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JW Marriot TPC San Antonio - San Antonio, TX
Par 72 - 7,435 Yards
I didn't get to watch any of the golf tournament this week as I was busy with sick kids and some other responsibilities. It sucks this was the tournament I missed as three of my picks(Na, Knox, Donald)were on the Sunday leaderboard and all finished inside the Top 5. It was Branden Grace taking home the hardware after an impressive 66 on Sunday for a two stroke victory. Below is a final round highlight video to show you just how good Grace played.
This week the PGA Tour heads to San Antonio, Texas for the 2016 Valero Texas Open. The course, TPC San Antonio, is a Par 72 and stretches 7,435 yards. It was designed by Greg Norman with the assistance of Sergio Garcia and opened back in 2010. It has narrow fairways with some very deep, challenging bunkers along with some native areas that can create some unplayable lies. Check out Kevin Na's 16(yes 16) on Hole 9 here back in 2011.
The key is to just stay out of the native areas. Period.
This week the weather looks to again play a role in our preparation for the tournament as well as the outcome for the players. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday which will leave the course very soft as the tournament beings on Thursday. This will favor the bombers and I have set Driving Distance as one of the most important stats this week. I say one of the most important as I will also be looking closely at Proximity, more specifically from the 175-200 yard range. The Par 3's are very long(3 longer than 200 yards) and will play over par for the week. The Par 4's are fairly standard with two shorter holes (342 yard 5th hole & the 347 yard 17th hole). Looking at past results from the Top 10 players in 2015 and 2014, I found Par 4 scoring for the average player was -2 in 2014 and E in 2015 due to the high winds. You will want players who perform on the Par 4's, especially if the weather makes them more difficult. The Par 5's are longer than average with the two on the front nine exceeding 600 yards and the 18th hole is also close at 591 yards. Even the bombers will have trouble reaching these holes in two shots so make sure you roster guys with nice short iron play. With the narrow fairways and predicted wind the average driving accuracy will be around 50% for the week putting emphasis on Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. As always we will also lean heavily on Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Putting. Below is a list of all the main stats being weighed on the cheatsheet this week:
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
Also, I have joined the Slurv team to bring you live daily fantasy golf chat throughout the week. Join myself and and a collection of some of the best DFS golf minds in the industry as we prepare for each PGA tournament. Click HERE to get signed up!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 20/1
Draftkings - $10,700
Fantasy Aces - $10,700
Yes the first guy on my list this week isn't a bomber. It's his combination of every other factor(stats, history, form) that pushed him to #1 on my model this week. Although he isn't long off the tee he ranks high in Good Drive % which takes in to account the amount of times you hit the fairway off the tee or hit the green in regulation after missing the fairway. He also makes up for his lack of distance with above average long iron play and terrific play on Par 3's, 4's and 5's. He is an elite Scrambler and ranks high in Bogey Avoidance. Have I sold you on Kuchar yet? If not look at his course history over the past four years at TPC San Antonio. He has made the cut in all four with finishes of T13, T22, T4 and T15 last year. He is safe in all formats this week.
Patrick Reed
Vegas Odds - 20/1
Draftkings - $10,600
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,900
On a week when we are looking for bombers who scramble well and avoid bogeys, Reed is at the top of my list. He isn't the longest off the tee(292 yard average) but that is enough to be ranked 68th. He is also ranked 64th in Good Drive % which is a good sign when he is missing the fairways. He crushes the Par 3's, 4's and 5's in large part to not making the huge mistakes. He is one of the best Scramblers(ranked 6th) in the game which is primarily why he is ranked so high(3rd) in Bogey Avoidance. He is having a wonderful year, despite not picking up a win yet, and has a runner up, seven Top 10's and has made 11 cuts in 12 tournaments played. I will be overweight on Reed in GPP this week as some people will gravitate to other players in the same range with better course history.
Brooks Koepka
Vegas Odds - 22/1
Draftkings - $10,600
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,900
He is making his return to TPC San Antonio after making his first trip back in 2014 where he finished with a T36. He hits on all other aspects of the game we are looking for this week. He is coming off a T21 at the Masters and has only missed two cuts in 10 tournaments so far in 2016 with six finishes inside 26th place highlighted by his T3 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. He is very eager to grab that 2nd career win after breaking through at the Phoenix Open in 2015. He is one of the longest hitters on Tour and has elite long iron play combined with an elite Par 4 scoring average. He makes a ton of birdies and is a terrific putter. Look for Brooks to be on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Also Consider - Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker
Charley Hoffman
Vegas Odds - 28/1
Draftkings - $9,600
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,450
When looking for a course horse you don't need to go any further than Hoffman. He has made the cut in each of his 10 trips to TPC San Antonio and has only had one finish outside of 13th place(T70 in 2008). Add to that his form coming into this tournament and you have an excellent value in the mid $9K range this week. While I won't have much exposure in GPP this week as he keeps falling apart on the weekend, I will finally consider him for cash games. He ranks outside the Top 120 on the Par 3's, 4's and 5's and ranks 143rd in Birdie or Better % but drives the ball long has nice key Proximity numbers and has been a decent scrambler and putter so far in 2016. Ride the hot streak as he is almost a sure thing to make the cut.
William McGirt
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,200
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $4,750
Fire up dirt McGirt again this week in cash games. He has made the cut here in four of five tries but hasn't shown the upside of a Top 20 so limit your exposure to cash games only. He lacks the driving distance we are looking for but excels with all other stats listed on my model this week(Ranks 2nd in weighted averages). After missing back to back cuts he turned it around last week with a T9 at Harbour Town. While $8,200 seems a lot to pay for a player without winning upside, you have to look at the field as a whole. It isn't very strong at all.
Daniel Summerhays
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,300
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,000
After missing the cut in his first trip to TPC San Antonio back in 2011 he has continually got better each year. In 2012 he finished T29, in 2013 he cracked the Top 10 with a T7 and has now gone back to back years with Top 5's in this tournament. He has played here and had success in almost all weather conditions. He is below average in driving distance and outside his Par 5 scoring average and putting is outside the Top 100 in most stat categories. I have to agree with those out there arguing that course history does play a huge role in teh DFS game. I see both sides of the argument though. In my humble opinion it all comes down to what golfer you are looking at. The elite players can play well anywhere so I feel it isn't as important as it is for the mid tier to low tier players on tour. Guess what? Summerhays is an average to below average tour player. Use the course history to your advantage and don't miss out on this terrific value.
Also Consider - Brendan Steele, Freddie Jacobson
Bronson Burgoon
Vegas Odds - 200
Draftkings - $6,100
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $4,250
He makes an excellent low end GPP play in a stars and scrubs lineup this week. The rookie has played 14 events in 2016 and has made the cut in nine of them with four Top 25 finishes. Pretty solid for a player at $6,100 on a week with a weaker field than usual. He bombs the ball and is average to just below average in most of the stats we are looking at but should fare better than most on the Par 3's this week as he ranks 14th on Tour. This is his first trip to TPC San Antonio and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Texas native make the cut and grab his 5th Top 25 this season. Coming into this tournament he has made his last two and three of his last four cuts.
Nick Taylor
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $5,900
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $4,200
He comes in under $6K on DraftKings and makes an a great play in any format. I will be again constructing two cash game lineups this week(balanced and Stars/Scrubs) and Taylor will be all over my Stars/Scrubs lineup. He drives the ball over 295 yards on average(ranks 44th) and is accurate when looking at Proximity as a whole. Looking at his other elite stats, he ranks 29th in Par 4 scoring, 58th in Scrambling and 50th in Bogey Avoidance. He is also making his first trip to TPC San Antonio and coming in with some nice form. He has made three straight and six of his last seven cuts. That is all you are looking for in a golfer in the $5K range.
Also Consider - Jhonattan Vegas, Brett Stegmaier
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Valero Texas Open ? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
Valero Texas Open
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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