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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on FOX 19 – 4/16/16
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We're back after a 3-0 showing last week in Croatia as the UFC returs to the USA for a Fox primetime card headlined by Glover Teixeira and Rashad Evans. Typical as of late, this card has been shuffled up and down in every direction, including Lyoto Machida's bout being scratched after he admitted to taking a banned substance. No more intro, let's get right to hopefully repeating last week's performance. I'll be checking the comment section right up until lineup lock to talk about all things UFC on Fox 19.
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Khabib Nurmagomedov ($11,400)
Vegas Line: -1100
Career Record: 22-0
UFC Record: 6-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: 7 KO / 7 Subs / 10 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision - Rafael dos Anjos
He's back from injury and ready to continue his destruction of the lightweight decision. This is a match up that requires you to look through the research available in my cheat sheet and just know that Nurmagomedov is just at a different level of MMA than Darrell Horcher. As a -1100 favorite he will cost you a pretty penny at $11,400 on DraftKings but he should be a relatively safe play to score enough points to make up for the salary. If you play smart, you should be able to roster Nurmagomedov in both cash games and GPPs.
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Glover Teixeira ($10,300)
Vegas Line: -225
Career Record: 24-4
UFC Record: 6-0
Record In Last 5: 7-2
Finishes: 14 KO / 7 Subs / 16 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round TKO - Patrick Cummins
Basic strategy says to key-in on the main event simply because a five round bout gives you more opportunity to score points. That's true, if Teixeira doesn't KO Rashad Evans first. Glover and Evans are the same age but "Suga" appears to be wearing down faster. Glover went the distance with both Jon Jones and Phil Davis before his most recent stretch of two straight stoppage victories. At $10,300 Teixeira presents good value to rack up points whether it's a five round decision or bonus points with an early KO.
UPSET ALERT (Under $9,500)
Tecia Torres ($9,200)
Vegas Line: +210
Career Record: 7-0
UFC Record: 3-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Finishes: None
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision - Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
Looking for upsets, this fight threw up a huge red flag for me. Torres has already defeated Rose Namajunas, giving her the confidence advantage and the edge in that she's seen the aggressive striking style of Namajunas. Though Torres doesn't stop opponents, I like her experience against the younger fighter who has shown emotions can get the best of her. Torres will probably have to fend off an opening bell rush, but if she does that, I like her odds of going the distance and securing a win.
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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As an avid MMA player I agree on all except Tecia Torres , Khabib is a lock but for GPP purposes he has to get the finish and I feel Bamgbose at 10.5K does that in the first round , but back to Tecia . The Rose she fought 3 years ago and the Roae today are vastly different . Tecia hasn’t been taken down and I don’t think Tecia even wants to go to the ground with Rose with her current skillset. Thus making it a stand up affair , and one I have to give the edge to Rose . I think it’s a decision based off volume for Rose . I like Michael Graves as a far better underdog but that’s a bit sketchy . Even Rashad , though I think Glover has this, Suga could wrestle his way to a victory .
I agree with 90% of what you’re saying… I LOVE Bamgbose as well, my only hesitation is he took the fight on short notice but I don’t think that will matter. I agree that Rose has improved a lot but the experience edge goes to Torres and I wouldn’t discount her striking. It’s probably a decision, but I think the vet takes it. Would definitely be an upset though so I won’t be floored if Rose wins on volume.
Graves is a sneaky good play, I won’t go into all the reasons (check the cheat sheet) but you may be on to something there. Suga could wrestle his way to a win, but when he he gets Glover to the ground I don’t think he can do anything with him. It’s a five round fight, even if Evans wrestles well early, I think it’s only a matter of time until Glover catches him.
Thanks for posting Divine – look forward to more convo, should be a fun card.
Yet at the same time , Bamgbose could lose if Mutante takes it to the ground , this fight will definitely end in a finish ….but in order to take Bamgbose down , I feel he has to eat shots to do so and that jaw cannot take it. I’m conflicted with if Dodson will KO Manny . Manny hasn’t been KO’d in 6 years , yet Dodson is more powerful and electric and quick , all around better than Manny , but it could go to decision and at 11.2 …no bueno . I like Makhachev a lot and I could see a finish of Dober , though he is tough .
Yea, I liked Makhachev too, I almost wrote about him instead of Khabib. Too bad the USADA testing cost another fight on this card. Get ready for tons of filler content, especially if we get a couple quick finishes.