Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez fouls off a pitch on the way to striking out against San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields in the seventh inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015, in Denver. San Diego won 10-4. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
The weather looks sketchy for today's only day game (Brewers at Twins), making playing the all-day slate even riskier than usual. There's also a chance Mother Nature could interrupt play in a handful of night games, so keep an eye on the following:
None look like rainout possibilities as of this morning, but they do need to be monitored as we approach lineup lock.
The good news is we've got a full schedule ahead. Including the aforementioned day game, the 6:10 p.m. Eastern Mariners-Indians tilt won't make it on the main slate at many sites, but 13 other games will. That should provide plenty of opportunities to dig up value and find differentiating plays for your tournament lineups.
Personnel
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays haven't yet been the second coming of Murderer's Row, partly due to their inability to find a reliable lead0ff hitter and Troy Tulowitzki's ongoing struggles. Facing Mike Wright, a below-average K guy who doesn't get grounders, today looks like a good time to get the offense cranked up. Michael Saunders has hit leadoff in each of the last two games, and the Camden Yard's short porch in right will make an inviting target for the lefty. You need a strong stomach to build winning tournament lineups, and if you've got one, both he and Tulo can be had for reasonable prices and could make nice building blocks for any number of stack permutations today.
Minnesota Twins
If you're playing the all-day slate, you've gotta be comfortable with some risks and this recommendation is fraught with them, starting with the weather. But if you're comfortable with the likelihood that they'll get the game in, the Twins have some nice upside against Wily Peralta (because really, who doesn't?), and with the possible exception of cash-game specialist Joe Mauer, every single one of them is coming a decent price. As we write every five days or so, Peralta has been one of the worst regular starters in MLB over the last couple of seasons and he's getting crushed so far in 2016. Meanwhile, the Twins are picking up steam. The projection system doesn't buy into the predictive value of hot streaks, but if you do, you should be excited about this one. Minnesota has won four straight and slammed 14 hits in just six innings last night.
Not a guy we'd recommend for cash games, but considering he's coming at Wily Peralta-like prices, we think you can take a flyer on Cain in some tournament lineups. Cain had a nice run early in his career by consistently out-pitching his peripherals. That trend came to a screeching halt in 2013 and hasn't returned since. However, he's actually been burned by some pretty bad luck in the early going this season, including a ludicrous BABIP allowed and strand rate. He was solid in his last start at Colorado—until suddenly, he wasn't. He struck out seven and walked one before the Rockies chased him with six runs in what eventually turned into a nine-run fifth inning. That kind of thing happens at Coors Field. And it almost never happens in San Fran, the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors. Look, Cain is a below average guy at this stage of his career, and Arizona definitely has some bats that can hurt him. But the Giants have solid win potential (-125) and if you can get a win from your starting pitcher at these prices, you'll often have a head start on the rest of the field.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.43 DK - 11.33
As CarGo has proven since the last half of 2015, when he's healthy, he's among the best hitters in baseball. The projection system can't get enough of him in his matchup against punching bag Alfredo Simon in a ball park that rivals Coors when it comes to home fun factors. Gonzalez is slashing .377/.421/.698 this season (!) and has a career .396 wOBA (!!) and .264 ISO (!!!) against righties. A great play in any format. Update: Alfredo Simon has been scratched for Robert Stephenson
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.75
The power's gotta return at some point, right? Mesoraco has yet to regain his 2014 form after missing most of last season with a hip injury, but we think the upside is still there and trust that he's going to show it soon. It also helps that there aren't any other great/safe bets for value at catcher, so Mesoraco on the plus-side of a split in a great park might just be the best you can do. de la Rosa's crappy numbers against righties in his career can't be blamed entirely on Coors. He's actually been somehow worse in this split away from home.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
Great article Brent! You gotta expect these Jays salaries are gong to win someone a tourney pretty soon.
So catcher picks over roast night into today. Meseraco, grandal, and posey. We need more confirmation here fellas
Today has feel that you should pay up for some bats on DK
I agree John...it is in the air. Trying to fit Batista, Cargo and or Harper into lineups. Thinking about punting C position by going with whichever 2K catcher the Rangers throw out there in a plus matchup.
Liriano or Velasquez?
Cargo or trout? Have a couple extra bucks to get trout. Hard not to roster him on name alone. That seems to be my problem!
As far as weather goes, it looks like all will be good outside of the Cardinals game. That radar is a little worrying.
My bankroll is a little low so no gpp for a little while I'm liking this cash lineup tonight. Hopefully it works out.
Liriano Mesoraco Hosmer Castro Tulo A Rod
Bautista Mazara Saunders.
Blue, velasqueZ for gpp Loriano for cash. Loriano will be higher owned
I let my 9 year old kid pick a team and I used the optimizer to pick a team in the same league. I lost......to a 9 year old.