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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 197 – 4/23/16
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UFC 197 is set for Saturday night and even with a change to the main event this is shaping up to be one hell of a card. Jon Jones returns to the Octagon, the (in my opinion) best pound for pound fighter in the world Demetrious Johnson is in action, along with both of the Pettis brothers. Back-to-back strong showings for us at DFSR, let's dig in and make it three straight.
Vegas Favorite ($10,500+)
Demetrious Johnson ($11,000)
Vegas Line: -420
Career Record: 23-2-1
UFC Record: 11-1-1
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: 4 KO / 9 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision - John Dodson
I could have gone with Jon Jones here but being out of action for over a year gives me a nano second of hesitation. On the other Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson has dominated the Flyweight division and gives me no reason to doubt he will put away Cejudo. Though Cejudo is talented and undefeated, Johnson simply overwhelms everyone at 125 lbs and I just don't see how this one is any different.
Mid-Range Target ($9,500-$10,400)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($10,000)
Vegas Line: -135
Career Record: 13-3-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Record In Last 5: 3-1-1
Finishes: 10 KO / 1 Sub / 10 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: L, Submission (RNC), 1st Rd - Nikita Krylov
It's power vs. power in this one as Marcos "Pezao" Rogerio de Lima takes on Clint Hester in a battle of TUF alumn. Pezao is the better all-around fighter and looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss after two straight first-round knockouts. Hester has been knocked out in both of his last two outings and I think his struggles continue at UFC 197, which could mark his last bout in the promotion.
Upset Alert (Under $9,500)
Glacio Franco ($8,500)
Vegas Line: +160
Career Record: 13-3
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Finishes: 6 KO / 6 Subs / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Submission (RNC), 3rd Rd - Fernando Bruno
With two guys that everyone will want to play (Jones and Johnson) Franco presents a great opportunity to make up salary while still giving you a chance to get some bonus points. All but one of Franco's victories have ended via stoppage, including his UFC debut. His opponent, James Vick is undefeated and will be a stiff test for Franco but this one projects to be much closer than the salaries indicate. Use Franco to balance your lineup and if the underdog comes through your probability of cashing will go way up.
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UFC 197
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Good stuff here although I disagree with your upset pick…..Jon Jones and DJ are locks …pretty much….I like Pezao but he’s just a scary one rounder…if it hits the second Hester could take it but the fight will be a finish….I believe for your mid-tier….Danny Roberts or Cody East would have been beter choices but I’m fine with Pezao………..I see no way Franca wins his match…Vick just chews up prospects ….BAD…..as for an underdog Andre Fili looks like a good play and maybe even Edson Barboza.
Glad you’re back Divine_Prodigy, good stuff as usual. I took Pezao as my mid-tier because of his finish rate and Hester’s struggles, looking for bonus points. Also, Hester has looked awful past the first round, going back to TUF. I expect East and Roberts to win but I see Pezao as the most likely to finish. Fili isn’t a bad choice but I’m trusting my cheat sheet and rolling w Franca. Got to take a risk somewhere.
I will admit though with Franca , if he gets it into the clinch that should be his wheelhouse against Vick , he’s much bigger at 6’3″ . As far as Hester , yea at 185 he just could not put it together ….but since he’s moved to 205 now , perhaps that will help with the weight cut but still I’ll hedge it simply because Pezao has cardio issues , good luck tonight though bro
Any thoughts on fight night this Sunday? Not sure if I should even mess with Overeem and Arlovski.. On paper it looks like Overeem should win but hes way to unpredictable with his stamina and on the other hand Arlovski being smaller can maybe out maneuver till Overeem is spent, but the problem is Arlovski is susceptible to being drawn into a brawl in the first round.
The article and cheatsheet should be live today. I was talking to Shaun yesterday.
Yup, I’ll have this posted early afternoon EST.