Welcome to Wednesday! Last night was some fun with some fireworks as well as some good pitching. Today we are dealing with a full main slate and a mini early slate. These picks will be for the main slate, however, I will list a play or two for the early slate. If you have any questions on either slate, make sure you comment down below and I will get back to you as quickly as possible. Hope everyone has a fun and profitable Wednesday!
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Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @SF
FD - 41.05 DK - 22.78
Madison Bumgarner is my favorite pitcher on the night and it is not too close. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not a team that scares me, especially out of Chase Field. While the Diamondbacks have one great hitter against lefties in Paul Goldschmidt, the rest of the lineup is pretty watered down with guys like Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury and Chris Owings. If Bumgarner can get past Goldschmidt, he will be in for a spectacular night. In 2015, Bumgarner exhibited a combined wOBA of .255. He added to those numbers with an elite 32.9% strikeout percentage. This field is a huge bump for Bumgarner as the Diamondbacks will be going from a top 5 to bottom 5 park for hitters.
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @SD
FD - 30.37 DK - 16.22
Through 3 starts, Pomeranz has shown some potential as well as some consistency. Pomeranz is the 3rd cheapest pitcher around the industry, which is just too cheap. He will facing off against the Pirates in Petco Park, the league's best park for pitching. The match-up against the Pirates is an average one as they can struggle to get the ball out of the park. Pomeranz has exhibited a 32% strikeout rate so far this year. while we cant'expect that, his peripherals suggest we can expect something close to it. If you are looking for some value at pitcher, this is the best route.
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @CIN
FD - 30.64 DK - 16.18
Iglesias is an early only play, as the Reds play at 12:35 EST. Iglesias is simply too cheap, and in too good of a match-up. The Rockies struggle like crazy outside of Coors Field. Iglesias has flashed his upside in the past with a 35% strikeout rate against righties just last year. Over the previous 2 years, Iglesias has exhibited an above league average combined wOBA of .298 With the exception of Carlos Gonzalez, the Rockies have struggled mightily on the road. Iglesias is my number 2 pitcher in all formats, behind Chris Sale.
Consider - Joe Ross, Jimmy Nelson, Chris Sale
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.66
Vogt is likely going to be the chalk catcher of the day, rightfully so. Vogt enters this game seeing the ball very well with a home run in 2 of his last 4 games. In 2015, Vogt hit righties to a .358 wOBA clip, well above league average. While Eovaldi is a decent pitcher, he tends to leave his fastball up on occasion, which doesn't bode well in Yankees Stadium. Vogt pulled 17 of his home runs last year, which is exactly what we need him to do tonight. I am going to give a bold prediction here and say Vogt hits one out to the short porch in right.
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.64
Lucroy is another hitter in a great spot against a bad lefty. Tommy Milone is a left handed pitcher who struggles against right as evidenced by his .331 wOBA in 2015. Lucroy on the other hand, Lucroy hit lefties to the tune of a .367 wOBA. Miller Park moves the needle in favor of Lucroy as it ranked as a top 10 hitters park for righties in 2015. I expect this whole Brewers team to get it going and for Lucroy to be right in the middle of it all.
Early Slate - Devin Mesoraco, Yadier Molina
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.88
Fielder is coming off a game where he finally turned it around and hit one onto the bleachers. After a slow power start, this has me completely comfortable in rostering Fielder. Doug Fister is a pitcher who struggled against lefties in 2015 with a .317 wOBA and 8 home runs in only 55 innings. Fielder has been very good against righties evidenced by his .392 wOBA in 2015. This is a great ballpark for lefties and Fielder has a great shot of getting another one out tonight.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.88
Lucas Duda is another player on fire with a home run in 2 straight games. I am expecting Duda to have another great game against a horrible right hander in Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson has been atrocious against lefties with a 4.49 xFIP in 2015. Duda had a great year last year with a .354 wOBA, with his exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggesting he will improve on those numbers. I am more comfortable with Duda in tournaments as he is somewhat reliant on power.
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.46
Smoak is sitting at near minimum price around the industry. I am seriously interested in any hitter at minimum price in that lethal lineup, especially when they are hitting 6th or 7th. While Ubaldo Jimenez is not a pitcher I like to target, but he will almost certainly struggle against this Jays team. Smoak has hit righties pretty well with a .326 wOBA against righties in 2015. To add on, Smoak is a switch hitter which secures his spot on the lineup and guarantees he will not be pinch-hit for.
Early Slate - Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.92
This pick is contingent on Walsh hitting leadoff once again. As mentioned above, Milone has struggled against righties with a .331 wOBA. This Brewers team should be able to get to Milone and Walsh willbe right in the middle of it all.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.27
Neil Walker has been on absolute fire lately with 5 home runs in 5 games. I am going to be targeting Hellickson like a mad man tonight with the Mets. Walker has hit righties very well with a .340 wOBA in 2015.I do take hot streaks into account in baseball, which adds to the appeal here. Hellickson has struggled keeping the ball in play with a 41% hard-hit rate in 2015. I am comfortable with Walker in all formats as he has a safe floor and ceiling.
Early Slate - Brandon Phillips, Kolten Wong
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.93
Tulo finally showed some power last night with a double and some deep flyouts. As mentioned above, I expect this Blue Jays lineup to get to Jimenez early and often. Jimenez gave up a .322 wOBA in 2015 and his peripherals suggest he will decline this year. Tulowitzki has not been great this year but I fully expect him to be just fine and turn it around very soon. I do prefer Tulo in tourney until he shows his upside.
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.42
I am not going to go into why the Brew Crew are good plays. Milone has struggled against lefties nd the Brewers are good against lefties. Villar sported a .326 wOBA against righties last season and his age suggests he will improve. I am comfortable with Villar in both tournaments and cash games due to his price and upside.
Early Slate - Zack Cozart
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.26 DK - 8.15
David Wright is another Mets player that is very hot at the plate. For the 92nd time, Hellickson is a righty that has sttruggled and will struggle some more against both righties and lefties. As i'm sure you can tell, the New York Mets are my favorite team to stack on the slate tonight. Wright has hit righties over the course of his career with a .357 wOBA.
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.81
Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees will be facing off with Kendall Graveman and the Athletics. Graveman is aright handed pitcher with reverse splits which means he is worse vs righties. Alex Rodriguez has always been a hitter that is better vs righties than lefties. This park is only going help as it ranked top 10 for right handed power in 2015. Rodriguez is more of a tournament play for me as wright is in a solid spot.
Early Slate - Matt Carpenter, Todd Frazier
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.17
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.94 DK - 8.67
Shall I go into why the New York Mets are in such a great spot? I suppose you are tired of hearing about it, so I will hold back. However, both Conforto and Granderson are very good against righties. Both of these hitters have a 145 wRC+ against lefties and there is no reason not to have confidence in these guys. If I had to pick 1, I would go with Conforto as he has a but more power at this point.
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.59
Note - Adam Jones was listed here. He left the game last night and is questionable for tonight. If he is confirmed to be in, he is a terrific play.
Consider - Adam Jones(if he plays), Ryan Braun, Nomar Mazara, Matt Kemp
Early Slate - Jay Bruce, Dexter Fowler, Melky Cabrera
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View Comments
Weather looking sketchy here in MO.... Not to far from St. Louis. But hey, it is MO!
Baseball is a total crapshoot. I appreciate the articles and picks, but there is just so much variance from night to night. It's pretty easy to make an argument for or against just about every hitter and most pitchers.
True. Its so bad that I don't think I will waste money on it anymore. I wish football season was here already...lol
This is definitely the case with MLB. Much different than NBA. Still a significant edge long term with our projections but I understand the frustrations. Liriano turns even in an average performance last night and FD is a full cash.
I agree with you Kelly
Baseball is hit or miss on Fanduel or even Draft Kings. I have tried multiple lineups and sometimes I strike it big or come up short. It;s difficult to tell which player is going to have a great game whether it be hitters or even pitchers. I have no luck and success during Football season than during Baseball season- 2 guys I always seem to plug in are Marcus Semien from Oakland and Alex Rodriguez and they have done okay for my lineup. I try to go with my gut as well as picks from this site. Sometimes I wonder if there is some kind of insider trading going on with Fanduel or even draft Kings some individuals seem to be really lucky or something else is going on. Just my opinion
Spelling errors lol I have more luck during Football season stupid computer- Everyone have an outstanding day and be safe.
Doug, why do you keep deleting my comments on here? There's no communication. I emailed you all but never got a reply. Now, you delete my comments openly criticizing this website. If your MLB predictions weren't complete and total garbage and you replied to my email, I wouldn't have to make it a public conversation. I am a paying customer but not for much longer.
Hey David. Saw an email from you in our account but I responded to it on that day. I forwarded it so you can see the copy. Tend to trash emails that specifically call us a scam as that's unfair accusation and appears more like trolling than actual discourse.
I too am a paying member and I too would delete negative comments. This is a forum for players to discuss games not bash the site. Have some tack and email that privately. I'm not the happiest at the moment, but I sure was 2 weeks ago pulling in 5 digits from the system. Nothing worse than cry babies from the night before being toxic during the new day's forum.
DFS baseball is no different than any other DFS sport fellas.......it is all about putting the best players in the best matchups each night. In baseball, these are the things that Doug talks about in his articles - players splits, the ballpark, hot steaks and the list goes on. Sometimes it is easy to forget that these players are human and have bad days just like all of us.
If you continue to do your research and keep putting the players in your lineup with all the best match up potential, you will succeed. Hang in there - baseball is a long season. Just think, we are 3 weeks into a 6 month season. :)
I'm just offering my opinion, but David sounds like a petulant child. This site demonstrates which players have the best opportunity to succeed daily. That doesn't guarantee that you can just plug in lineups and win a tournament every night. Pitching a fit on a forum that the majority of people appreciate just makes you look clueless. Their projections are well researched and meant to give you an edge. No one is forcing you to play them.
Love the Mets stack, but feel it will be the chalk tonight. Especially on DK where it pulled down the big tournament. Milwaukee stack maybe better for tournaments
No one is putting a gun to your head and forcing you to gamble, let alone use a service for gambling.
As a paying customer, I'm entitled to my opinion and I was criticizing the results being spit out by the tool. They've been off nearly every game and I almost exclusively play 50/50 games. I'm not looking to score 190 points every time I play. I did well with the tool during the regular NBA season. I know how to use it and the various conditions to consider. It's just been completely inaccurate for MLB thus far. It's not a personal attack on Doug. And thank you for replying to my email!
David. While short term results may not be what you are looking for we are confident in our system and believe it has the necessary inputs for successful predictive piece on MLB. While things haven't always lined up (i.e. FD bats strong yesterday, Liriano sinks ship) over the long term we are 100% confident in what we've put together.
Also know that I play the exact lineups the system spits out and will run variations as such. This is to say, no one knows the results better than us.
These guys make great picks and great write ups - the projection system works well if you know how to filter things IE i try not to play guys with bad matchups or bad slumps just because they are projected to do well because - well - the projections are pre-determined and don't take this into consideration - unless you are looking at value (after a guy's price has adjusted down after a slump and it would be stupid not to play them - slump or not). I'll be honest though, unless you know baseball, and have the $$$ to play multiple lineups, its very tough. Baseball is a different animal than NBA, NFL, etc.
Not true. This system is a benefit to the Joe Blow that knows nothing about sports. Use the optimal line up double up 5 or 10 bucks a day and Joe Blow will win. Since you are "almost exclusive" 50/50 guy. If you have used the system and play 50/50, how could you not be making bank?!