Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/13/16

 

Wednesday night is bitter=sweet. The schedule brings 14 games but signals the finale of another NBA season. DFS players will have to find something else to do until Saturday (I can recommend a site with great DFS projections and picks for MLB, NHL, and many other sports!). Along with the huge slate comes a tremendous amount of uncertainty. Only half the games have lines posted less than 24 hours before they start. Some teams are still vying for playoff qualification and/or seeding. Other teams are playing out the string. Many stars cleared out their mental lockers games ago. Other players (even entire starting lineups) may be sitting to rest and avoid injury before the playoffs. Just listing all the variables in play would take an entire article.

Below are picks to form the nucleus of your Wednesday lineups. You’ll notice a few commonalities. Most are on teams with something still to play for (as of this writing – but even that’s in flux, pending Tuesday night’s results). A few players are from teams that haven’t been playing for anything in a while, but they’re (more) predictable, as there’s little reason to expect significant changes in rotations, usage, or minutes. All are pretty much cash game recommendations. Tournament lineups typically contain many of the same players, but be aware that there will be more punt/flier opportunities than any other night. Of course, many won’t be clear until right before tipoff…

Wednesday’s games are essentially separated into two smaller slates. Ten games tip at 8:00ET. Be sure to note this - it's an hour later than usual. The remaining four games tip at 10:30ET. That creates more options for late-night contests, but also presents additional challenges for full-slate participants. The Jazz will know before tip if they’re playing for anything, but we won’t know before lineup lock. More chaos. If ever there were a day to follow breaking news, Wednesday is it. Fortunately, DFSR has your back on this.

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POINT GUARD

Seth Curry - FD 6100 DK 5000
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 30.06 DK Proj. Pts - 31.47

If you watched the Kings on Monday, you saw that Steph’s younger brother has game. He shot, dished, and displayed a handle that looked an awful lot like his older brother (Ok, maybe he didn’t shoot from 30 feet, but you get the idea). The matchup brings mixed news: Houston plays at hyper-speed but has a playoff spot on the line. The Defense Vs. Position (DvP) is a little misleading. The Rockets are in the bottom third of the league defending PGs, but Patrick Beverly is known for his defense. Still, with Rondo shut down, Seth Curry will have the ball in his hands an awful lot. I see no reason he won’t be productive during that time. He is the point guard with the best points-per-dollar (Pts/$) projection on DraftKings (DK) and is a strong option on FanDuel (FD) despite the markedly higher price.

Damian Lillard - FD 8100 DK 8700
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 38.66 DK Proj. Pts - 41.64

Will the Blazers play the Clips, Thunder or Spurs in the first round of the playoffs? Do they care? Absolutely!. Lillard will have plenty on the line, and does anyone play with a bigger chip on his shoulder? Now magnify. The Nuggets might stand to gain (lottery position) by losing, though I’d never suggest an NBA team would tank (?!?!?!?). In all seriousness, you have to be hyper-competitive just to get to this level, and it’ll be hard for Denver not to want to play spoiler. I’ll take an uber-motivated Lillard anyway, especially if I’m looking to spend at a higher price point.

Stephen Curry - FD 10300 DK 10600
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 45.63 DK Proj. Pts - 49.53

Speaking of competitive and motivated… Seth’s older brother and his running mates are on a mission. I’m sure Memphis would rather be seeded 5th than 7th, but given their depleted roster and the circumstances, how are they going to do much about it? The Dubs have been out of synch lately (I’d attribute it to self-generated pressure), but I suspect Draymond Green will scare anyone that needs it into hyper-focus. History is, well, history. I always love to see it made, and I do like Steph (though I understand why maybe 1% of the population might not). A little DFS-generated interest never hurt. I’m going to find a way to get him into a lineup. He’s likely to put up some serious fantasy points while he’s there.

For a sneaky tourney play, keep an eye on Ronnie Price (I’m actually going to forego “price” puns – you’re welcome), whose multiple is particularly high on FD.

SHOOTING GUARD

Marcus Thornton - FD 4000 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.78 DK Proj. Pts - 25.8

Ok, so I lied. This pick is from a team that isn’t playing for anything and only recently fell out of contention. However, we’ve seen what to expect from the Wall-less Wizards, and Marcus Thornton looks like a lock to provide monster value. He’s easily the Pts/$ play of the night at SG on FD (note that he’s a SF on DK, and the top SF there). Even after a 17% price bump, he could easily post an 8x. The game dynamic may be a little unusual, with the Hawks vying for playoff position and the Wizards vying for valet position. Still, like the Nuggets, the Wizards are professionals, and Thornton loves to shoot. Regardless of developments on other teams, this will be a strong pick.

Rodney Hood - FD 5400 DK 5300
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.14 DK Proj. Pts - 30.76

Depending on how events unfold in H-Town earlier Wednesday, the Jazz may essentially be in a playoff game. The good news is it’d be against the Lakers. Rodney Hood shot 1-for-11 Monday and still almost put up a 4x. He’s been a lock for 5x for weeks and even threw in an 8x recently for good measure. I’m not sure his Usage goes up a whole lot despite the Stifle Tower’s uncertain status (if you saw the injury in real-time, you’d have a hard time envisioning Gobert taking the court 48 hours later). Still, a few extra shots will need to be distributed, and he’s as likely as anyone on the Jazz to get them. The DFSR system likes Hood’s floor/ceiling combo on FD and DK. Oh, and the Mamba (finally) says goodbye. No matter the playoff implications, this game should at least be interesting… Why not have a little vested DFS interest to boot?

James Harden - FD 11100 DK 11300
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 56.41 DK Proj. Pts - 59.6

We KNOW the Rockets will be in playoff mode on Thursday. James Harden saw his DK price go up despite a poor performance – I think the market’s trying to tell us something. He’ll be on the court and running the show (even if he’s technically the shooting guard), and Houston won’t let up until the game is double-secret-probation locked down. No concern about minutes here. The Beard has a 4x floor and a ceiling I’ve never seen at $11k+ prices (not that we see those often). Given all the low-cost options that’ll be available, the situation and value both call for Harden as your luxury item of the night.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Nikola Mirotic - FD 5200 DK 5600
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 29.2 DK Proj. Pts - 31.81

We saw what the Bulls look like in end-of-season mode on Monday. Mirotic didn’t play particularly well and still put up a 6x. While listed at SF on DK (not a bad thing given the positional value on the night), he’s one of the Bulls’ only remaining big bodies, so he’ll see court time. That opportunity should translate into fantasy points, making him the top Pts/$ play on FD at the position. The Sixers are on tap, so no worries there. With two teams playing out the season’s bitter end and little reason to expect changes from their previous outings, this feels like a safe as well as strong play. I like that, and so should you.

Robert Covington - FD 6700 DK 6900
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 35.56

On the opposite side of the CHI/PHI matchup, the Cov continues to bring the DFS love. His multiples have spiked along with his minutes in the last few games. His price has gone up as well, but not commensurately. Like the Bulls, there’s little reason to expect much change in the Sixers’ rotations, usage, or minutes. DFSR is seeing lots of shots, points, and boards in his immediate future. That’s typically a good combination in DFS.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 9900 DK 9800
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 46.91 DK Proj. Pts - 48.04

Why? Because I love to write Greek Freak… and you have to spend your dollars somewhere. He’s not a Pts/$ beast, but is among the better high-end options. The Pacers are playing for seeding and have a strong DvP against small forwards. However, Giannis is really hard to characterize in positional terms (hence the whole “Freak” thing), so DvP carries less weight. He had been on a tear, but wasn’t so dominant last time out. His price dipped a bit as a result, so this represents a bit of a bargain opportunity, and other owners may fade him. If you have some salary to spare, this is a solid spot to utilize it.

Gordon Hayward - FD 7300 DK 7300
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.45 DK Proj. Pts - 35.5

An end-of-season throw-in (I’d say freebie, but these are all on the house), if the Jazz are looking to get in the postseason, Hayward will have to get them there. He’s the force on his team, and this is a motivational play as much as anything (the value is ok but not great). If you like your players to have skin in the game, he may be your man. Unfortunately, we may not know until right before tipoff (or later). You may want to reserve this pick for sites allowing late lineup swaps.

On the tournament side of things, keep an eye on James Ennis (minutes and shots) and Mario Hezonja (Oladipo is out).

 

POWER FORWARD

Ersan Ilyasova - FD 3900 DK 3400
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.22 DK Proj. Pts - 29.06

We saw Monday what Ilyasova can do when Vucevic and Gordon are not on the floor. Can anyone say 10x? I’m just bitter I missed it after he burned me a couple of games ago. He is literally the Pts/$ play of the day on DK, and far and away the top PF option on FD. Yes, the Hornets are playing for something and have a top-5 DvP on power forwards. At near-punt prices, unless his teammates get back on the floor, you still need to get Ilyasova in your lineup.

Jon Leuer - FD 4000 DK 3700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 21.78 DK Proj. Pts - 22.32

Alex Len - FD 6000 DK 5600
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 31.02 DK Proj. Pts - 31.56

Leuer and Len are both coming off very nice games, in part for the same reason: Tyson Chandler. The veteran sustained a concussion two games ago and missed Monday’s tilt. He’s officially questionable, but my guess is he doesn’t rush back from head trauma. Assuming that’s the case, both power forwards (Len is a center on DK) will again see enough of a minutes bump that they’re simply mispriced. That’s literally the definition of DFS value, and it’s highly advisable to run these guys on Wednesday. If you’re on FD and roll with Ilyasova, which one will probably depend on your roster construction (salary constraints). On DK, you can run Ilyasova, Leuer, and Len if you’re so inclined.

Bobby Portis - FD 4000 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 25.23 DK Proj. Pts - 25.93

I’m not going to hard-sell Portis. On DK Mirotic is a PF option you really shouldn’t pass up. Portis is really only suited for a tourney consideration. Why? If he gets 29 minutes again, he’ll actually have to try not return value at these prices. Let me reiterate: TOUR-NA-MENT.

 

CENTER

Henry Sims - FD 4000 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 21.7 DK Proj. Pts - 22.31

As the top Pts/$ option at center on FD and second on DK, Sims is your punt option for the position. He went 2-for-9 from the field and still put up a 7x on Monday. He’s playing the Raptors, who are slotted into the 2nd seed in the East and average defending the post. If you trust that he’ll get 30 minutes of run again, you should also find him very hard to pass up. That DK projection is ridiculous (as in high, not inaccurate).

Nikola Jokic - FD 6300 DK 5300
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 33.49 DK Proj. Pts - 34.48

The Nuggets visit Portland on Wednesday, where they’ll find a motivated opponent (as discussed above). For DFS purposes, that doesn’t mean much when it comes to centers, as the Blazers are dead last in DvP on the position. Jokic is the Denver center with the consistent minutes and production. His running buddy Nurkic put up an 11x two games ago and found his way onto many rosters on Monday, only to leave many owners less than pleased. Stay on Jokic – he’s the much (much) safer option. He’s particularly attractive on DK with the steep relative discount.

Greg Monroe - FD 5800 DK 5500
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 30.01 DK Proj. Pts - 30.44

One final pick because it’s the final day of the season. Monroe is going against the Pacers, who are playing to avoid the Cavs in the first round and are slightly above average in DvP on centers. Why the pick then? He put up a 7x last time out and has the highest floor at the position. For cash games, that warrants consideration. He’s also a potential pivot play for those running multiple tourney lineups.

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