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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/14/16
Load up on Rockies, Matt Cain is coming to Coors! Once again, the picks are littered with Giants and Rockies as we get a day-heavy split slate on Thursday.
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PITCHER
Early slate
Jaime Garcia FD 8600 DK 9700
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @STL
FD - 37.2 DK - 20.1
In the coming months, you'll probably see us pick on the Brewers a lot in this column, especially when they leave the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park. Garcia is more of a pitch-to-contact dude, but free-swinging Milwaukee will boost his upside to some degree, and he's always been a reliable source of innings and ground balls, which gives him a sturdy floor. Add on the fact that he's going heads up with Wily Peralta, and he's got an excellent shot at getting a win (opening line, St. Louis -200).
Vincent Velasquez FD 7400 DK 0
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @PHI
FD - 31.65 DK - 16.96
As I type this, Jared Eickhoff is absolutely carving up the Padres bats to the tune of 9 Ks, 5 hits and no runs in 7 innings. They might as well be swinging toothpicks up there. Now, Eickhoff is no elite prospect, but the eye test tells you he's at least got some decent stuff. Not so for Charlie Morton (4.07 career xFIP), who silenced San Diego in simlar fashion the night before. None of the preceding may have any direct bearing on what happens Thursday, but the point is this: the Padres aren't very good. I probably could've just pointed to the fact that Melvin Upton Jr. is holding down a spot in the middle of their order and achieved the same effect in fewer words. At any rate, Velasquez is an exciting young arm with bit-time strikeout potential, and he's coming in pretty cheap against a team that has been shut out four times in their first eight games. Deploy him at will.
Stephen Strasburg FD 11200 DK 11300
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @WSH
FD - 40.29 DK - 22.61
Stras was scratched Wednesday due to a lingering illness, but he's expected to take the hill Thursday afternoon. Here's what we wrote about him yesterday; the opponent hasn't changed, and neither has our projection been altered dramatically, even if the betting line is slightly diminished:
Strasburg will be meeting up with the Braves once again after starting the year with an average start against them. In that start, Strasburg went 6 innings and only struck out 4. You can expect much better numbers in this one as Strasburg has a career K/9 rate of over 10. While the Braves don't strike out a bunch, when Strasburg has his stuff working it doesn't matter who's at the plate. I expect Dusty Baker to let Strasburg go about 110 pitches and should be able to dominate these guys. This game has an over/under of 7 1/2 and the Braves are -250 which tells puts the Braves run projection around 2.8.
Late slate
Cole Hamels FD 10200 DK 10600
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TEX
FD - 39.24 DK - 22.02
To be honest, not a lot about the late games looks all that appetizing. Lots of guys you could take a shot with, but not that I'm feeling super confident about. Hamels comes the closest to evoking that feeling, even against a Baltimore team with some potent bats. He's struggled with command in his first two starts, but assuming he gets that lined out—and history tells us he will—he remains a top-of-the-rotation arm capable of striking out about a batter per inning and working deep into games.
CATCHER
Early slate
Nick Hundley FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @COL
FD - 10.27 DK - 8.27
It's just really tough to get away from Coors Field, you guys. The sites will make you pay, but when you can afford it, it's worth the cost. Hundley is Exhibit A in the case for the affirmative. He came to Colorado as a big-league veteran with a career .240 batting average and wOBA hovering around .300. Last season, in 109 games with the Rockies, he put up a .349 wOBA while slashing .301/.339/.467. Not to throw shade on the hard work I'm sure Hundley is putting in during the offseason, but I think it's safe to say to Coors effect is in play here. His spot in the lower half of the batting order will depress his value somewhat, but he's coming at affordable prices given the location.
Also consider: Buster Posey. If he's back out there, you're gonna want some exposure to the best hitting catcher in the game.
Late slate
Russell Martin FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.79
Martin's off to a slow start on the year, but he's in a nice upside spot here. Rogers Centre is a well-established launching pad, and while Nate Eovaldi throws hard, he also give up loads of hard contact. Not an ideal combo. And Martin is a proven high-floor guy, thanks to strong walk and contact rates. He's getting up there in years, but we're willing to bet his tough first week or so is nothing more than that.
FIRST BASE
Early slate
Ben Paulsen FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @COL
FD - 10.23 DK - 8.15
Paulsen might be a middling hitter, but he's also priced as such. And if you haven't figured it out yet, in Colorado, that represents a bargain. Now's probably a good time to talk about Giants pitcher Matt Cain. A low-K guy who doesn't coax a lot of grounders, Cain's performance exceeded his peripherals for a long time. That started to change about three years ago, coinciding with a marked increase in his HR/FB ratio. So you can see why the projection system wants to pick on him. Also, Coors Field.
Logan Morrison FD 2200 DK 2800
Opponent - CLE (Salazar) Park - @TB
FD - 8.76 DK - 6.92
A pure punt play here to be sure, but the first base landscape is weirdly desolate on the day slate. And the projection system really likes LoMo from a value perspective here. That's largely due to his placement in the No. 2 hole, and the system's enduring distrust in Indians starter Danny Salazar. From the algorithm's perspective, Salazar's impressive strikeout stuff leads some of us silly humans to overrate what he actually is: a dude who continues to post FIPs and xFIPs in the mid 3s. Which is fine, but nothing to run from. Meanwhile, Morrison has a long history of strong plate protection with just enough power to make him dangerous when he squares one up.
Late slate
Prince Fielder FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.96 DK - 9.41
Going against Chris Tillman, Fielder looks like the clear choice here, even though the slate holds some of the best first basement in the game. The price is attractive, sure, but even on a raw-points basis, the system is pretty excited about this matchup. Fielder has always been the kind of hitter who walks nearly as often as he strikes out, which makes him a pretty safe choice, especially against a guy like Tillman, who doesn't punch anybody out anyway. He's also got nice upside against a fly-ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly park like Arlington.
SECOND BASE
Early slate
Daniel Murphy FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.64
Whoa, buddy. What's up with Julio Teheran against lefties? Negative splits are one thing, but Teheran goes from a pretty solid starter against right-handed hitters to a guy who should've maxed out in High A when they're standing in the opposite batter's box. And you know what's almost as bad as Julio Teheran against lefties? Julio Teheran pitching on the road. Double whammy. Murphy has long been a preferred cash-game play and has given us no reason to change our opinion so far this season, as the hot hitting he displayed in the latter half of 2015 and carried into the postseason and has followed him from New York to Washington. Over the past few years, he's been one of the toughest guys in the majors to strike out, and he's especially tough on righties.
Consider: Cesar Hernandez
Late slate
Rougned Odor FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @TEX
FD - 10 DK - 8.02
This one is somewhat batting order-dependent, and the bad news is that it looks like the promotion of Nomar Mazarra may have bumped Odor to the bottom third for the time being. But he's bounced all over the lineup this season, and regardless, the system is all-in on Rangers against Tillman on Thursday. Globe Life Park was No. 5 in the majors last year in terms of overall park factors, so offense could be plentiful if Tillman can't miss bats and/or invoke soft contact.
SHORTSTOP
Early slate
Trevor Story FD 4600 DK 4900
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @COL
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.68
We'll spare you any more puns and just say that the guy is still producing at an incredible clip. As of this writing, he has tripled twice Wednesday night, one of which just missed becoming his eighth home run in as many games to start his MLB career. For those and the Matt Cain-related reasons detailed above, we think he's worth paying for Thursday when you should be able to find solid pitching at a decent price.
Jimmy Rollins FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.19 DK - 7.39
If you can't fit in Story, the situation at SS gets ugly quick on the early slate. Brandon Crawford will be going lefty-on-lefty, Francisco Lindor is going heads up with Chris Archer, and most of the other bats we usually look to are playing at night. What we're left with is the ghost of Jimmy Rollins, who's cheap and probably not as bad as you think. How's that for a ringing endorsement?
Also consider: Stephen Drew, mutually assured destruction, and global famine. Just kidding. Drew's not a bad play if Anthony Rendon's day off on Wednesday was anything other than routine maintenance and Drew is back near the top of the order.
THIRD BASE
Early slate
Matt Carpenter FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @STL
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.32
I hope Wily Peralta's mom doesn't read DFSR. We pick on her kid a lot. Maybe we should talk more about 2014. 17 wins! Remember that? Good times. Since then, he's been one of the worst regular starters in baseball, posting a 4.84 FIP last season and getting shelled in both starts in 2016. Lefties are really going bananas on this guy, with a .376 wOBA last season and starting this one 8-for-21 with four extra base hits. It's hard to know for sure if 2016 Matt Carpenter will the plate protection/contact hitter he was from 2012-14 or the power/patience guy he morphed into last year. Either way, he'll be a good spot at the top of the lineup against Peralta.
Maikel Franco FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.39
In a half season after getting summoned to the bigs last year, Franco showed a rare blend of power and contact-ability. Early returns in 2016 say it was no fluke as he's been raking ever since spring training began. That .346 batting average he's carrying is undoubtedly the product of some good BABIP luck, but it's becoming clear this kid can really hit. Thursday's San Diego starter Drew Pomeranz has decent peripherals as a back-of-the-rotation/swing guy, but fly-ball pitchers can get burned in Citizens Bank Park, the sixth-ranked venue in the majors for home run factors last year.
Late slate
Justin Turner FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.26
Turner has almost quietly gone from a utility guy to a middle-of-the-order stalwart in Los Angeles over the last two years. He's one of those odd righties who actually has better numbers against right-handed pitching, but don't be scared off by the reverse splits here. Lefty Robby Ray stuggles mightily against right-handed bats, and the Dodgers can mold their lineup to take advantage of that, with Turner right in the thick of it.
OUTFIELD
Early slate
Hunter Pence FD 4500 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 13.94 DK - 11.14
We're not just picking on Matt Cain. Pence has a favorable split here against Jorge de la Rosa, and (everybody say it with me) #CoorsField.
Carlos Gonzalez FD 4700 DK 5100
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @COL
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.31
Gerardo Parra FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @COL
FD - 11.53 DK - 9.32
Do you want the chalk or the contrarian-ish play? Do you want to spend or save? Do you want a top-of-the-lineup stack, or would you rather go against the grain and load up on the bottom half of the order. There are literally no wrong answers here. Why not do both? Multi-entry was made for days like this.
Jeremy Hazelbaker FD 2300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @STL
FD - 10.31 DK - 8.35
Before last week, you probably thought he was a teammate of Moonlight Graham. Not the case. Even it sounds like he got his name from an ill-fated competitor to Ford's Model-T, he's a real live 28-year-old in 21st century. Neat-o! He's also hitting near the top of the order and has been one of the best hitters in baseball not named Trevor Story through the first 10 days or so of the season. It probably won't last; he's making his big-league debut as he closes in on 30 years old for a reason, after all. But against Wily Peralta, we see no reason for the good times to end tonight.
Late slate
Yasiel Puig FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.43 DK - 9.83
The fantasy industry as whole seems to have cooled on Puig after a so-so sophomore season. We think that's dumb, the projection system and I. He can still mash in any split, and he's especially enticing as a DFS play against lefties, where his walk rate climbs and his K rate plummets. He looks like the best OF play on the board tonight.
Billy Hamilton FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - CHC (Hammel) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.45 DK - 8.55
Yeesh. This late slate is making me want to take up chess. Or vodka. One of the two. Hamilton is more of a tournament play than anything and only gets that distinction if he's back at the top of the order again on Thursday.
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- A.J. Ellis, Carlos Gonzalez: (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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ugh… I wanted to sleep in tomorrow too with a late start at work… lol Here on the west coast those early slates are no fun when I have a chance to sleep… OH WELL!! lol
I like Salazar tonight too for the early slate.
Yeah. He’s actually ahead of Stras in our system from a pts/$ perspective.
Anyone else like going Valesquez/Pomeranz and loading up on Coors today?
I think this is a fine strategy. Baseball requires taking risks like this.
That was a flip flop on the Giants game last night!
Don’t pick any twins guys till hell freezes over . The system may love em but it doesn’t account for cold streaks and the whole team is cold. What’s cooler than being cool? Ice cold ! Alright alright alright alright alright .
Ha! Predicting hot and cold streaks is next to impossible so you’re right, we don’t account for that. One thing about baseball is that some of the best times to buy is when market depresses on a team/player on a “cold streak”. It requires patience to stick with a team/ player during these times but also reaps benefits long term.
What you guys think about Domingo Santana?
I like that he hits leadoff, but I don’t like the matchup today with Garcia. Think there are other pitchers to target.
Please add Trevor brown catcher for sfg . They finally added him on fd eligible
Yup added. Had been having issues pinning down a reliable projection. But he’s there now.
Latos as a sleeper pitcher?
60 from eickhoff and zero from Harper/Seager! Who’d thought?
It’s crazy. Eickhoff was just a hair behind Leake and Rea (on DK) in our system, but those decimal places worth of value cost big time in not having him. Rea, overall was fine. Leake got Lucroy’d
Any advice on Hammel tonight for the Cubs? The last betting line I saw has Chicago at -149 and their offense is good enough to provide run support.
Actually almost wrote him up for the night slate. He’s second overall pts/$ play on FD in our system. I like him and may even be a little less risky than Hamels considering the pricing differences and the parks
That’s what I like to hear. His price is right (mid-7’s) on DK so he should allow room for some good bats.
Agreed. The only reason to not play him is you maybe don’t need to save a ton on bats on that slate.
Is Strasburg a must for cash games today? I am thinking of firing up Velaquez and Pomeranz in cash and loading up on bats? Thoughts on that or do I need Strasburg for cash for sure? Please help lol
I don’t think he’s a must, no. Playing Velasquez v righty-heavy Pads is fine too and allows to spend up on Coors. I will likely split entries between the two.
So you think its okay to roll with Velaquez and Pomeranz as my two starting pitchers on DK and load up on bats?
Hey Doug, Velaquez not listed on optimizer for DK. He has been posted on DK for $7300.
Yikes! Great catch. I audited this last night and could have sworn he was there. I pushed through an update. He’s there now.
Richard, I noticed that too. Also whats your thoughts on my question that I posted above?
Don’t think Strasburg a must you could save a little and go Cole but don’t usually take pitchers going against each other in slate this big
I’m going Velasquez to load up on bats but I suck at this so u might want to go another route.
Arrenado or carpenter?
I prefer Carpenter.
Agreed.
Don’t usually use BvP when making choices because of sample size but carpenter 15-33 vs peralta
This is on DK though where I need to take two pitchers. Is it a bad idea to take both Velaquez and Pomeranz?
It’s limiting for upside in GPPs, though honestly DK has devalued the W so much that it might not matter a ton.
It would be in cash games.
Any suggestions on the early slate? I’m just gonna
run 1 tourney and play dk
This is my possible cash game lineup, anyone care to give my some thoughts on what they think?
P: Velaquez
P: Pomeranz
C: Trevor Brown (assuming Posey is out again)
1B: Ryan Zimmerman
2B: Daniel Murphy
3B: Matt Carpenter
SS: Trevor Story
OF: Bryce Harper
OF: Hunter Pence
OF: Carlos Gonzalez
Michael, I don’t play cash but like strategy for GPP on DK where a win is equivalent to 2 strikeouts. It allows you to get ALL of the big bats in
Thanks for your opinion. Thoughts on Zimmerman he is one that I am really unsure on.
The Rays are due for a big game and Archer on the mound will empower the team as usual in my eyes. They are playing at home ++, and Kevin Cash has not faulted any of the team chemistry letting the guys try and fail on their own with no interference, helping out with the confidence in them. I honestly think Salazar will implode if Archer can pull his magic and keep it through the 4th. My crazy gut feeling personal opinion.
I’m liking Moss facing Peralta more. Last time optimizer spit him out he crushed it
Question: I’ve been doing AWESOME using the optimizer for basketball lately (7 night winning streak!). Not the same story for baseball. I’ve been getting killed. Does anybody have any “baseball optimizer strategy” that has worked that you’d like to share? Does the seasons just need to “settle in” more before we get better data? Thanks for everything!
Ive been using half if not more of what the optimizer throws out and then putting my own players in either I like or I have a gut feeling about. That has worked great for me so far as I have cashed in all by one night of the MLB season so far.
Get the free DFSR book if you don’t already have it. There are so many unique dynamics with the MLB that would take a page to type! Good luck.
@gerry , The season has not settled in yet. There have just been some insane freak of nature players that have come out of nowhere this last week that noone could predict. My personal opinion right now is to leave the tournaments alone or play in ones that have less than 5000 players and make your bankroll up by playing 50/50’s. I have found a person in head to head matchups that does not check their lineups for active or inactive and he/she plays everyday and everyday I beat them for an easy win that isn’t even close allowing me to double up 100 bucks everyday.
I’m probably going to write a stand-alone feature about this, but it’s worth noting again that if you’re coming over from NBA, MLB is very, very different. It requires significantly more nuance. Where in NBA we could typically take the top one or two optimal lineups to the bank, MLB (IMHO) dictates playing many more variations with specific stacking pieces.
Any new news on Posey?
Yeah that’s the big question for this slate. I am hopeful we’ll have a lineup within the next hour.
Biggest question of my line up.. Posey or Brown.. Will they save Posey for the LAD series or will 3 days rest be too much? MLB!!! Gotta love it!
If you are playing in H2H games is there any rhyme or reason to selecting an opponent to play to increase your odds of winning?
Have Garcia in who’s a lefty. Brewers throwing out 8 righties. Should I be concerned? Leaning towards Velasquez now?
I wouldn’t go above the $5 games and I if you see someone with 20+ options I’d avoid. Beyond that, knowing some of the pros to avoid is helpful
What are some good late game stacks top 3 for late games
Getting nervous..About to put in Trevor Brown..I have not heard anything on Posey yet.
That’s a good sign…. IMHO. I think he will play but Brown could be the sleeper!
Is Latos a sneaky play? The Twins are dreadful!
talking about DK
looking at
Latos
Velqa
Hundley
Moss
Murphy
Arenado
Story
Carco
Hazelbaker
Parra
20 mins and counting!!!! Thoughts Dougie!!!!!!!
I tend to agree with you Cory. Gut instinct!!!!!
Still stressin me out, Steven!
What are some
Good stacks for late games?
Tell me about it..Dammit..Brown it is…..Yikes!!! If I cash in you will certainly get a shout out!!!!! 🙂
As of right now I’m removing Posey from lineups. too risky that he doesn’t play
Cheers
Doug you got anything?
There it is. Thank you.
I think if you play either one of them you will be fine… but they have to PLAY. If noy go w Hundley. I will split em. Shows em both playing on MLB… maybe Brown a DH?! Who knows. GOOD LUCK!
Nobody answering What are some good stacks for tonight lol
Good idea. I think I will split with them both.
I”m not playing tonight, but in my opinion the Cubbies are red hot right now.
No Hundley for Colorado
Is he NS?
and posey is IN
Per BaseballPress.com
Posey hitting 3rd
Hundley OUT (Wolters getting the start in the 8 hole)
Awesome. Thanks Brad!!!! Good luck everyone!!!
now what to do, grrrr lol
I just dumped Posey back in my lineups except 1
Yeah – gotta make room for him though lol….This is why I love DK over fanduel, have time to think and tinker.
LeMahieu bump batting leadoff
Burn. Between pushing out updates wasn’t able to export Posey into any lineups on FD. Literally missed deadline by 1 second
Rather be in that spot than being a second too late to get Blackmon out.
would you go Lemahieu over Murphy?
yes
Thx Doug!
So with Posey in and Brown out I need to change a few things up. Do you guys prefer Ramos or Wolters at catcher now for a cheaper play?
Also do you like Pence or Posey better?
Wolters and Posey better
The consensus I’m starting to see on this board is that DK is a better place to play due to the Lock rules. I play FD because I cashed in BIG on a tournament awhile ago, but I may start playing more DK. DSFR….I’m gonna be a little sad that BB is done for the year..It was a blast..But FOOTBALL is on its way and I cant wait to hear the chatter then!!! Thanks for what you guys do!!!
Wolters or Lucroy?
Wolters/Span or Parra or Pagen
or
Lucroy/Moss
Doug,
Will FantasyAces ever be added to the optimizer? I want to give you guys my money but need Aces as a New Yorker!
Cheers,
Walrus
Want to go ahead and apologize to everyone now. I was outside shooting hoops and Velasquez retires first five batters. I come in and turn it on, two batters get on. Feel responsible for this somehow
Doug, real quick. Your advice has helped me win money in the past so I wanted your opinion.
Lucroy/Moss
or
Wolters/Parra
Oof. I like both of these. I think Wolters Parra is a little better.
Yeah I like them both too, but I was leaning slightly to Wolters/Parra so thats what it is. Thanks again. Hopefully today turns it around, last night was first night Ive not cashed in MLB.
Dude..Cmon…It’s a game.
Glad I put rajai Davis in!!!
Scored 160 on DK and didn’t even get a 50/50. Wow.