famine for NBA playoffs.
Cheers!
I think duncan is a sneaky gpp center. rolling with 25 lineups tonight, he’ll be in 2 or 3
Crowder/Drummond or love/Randolph?
Idk about the rest of you, but if it wasn’t for this forum, which is free, I would of never signed up for pro. It’s called marketing. That’s why there’s one forum.
Would love a private forum. Mostly because we’d be less likely to get the turd who feels compelled to come on here and post straight up false info that you sort of still have to track down to see if it’s true or not. Waste of time..
Heck, I’d love two private forums per sport. One for CASH game players and one for GPP players. Picks being for GPP or CASH is one of the hardest things to sift through with the picks and the tips/picks in the comments.
Korver and Bazemore or Manu and Crowder? Thoughts?
Wow. The dix are on here today. I paid my $30 I want a private chat room to get away from these peons. Can’t share our advice blah blah. Maybe a private jet w the optimizer too? Whatever, eryone thinks they are getting screwed, like you aren’t able to chat bc they may give out the million dollar lineup as if that’s the “real picks”, those dumb ppl just use whatever players, but we kno the future & who’s shot will fall bc we paid $30. Errr. Ruining a cool comment section w mostly cool ppl. Go to godaddy, put up $1.99, buy a domain & let onky the elite members chat there with you then.
Anyway, to the cool ppl on here who don’t think their above other ppl due to their optimizer (like me), Disclaimer: Not a pro picker haha, but my thoughts (pretty well lately)…on a public comment section
Top Play Tonight: Look to the D & DRUMMOND (Reggie right there tied w him too) they’re home in a close series lookin to give their fans a big win.
Top Value Guy: Korver as mentioned by Doug is one, but he’s a tough guy to project. He’s either a 6/2/1 guy or blows up like 28/5/7. Never kno what Kyle you’re gonna get. So my guy is VINCE CARTER, he’s home & somebody has to score points regardless of the outcome. $3200 on DK, only needs to put up a 18/4/4 night to be well worth the pick. Even just 20 FPP he’s worth it. Stanley J & Richard Jefferson shouldn’t be slept on either. Both have seen heavy min, especially RJ who’s been playing goid ball on the floor 15-20m in both games to save Bron Bron’s legs for the post season, but if Detroit keeps playing this way, a bucket or 2 away from winning, they may be forced to run Bron Bron 40+min but not tonight bc they’re still up 2-0.
Top Sleeper Tonight: Z-BO. Again, somebody has to score & Z-Bo & Vince will prob be the top scorers, & rebounder for Z-Bo.
Tonight’s Must Play: I have 2… TOBIAS HARRIS & JAE CROWDER. Both for the simple fact their floor is very high & even if a somewhat limited ceiling, the ceiling is high.
Just my thoughts, no optimizer or other site info, just my thoughts w a good amount of research about Game 3’s, who tends to play big in their matchups based on opponent & location etc. I do agree w Doug about SA, they’re the most impossible team for fantasy play. Who knows what is gon hapoen, Aldridge may be a 50 FPP guy or an 18. Crazy. If I had to pick one Spur, I’d go Ginnoblli bc he loves being on the floor, Pop gives him min, & he can put up good pts/assist combos to give him 3x-4x value most of the time esp in playoffs. Good luck to everyone, let us all get a piece of the pie regardless if you paid for DFSR or not. Haha. Peace & Love.
Amen dude….well said.
I stopped paying attention when every other word was misspelled
I dunno, he has some valid points in there. I’d read past the BS and finish it!
Leaning Johnson as well at center tonight. Like his upside. That being said, I used Mejri last night in one of my 2 lineups for multiple contests and he killed me. Think Johnson will deliver enough solid points though to consider. Drummond just doesn’t do it for me. Like his min consistency but lately just don’t see a lot of huge upside from him.
Call me crazy but I think Memphis is going to have one game where they ball out and keep it close enough for Spurs to get some run. Considering kawhi tonight with lbj
I vote to have this string deleted and start over!
Anyone considering stacking Cleveland studs tonight
The thing about the Spurs/MEM game is at some point here real soon regardless of the score Pop has to get these dudes some minutes. He simply can’t play these guy low mid 20 minutes and expect to keep up with OKC in round 2. He has to push up and over 30 minutes either in game 3 or game 4 or both.
I think Boston is the stack tonight. They need to win, and odds are their offense will get going at home. Injuries mean a ton of minutes for Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Jerecho. IT2 is a little higher priced, but needs to play a ton of minutes. FWIW, Sullinger looks really out of shape, can’t see him playing more than 20 minutes. I think a Boston stack + Duncan + Lebron, is a sweet way to go tonite!
I started with a cleveland mini stack but the more ive been looking, the more I want to rid myself of Kevin Love
Noooooooooooooooooooo Not tonight!!
Thoughts on Jerebko as a gpp punt?
I gave my two cents on him above. But to do it again, he’s in all my GPP lineups. I’m a glutton for punishment and have been losing in a bad way lately. So know that. But from a pure basketball strategy perspective, Boston really needs him to play significant minutes and to play well. Since Bradley and Olynyk went down, they have absolutely no floor spacing. It’s why Isaiah was so bad the last game. His game is drive and kick (or finish), and that gets really hard when 4 guys are hanging in the paint mucking things up. Jerebko is literally their only spacing option. I think ~20-25 fantasy points is within reason. If Olynyk plays, scrap all this.
I’m with you Thomas. If the Spurs end up sweeping, they are going to have a few days rest on OKC. Even pop who likes to rest guys has got to want to get some kind of run in before the layoff considering their lineup has been so upside down for the last month.
Jerebko in DK is a great option
I know I wont get a response from anyone but howdo u win at nba freeroll on fanduel? Any advice would be greatly appreciated thanks!
PP$ find those sleepers! Look at the previous winners and the wtf?! line ups they have. looks like a crap shoot most times. Also, don’t try to spend every $. Most big tourney winners spend quite a bit under the allocation.
Buy a lottery ticket
Any thoughts on Rozier? Hes dirt cheap in DK
Ryan, just like any other gpp. load your lineup with lock picks and put in some gut plug n plays with high ceilings
Okay what are lock picks? Would recommend stacking the cav players and Detroit players?
lock pics are you must plays. example, LOVE tonight and James….get me?
Interesting news: Jarell Martin done for year. Will have a “procedure to alleviate soreness in his foot” and will miss the rest of the post season. http://www.nba.com/grizzlies/news/martin-injury-update-160422
This probably makes Jamychael Green an interesting play if you are anticipating lots of garbage time. Those 20 minutes have to go somewhere.
Ryan, I call lock picks consensus expert picks. Safe quality guys you know your have a high floor with, with some upside on the ceiling. Players youre expecting to hit 30-40 points with. The gut plug n plays should be guys that can range from 5 fpts upwards of 50 fpts. Kyrie Irving comes to mind as an example of a plug n play guy typically
on gpp’s you have to willing to accept that youre lineup has an equal chance of hitting 250pts as it does 350 points. where as 50/50’s youre looking for a safe lineup that wont vary much around 310 pts
Sorry, im at work, not paying attention to grammar or editing before posting
another note. might be a different beast with such small slates… But Ive read some research that shows stacking in basketball isnt as optimal as stacking in say mlb. I do mini stacks personally. 3/3/plug ins
JaMychael Green is a very interesting play with Martin out. What do you guys think about Rozier? If I have him I can get both Horford and Drummond in my lineup, but I don’t know if I should play both…
I will not be playing Roz anywhere tonight. Don’t see him getting good play time. Look at this previous games on rotoworld. And yes, I know its the end of season but I would’t play him.
Su, you must be on DK. I only play FD. But if I were you id plug aminu in for one of the two. And spend elsewhere
DFSR crew:
I thought i’d see a bigger bump to some guys after Jarell Martin went down to 0 minutes. Something didn’t seem quite right. So i added up the minutes for every MEM guy in the system. You have a total of 230 minutes allotted to MEM players. If they go with 5 guys on the floor for the full 48 minutes, that’s 240 player minutes. I know i’m splitting hairs here and you guys may still be working on this, but just wanted to make sure we don’t leave projects short because all the minutes weren’t taken into account.
Thanks.
Or am i thinking about the minutes wrong?
Did the same exercise for BOS and SAS, they too were off. So maybe i don’t know what i’m talking about…. Sorry if that’s the case.
Reid. Thanks for bringing this up. The simple answer is yes we have functionality built in that is meant to redistribute minutes somewhat fluidly when news comes in. I say “meant to” and “somewhat” because it also requires a gentle touch as redistributing minutes in NBA is tricky and not always a simple A-B equation.
We also leave a bit of room for error, erring on the liberal side with some teams because they are less predictive. Typically what you’ll see happen in these cases is the lower, end of bench guys aren’t adjusted properly once we’ve gone in and begun making some manual changes based on narrative or news.
Re: Martin’s minutes. J Green and C Anderson were given auto-minutes upgrades and then a bit more when I deemed the auto-addition too low.
I’m running an audit now to find the discrepancies. What I will say, is that the players who matter most have what we deem to be accurate minutes’ projections.
Awesome. Thank you for the response. I know it’s a tricky beast and you will never have perfect minutes projections. Just want to make sure i don’t over or under value guys by a wide margin because something significant was missed in the minutes allocations.
Thanks again.
Yeah that’s a legit concern. Teams shortening their bench for the playoffs is where almost all of the issues stemmed, except for the Spurs who our system is “playing it safe” with because they are just projected to crush Memphis
I think I just got a blister on my finger scrolling all the way down here today! Here is today’s DFSR/Walrus Premier NBA L/U for Fantasy Aces. Good luck!
G I.Thomas 34.91 5,750.00
G E.Turner 26.95 4,500.00
G J.Teague 30.59 5,100.00
F J.Crowder 25.62 5,000.00
F K.Bazemore 22.91 4,600.00
F A.Johnson 19.61 3,900.00
C A.Horford 33.36 5,300.00
Util R.Jackson 29.38 5,200.00
Util K.Irving 34.32 5,600.00
that lineup looks awesome. i may need to give fantasy aces a try sometime. If only i could fit all those guys into a DK lineup….
So I am going to look closely at you LU, Walrus playing it into FD and see how we do. Where LeBron and Kyrie are are concerned, are you merely supposing LB’s value will not match his output tonight?
what are people thinking for DK cash lineup?
Im liking Lebron, Jackson, Teague, Crowder.
What about everyone else?
All locks.
Thewalrus82. Thanks for aces lineups from a fellow New Yorker who can only play on that site. Always appreciate the insight.
Tom – no problem! Hopefully you played last nights L/U and rode the cash train with me all the way to money town!
…..Mills…. Mills…. I hope it’s not a bad omen…
I know he’s been awful lately but any thoughts on Barnes? Guessing his ownership is very low & he’s due for a nice game. Thoughts?
I did actually. Would love to ask a couple of questions can i dm you on twitter. I justbstarted following you today.
Tom – fire away! I’m always glad to help.
I hope everyone is pullin for old Jim tonight…..it’s been a barren wasteland of late……..put this lineup together and I’m going with it come hell or high water……
Thomas
Teague
KCP
Turner
Crowder
Morris
Milsap
Harris
Horford
Any guesses on results?
No holes from my perspective, but isn’t it funny howmost of our lineups start with high expectations, and wind up making you scratch your head? I have all but 3 of those guys, and I am confident as usual……….,.but right after the tip you kind of get that initial feel about what kind of night you’ll have.,………good luck!
Jim, I play DK but don’t have any of those in my lineup. Does that mean tonight might be very profitable for me?
Actually have Harris in
All, please weigh in. I understand the optimizer is set for cash games. But, they aren’t just giving you players to play. They are giving projected points. When I see projections around 310 on a 3 game slate I’m putting that in a GPP! Those projections have been ending up around 260-280 in actuality which definitely isn’t in the money in a GPP. Is that type of total cashing in say a 50/50??
In my experience no
By the look of things Jim, everyone needs to play the Cavs
It’s nice on nights when guys like Curry, Durant, Westbrook and Harden are playing. Building around 2 of those guys (high floor/high ceiling) always gives some confidence in either cash or GPP. And it sucks that’s how the schedule has been working out. Then on nights like tonight (with exception of Lebron) it’s a complete mix bag. I’m no expert, but I’ll be investing in GPP tonight because nothing feels “safe” (grizzlies can’t hang, who knows what spurs will do, ATL is too balanced, Boston is a crap shoot, Detroit anyone of those guys can have a great night, and Cleveland has Lebron as usually the only guarantee).
JIM, your lineup looks pretty solid… although any one of those players could disappear at some point tonight.. lol, good luck!
Doug – I think someone mentioned this a few days ago and I apologize if you answered this, but do you all not update stats during the playoff’s?
hey guys quick question for DK cash,
would you rather have:
teague/crowder or millsap/smart?
What do you guys think of this gpp lineup on DK
PG Teague
SG Munford
SF T. Harris
PF Millsap
C Drummond
G Caldwell-Pope
F Love
Util Morris
GTD’S on Baze and Smart tonight. I have not seen any updates nearing lock. Does anyone have any information on them yet?
Baze and Smart are both probable. Baze has been probable all series with knee stiffness. Smart suffered a contusion (fancy word for bruise) in game 2 and is fully expected to go out there and get full run tonight.
Good luck all!
Walrus is on point. Both should be fine, especially bazemore since he’s been playing with this thing for about a week or longer and has been playing great.
John……..begin making plans for the big money you will win…….might consider dropping Harris
Why would you drop HARRIS? He has been getting consistent minutes and almost 5x value.
Korver/Irving or Teague/KCP
GPP DK
I liked KCP and Teague at first but I’m already pretty stacked with pistons
Jerebko or Rozier as sleeper GPP?
Does anyone want to weigh in on my minutes question above?
If you go through the optimizer and add up the minutes for each team, they vary widely. This seems wrong to me.
If 5 guys are on the floor at all times, and there are 48 minutes in a basketball game, there will be 240 player minute available. Simple arithmetic. If this is somehow wrong, i’d love to know how or why.
Some teams like the Grizz show 230 player minutes. So there are 10 minutes not accounted for in the DFSR projections.
Other teams like the Pistons show 262 player minutes. So there are 22 minutes attributed to players that won’t exist. Some of the pistons guys may be over valued.
Anyway, i could be wrong in all this logic. Can someone back me up or shoot me down? What am i missing?
Thanks
Reid, I weighed in above. Just in case you missed it.
So does the flu bug get the better of Green tonight or do you think he plays?
The big black bug bit the blue bugs balls
so how many of you guys are fading lebron tonight?
Not fading LeBron. Never a good idea to mix emotion and DFS but after Stanley Johnson ran his mouth this just feels like a LeBron triple double kind of night imo. Plus if there was another stud out there I’d consider it but not another guy tonight I think could have an “off’ night and still hit 40fp like LeBron should. There’s a number of guys who could go 40fp+ but most of those guys could hit low 30s just as easy.
Reid – You are exactly right. You got me curious so I looked at a few box scores and it always adds up to 240. It seems like when allocating minutes, there needs to be the cap at 240 per team. I’d say great catch!!
Yeah makes me rethink some of my pistons plays especially since 22 over the max is kind of a lot. Thanks for responding though. Glad to know i’m not totally crazy.
Much of this was from players on the lower end of the salary tier, Baynes, Dinwiddie, Tolliver etc who weren’t adjusted from “irrelevant” to “completely irrelevant”. I’m still running audit, but nothing I’ve seen so far is concerning.
I just saw your response above, Doug. Thank you for explaining this. I know it’s a tricky beast, will never be perfect, and will require a lot of manual work on your end. But a big help to have some feedback as i make my decisions.
Thanks again.
Turner and jerebko starting over smart and sullinger. Smart still expected 30+ minutes
I think that brings all 4 of them in play. Smart and Sully probably have a much better chance now racking up fp against the second team.
it is gambling people. its all a risk. Stop blaming someone else for your bad picks. if you need some bogus tool to win then maybe you shouldn’t use it or gamble
So anybody like Jerebko
Got to throw him in a lineup or 2 I think…GPP definitely.
Stevens has said about Turner and Smart doesn’t matter who starts both will end up with 30+ minutes. Jerebko starting doesn’t guarantee big uptick in minutes
I agree with all of this.
nope dude has only played over 25 minutes once the whole season and has only scored 20 or more fantasy points on any site like maybe 3 i wont touch him
Smart and Drummond make me nervous. Drummond hasn’t performed well enough yet this series and Smart will either play great or drop off earth like last game.
Wondering if smith should bump ahead of smart
I took Smart down a tad for not starting, but he still sees run off bench. Took Jerebko to 25 minutes which might be conservative. He isn’t a sure thing as a per minute guy. Sullinger out of mix now. Leave it to the playoffs to have this many questions.
That being said, Jerebko a must start at minimum on DK
Liking Turner more now because I expect him to handle the ball and let Thomas play more off ball
Tobias Harris and Amir Johnson or Jerebko and Drummond
Lloyd…………..sorry man….John was joking with me because I’ve been losing a lot lately so he’s saying if he stays far away from my picks he might just do really well………….the only player he had in his lineup that I had was Harris……thus my comment. Didn’t mean to cause confusion………it’s kind of an ongoing joke…………..(or is it?)
Jim, obviously you got good sense of humor. Looking forward to your comments later just hope I’m not drinking my beer when I’m read it
Smart out now what?
I don’t mind him coming off the bench
Thanks for being on top of all this (unexpected) late news, Doug.
Good luck tonight, everyone
Yeah man! Can’t believe playoffs have been this uncertain. Really nuts. Like Jerebko starting tonight is nuts. Not like it’s a bad decision, but this guy wasn’t exactly crushing off the bench this year.
Ya i didn’t see it getting this crazy, that’s for sure. But desperate times call for desperate measures. The Jerebko situation really highlights how dire things are in Boston from a spacing/shooting perspective. No Bradley and no Olynyk means they try to run the Isaiah drive and kick game with 4 hawks hanging in the paint. Smart and Turner cannot shoot the three to save their life (even though Turner may have a decent mid range game). Sullinger and Amir are in that same boat. Leaves Jerebko and Crowder as the only capable three point shooters. Otherwise they’d have to go Turner pick and roll with Isaiah off the ball to keep the defense honest (i.e. out of the paint on help side) and obviously that’s not ideal considering how much better Isaiah is handling the ball. Rough blow for them losing their two best shooters when they need them most.
Zach Lowe had a great article on this situation. Reason i jumped at Jerebko tonight. If you aren’t familiar with Lowe i’d recommend reading his stuff. Good writer and great basketball mind. http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15278135/the-celtics-out-loss-avery-bradley
Jeremy – Next time clarify your note…Smart off the bench. Not out. You had me scrambling last second.
Ownership rates are crazy high in all my lineups this is gonna be one off night from any of the 9 and you’re done
Why is JaMychal Green showing questionable on DraftKings all of a sudden??
From what i’ve seen he’s probable but is sick with flu-like symptoms. Sounds like he’s playing and they will need to give him minutes with no Jarell Martin around. I have him in one lineup. Would be surprised if he didn’t play.
All players in double digits. ?
Was just thinking where’s Jim he must be doing ok
I’m traveling this evening…….but I’ll try to stay on top of things…..no rage yet though………key word “yet”
Well safe travels fun with rage not sure what to expect when you cash tonight
All players above 20. ???
330 and if I would’ve had Reggie Jackson instead of Kyrie and KCP instead of Korver then I would be one of the hundreds with the same lineup currently at the top.
I’m at 301! And winning nothing lol I knew when I saw ownerships lots of us would be looking in and not winning but come on 301 should get me something double ups for me tomorrow lol
Don’t know if it will hold up but tied with 200+ people with 347. Locked in Jonas and deleted a few guys no chance I would play and optimizer rocked a 347.
I went against the optimizer and cashed in big on the Spurs game kawhi for 61 fpts BOOM