With the first week or so out of the way, baseball is getting into the grind and that's when it gets fun! Tonight we have a 12 game slate that has a couple aces, some gas cans and a game in Coors. Let's get into it!
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Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @WSH
FD - 40.61 DK - 22.64
Strasburg will be meeting up with the Braves once again after starting the year with an average start against them. In that start, Strasburg went 6 innings and only struck out 4. You can expect much better numbers in this one as Strasburg has a career K/9 rate of over 10. While the Braves don't strike out a bunch, when Strasburg has his stuff working it doesn't matter who's at the plate. I expect Dusty Baker to let Strasburg go about 110 pitches and should be able to dominate these guys. This game has an over/under of 7 1/2 and the Braves are -250 which tells puts the Braves run projection around 2.8.
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CHC
FD - 35.71 DK - 18.9
Lackey struggled mightily in his first start in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. I am throwing out that start due to the fact they were in the second best hitters park in the league. Lackey will get to pitch at home now where he has a career wOBA of .279 compared to .316 on the road. The reds are not a team I am scared of as they have a ton of strikeouts scattered through the lineup. Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesoraco and Adam Duvall all have over 18% strikeout rates. I prefer Lackey in tournaments as he does have a very low floor.
Early Slate - Taijuan Walker
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.67
Miguel Montero will be facing off against Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds. Simon gave up a pitiful 16 homers and a .369 wOBA to lefties last season and has shown so sign of that being an outlier. Simon is a pitcher I will target against until he is taken out of the rotation, which should be soon. Montero is one of my favorite catchers to target as he is in a lethal Cubs lineup that gets a ton of runners on base. Montero will usually see a few opportunities per night to drive them in and should be able to against Simon.
Opponent - LAD (Wood) Park - @LAD
FD - 8.38 DK - 6.64
Castillo will be facing off with an average lefty in Alex Wood in an average ballpark. Castillo has hit southpaws well as evidenced by his 106 wRC+ last season. On the other hand, Alex Wood has struggled against righties as exhibited by a .343 wOBA and 14 home runs given up last year. Castillo has gotten off to a rather slow start and should look to pick it up here. Castillo is more of a tournament play for me due to his boom or bust nature.
Early Slate - Travis D'Arnaud
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.6 DK - 8.96
Tex is once again in the picks column and for good reason. He is facing off with a weak lefty in a spectacular hitters park. J.A. Happ gave up 14 home runs and a .307 wOBA to righties last season. However, his peripherals suggested he should of been worse as shown by his 4.11 xFIP to righties. Teixeira has hit lefties well his entire career with a 137 wRC+. When you add up these facts to go along with the fact that they are in the Rogers Centre, you have a recipe for success.
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 15.03 DK - 11.89
Brandon Belt has started off the year hot and looks to keep it up in Coors Field. Jordan Lyles has given up a career .358 wOBA to left handed hitters and has shown so signs of improvement. This game currently has an 11 over/under and Belt will be in the middle of the Giants lineup. Belt has hit righties extremely well over the course of the last 3 years with a 142 wRC+. Coors Field is only going to magnify these numbers. Brandon Belt is my pick of the day for a homer.
Opponent - DET (Greene) Park - @PIT
FD - 12.63 DK - 10.02
John Jaso will continue to be in this article until his price goes way up or he gets moved down in the lineup. Neither of which are occurring tonight, which makes Jaso a terrific play. Shane Greene is a below average right hander and has exhibited a career .385 wOBA to lefties. On the other hand, Jaso has been a righty masher of the course of his career as shown by his gaudy 157 wRC+ over the past 3 seasons. The park is not ideal but is much better for lefties than it is for righties.
Early Slate - Albert Pujols
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 12.83 DK - 10.4
Joe Panik is coming off a good game in Coors and should have a better one tonight. As mentioned above, Jordan Lyles is atrocious and struggles vs lefties at a pitiful .358 wOBA clip. Panik will likely be hitting 2nd and should have some RBI chances as well as some run scored opportunities with Posey (assuming Posey plays) and Belt behind him. Panik is a player with average power, however, being in Coors Field gives him + power and I think Panik has a pretty good shot of getting one out here. I am comfortable with Panik in all formats.
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.88
Dozier has been very average to start the year and should start regressing to his mean very soon. He has been a 126 wRC+ hitter against lefties over the course of his career. On the contrary, Rodon has struggled quite harshly against righties and gave up a .350 wOBA to them just last year. I do prefer Dozier in tournaments as Rodon is a boom or bust pitcher.
Early Slate - Dee Gordon
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.71
Here is another Giants player and I will not go too much into why he is a good play. Just go ahead and read up on Brandon belt and Joe Panik. Crawford has hit righties very well and had a 123 wRC+ against them last season. I am expecting Crawford to have plenty of RBI opportunities as Lyles will have some serious trouble with this entire lineup.
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.61 DK - 9.28
Corey Seager is currently the MLB's top prospect and rightfully so. Seager came up last season and immediately made an impact with a 185 wRC+ against righties. He will only improve with age and is someone you should be targeting until he is priced like a Carlos Correa. Here he takes on Rubby De La Rosa who is an absolute atrocious pitcher. De La Rosa gave up an astounding .404 wOBA to last season and his peripherals suggested that was accurate. Go ahead and target the Dodgers lefties.
Early Slate - Ketel Marte
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.13 DK - 8.82
Plouffe is a player I rostered a ton last season as he seems to always payoff against lefties. We have already mentioned Rodon and while I wont go into how bad he is again, I will go into Plouffe and his gaudy splits. Plouffe has a 124 wRC+ over the last 2 season and his BABIP suggest that is too low. Combine the fact that Rodon struggles against righties and Plouffe smashes lefties and you get yourself a home run! hopefully. That's how it works in baseball, right?
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.64 DK - 9.28
Franco is a player that is going to be in this league a long time and is going to be the lone bright spot for the Phillies until J.P. Crawford is called up. Colin Rea is an average pitcher that has given up a .331 wOBA to righties. Rea is actually worse vs righties even though he is a righty. Franco is the same hitter against both southpaws and righties, which is a good thing. I look for Franco to get this Phillies offense started tonight against Rea.
Early Slate - David Wright
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.18 DK - 10.25
While I'm sure you don't need to hear how bout Rodon is against righties, you do need to hear how good Miguel Sano is. In 2015, Sano held a 154 wRC+ against lefties and that was when he was just 21 years old. Sano is only going to get stronger and better this year and should certainly improve on those numbers this year. I expect Sano to be hitting in the 3 or 4 spot which only adds to the appeal.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @STL
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.52
Hazelbaker has been great for the Cardinals since being called and will likely continue hitting 2nd against righties. Anderson gave up a .325 wOBA last year to lefties and his peripherals suggested he may decline this year. Hazelbaker does not have a sample size big enough to use but has been extremely good against righties in the minor leagues. While that is not always a good measure to use, we don't have an option. Hazelbaker brings speed and power upside which makes me comfortable using him in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @WSH
FD - 16.56 DK - 12.91
Harper is on pace to be one of the best hitters of all time. He is the 15th youngest player in the league and is on pace to have another record year at 23 years old. Matt Wisler is just another bad righty in his way and will do nothing to stand between Harper and another productive game. Harper sported an astounding 2019 wRC+ last year against righties. 100 is average and 150 is usually regarded as great. Wisler on the other hand, gave up a .419 wOBA to lefties last season. This is not going to end well for him.
Opponent - SF (Peavy) Park - @COL
FD - 14.34 DK - 11.31
CarGo has been great to begin the year and will look to continue his good play against Jake Peavy in Coors Field. Peavy used to be a pitcher to avoid but at this point in his career you can target him. His velocity has dropped around 6 MPH since 2009 and his secondary pitches don't move. When you combine that with Coors Field, you get a horrible pitcher. Gonzalez has smashed righties to a 167 wOBA clip over the past 3 seasons and is not appearing to slow down. I am comfortable with Gonzalez in all formats!
Early Slate - Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes, Seth Smith
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View Comments
Boom! lets get it!
$$BOOM$$ another one! Lets roll it out again today!
FD so solid last night. Admittedly I looked at Burns and tried my best to convince myself against him. Glad I didn't.
Today looks like a day to swerve away from Coors exposure to have anything even resembling decent pitching. You almost have to have Straus or Carrasco today and those Coors salaries just aren't clicking with that.
It's interesting. Our system is saying mostly that except, actually it's giving Mike Leake as a consideration at SP on FD. Good matchup against Brewers and he is an innings guy (averaged 6.4 per start last season). I'll admit it doesn't feel great.
It does think spending up on bats is correct. Though you can lock in Stras and get projected scores only 0.6 pts less. So it's very close.
Thank you to the optimizer to convince me to put in Morton last night!! Cha ching
Wanted to give a quick shout out to you guys. Used what you guys said on here as a guide and made budget fit to finish 1st out of 350 people for $150 last night. Been doing the same in basketball for the past few weeks and trippled my account balance over there as well. Appreciate the great information as well as all the comments the other users provide.
I'm playing in a tournament tonight and I'm trying to figure out the best stack. The Giants seem enticing due to playing at Coors and a having a good pitcher matchup but of course the price reflects that. On the other hand I'm learning towards a Cubs stack since they just flat out have a good lineup. Would love to hear any of y'alls thoughts.
I am leaning toward Cubbies. There are some value salaries there unlike the Coors teams that allows you to get a good pitcher. Plus, Simon flat out sucks.
A Detroit stack is in play today as well.
Def Stackin Giants today.
Anyone going to try the early slate today?
Always. Cash that money out and pay for the main!